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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860965 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #570 on March 15, 2020, 02:54:32 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
As you know RD, I wouldn't wipe my arse on ZH, even if I was out of bog roll. I've been convinced for years that it's a Kremlin psy-op machine operating in full view.



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Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #571 on March 15, 2020, 03:09:47 pm by Copps is Magic »
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I have not seen that in the Netherlands. Do you have a source/link? The information from the RIVM has been that all the fatalities have been over 70 with underlying health issues.

I have obviously been following the progression here in the Netherlands, and over the last few days (in fact, over 10 days now) the increase in infections rate has progressively gone down. The last increase was 18% form yesterday to today. It is, infact, the lowest daily increase so far.

That's interesting to me because there was (until the last couple of days) basically very little response from anyone here. The gov have been very slow/relaxed about it. But the cases are not going up as dramatically as might be expected.

drfcdrfc

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #572 on March 15, 2020, 03:19:26 pm by drfcdrfc »
Germanys borders closing. In our supply chain, 70% of parts come from Germany. So this should be interesting, I would imagine working from home isn't even going to be possible

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #573 on March 15, 2020, 03:39:37 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Goods are still flowing, its mainly people they are trying to stop.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #574 on March 15, 2020, 03:56:20 pm by Filo »
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #575 on March 15, 2020, 04:09:14 pm by drfchound »
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home







Is that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #576 on March 15, 2020, 04:19:42 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
If there is anyone left out there not taking this seriously, knock this into their heads.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JasonYanowitz/status/1238977743653687296

selby

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #577 on March 15, 2020, 04:30:19 pm by selby »
  Copps, a lot more younger people smoke in the Netherlands and France than here, in the Netherlands not always tobacco.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #578 on March 15, 2020, 05:26:38 pm by bpoolrover »
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I have not seen that in the Netherlands. Do you have a source/link? The information from the RIVM has been that all the fatalities have been over 70 with underlying health issues.

I have obviously been following the progression here in the Netherlands, and over the last few days (in fact, over 10 days now) the increase in infections rate has progressively gone down. The last increase was 18% form yesterday to today. It is, infact, the lowest daily increase so far.

That's interesting to me because there was (until the last couple of days) basically very little response from anyone here. The gov have been very slow/relaxed about it. But the cases are not going up as dramatically as might be expected.
[/https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/dutch-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-20-new-measures-due-in-brabant/

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #579 on March 15, 2020, 05:33:35 pm by Copps is Magic »
Thats doesn't saything about under 60s being in critical cair. It reinforces what we aleady know.

Quote
The eight overnight deaths involved people aged 59 to 94 and most had underlying health problems, the RIVM said.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #580 on March 15, 2020, 05:38:50 pm by bpoolrover »
Sorry I posted it to confirm why you said

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #581 on March 15, 2020, 05:39:37 pm by River Don »
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I have not seen that in the Netherlands. Do you have a source/link? The information from the RIVM has been that all the fatalities have been over 70 with underlying health issues.

I have obviously been following the progression here in the Netherlands, and over the last few days (in fact, over 10 days now) the increase in infections rate has progressively gone down. The last increase was 18% form yesterday to today. It is, infact, the lowest daily increase so far.

That's interesting to me because there was (until the last couple of days) basically very little response from anyone here. The gov have been very slow/relaxed about it. But the cases are not going up as dramatically as might be expected.

It was a headline on Zerohedge. So as BST would tell you, it's not the most reliable source. However The Independant has run a similar story based on the observations of an Italian doctor. Make of it what you will.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/not-just-seniors-french-doctors-report-50-icu-patients-under-60-years-old-netherlands-under

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #582 on March 15, 2020, 05:45:36 pm by River Don »
I hadn't seen it before but the clip with testimony from Italian health workers on that Zerohedge page is an eye opener too.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #583 on March 15, 2020, 05:54:12 pm by River Don »
If that Milanese doctor is to be believed, it seems they don't have enough rescources to treat anyone in critical care above the age of 60. They are just left to peg it.

This will be one reason why the figures are so disproportionately weighted towards the older generation.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #584 on March 15, 2020, 06:04:57 pm by Copps is Magic »
I think it would be negligent to say the least if the UK and other governments weren't doing their absolute upmost right now to increase ICU, ventilator, oxygen therapy capacity etc.

i_ateallthepies

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #585 on March 15, 2020, 06:33:43 pm by i_ateallthepies »
BST,

Yes, it is reported cases not ACTUAL.
The point being that you will never know the actual figure, only an estimate based on deaths and assumptions about non-declared recoveries.

You say the modelling is based upon "well validated epidemic models".

Any models can only be referenced to data from other flu-like contagion, I am unaware of any modelled specifically to Covid 19. Do you know of any such?

It is perfectly possible that Covid-19 will follow a different path.

Your last paragraph says "it will take 4 weeks for us to get from our actual current number of cases (about 10,000) to the number of real cases that Italy currently has (probably about 150,000)".
Both of those figures are estimates, and there is no indication in the confidence of the forecasts.
 
The issue is that there are wide error bars on the calculation, such that it is very difficult to target a specific point of intervention.

Yet the UK strategy hinges upon being able to do just that.......unless you think that the UK is holding back precisely to allow infection to spread in pursuit of early "herd immunity".

All of which is why some in the scientific community are asking for the modelling and its data inputs to be open, not inside a "black box".


I posted about this of Friday after listening to an expert on the subject being interviewed on Five Live.  She spoke of herd immunity and explained why it will offer no protection for anyone with this virus this time around.  If herd immunity has been proffered as part of the reasoning for UK government strategy then I'm afraid it fills the room with a strong stench of bullshit.

i_ateallthepies

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #586 on March 15, 2020, 06:40:01 pm by i_ateallthepies »
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...

That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.

After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.

I would have thought that the design and manufacture of such equipment is a pretty specialist field and if the government are meaning they're exploring the possibility of companies switching their operation to start at the drawing board then it clearly will offer nothing in the way of results.  You then have to wonder why they would say it at all.  Even if they simply said they're going to ask existing manufacturers to explore all options to expand manufacturing capacity, they should have been doing that two months ago.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #587 on March 15, 2020, 06:42:17 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
If that Milanese doctor is to be believed, it seems they don't have enough rescources to treat anyone in critical care above the age of 60. They are just left to peg it.

This will be one reason why the figures are so disproportionately weighted towards the older generation.

It's inevitable.

Do the numbers. Look at the number of cases and look at the capacities of health services.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #588 on March 15, 2020, 06:46:15 pm by River Don »
I hate to say this but it's almost a couple of years since I watched my Dad be taken by pneumonia whilst on and off a ventilator for a few days. It's  a grim business.

I'm not that old yet but who knows what will happen with the NHS. I think if I find myself gasping for breath in a hospital corridor and they can't treat me, I'd be asking for a big injection of jollop to see me off quickly.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #589 on March 15, 2020, 07:02:09 pm by Copps is Magic »
It seems some western countries are shutting down testing for all but those with severe symtoms in hospital.

Flying in the face of evidence from South Korea which shows that mass testing can help to halt the spread of the virus.

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #590 on March 15, 2020, 07:02:43 pm by Metalmicky »
I saw somewhere that there are some 350 critical care care beds in the private sector in London alone.. I suspect that these will be called upon - along with the use of other private clinics countrywide and military wards if needed.  We'll soon see if we, as Brits, still have the ability to rise to the occasion...

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #591 on March 15, 2020, 07:27:04 pm by Nudga »
For me, the biggest danger is the Kitsons who are stockpiling bog roll and pasta will be the ones running off to A&E because they've sneezed.
It'll be these types of Kitson putting a massive strain on the health service.

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #592 on March 15, 2020, 07:30:42 pm by Metalmicky »
I personally think that the press publicising of the bog roll/pasta stampede has been half the problem... If it wasn't plastered over the press the stampede wouldn't be there....

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #593 on March 15, 2020, 07:33:37 pm by albie »
Letter from members of the science community which calls out the UK approach;
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-scientists-share-fears-uk-21695523

Meanwhile, Hancock reckons "herd immunity" is NOT part of the strategy, directly contradicting Vallance who yesterday said it was?
https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2020/03/15/health-secretary-matt-hancocks-response-to-covid-19-isnt-fooling-anyone/

Guided by the science we will be....taxi for Mr Hancock!

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #594 on March 15, 2020, 07:39:50 pm by wilts rover »
Very, very bad news for the proponents of 'herd immunity'

https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1239071257510854657

tyke1962

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IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #596 on March 15, 2020, 08:11:02 pm by IDM »
It seems some western countries are shutting down testing for all but those with severe symtoms in hospital.

Flying in the face of evidence from South Korea which shows that mass testing can help to halt the spread of the virus.

I find the logic of only testing hospital cases totally illogical - any other knowledge of the spread beyond this can only be guesswork and conjecture based upon computer models of how viruses should work, but what’s to say this one is different.?

Also, by not testing, we don’t know as individuals where the cases are.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #597 on March 15, 2020, 08:56:13 pm by Filo »
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home







Is that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.

Yes

tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #598 on March 15, 2020, 09:22:15 pm by tyke1962 »
If the governments strategy causes a larger loss of life unnecessarily because they failed to protect the public and went their own way will have serious consequences attached to it .

I sincerely hope they've called this right and it isn't a strategy so their policies of the last 10 years aren't exposed for what many of us suspect they are .

At the press conference the other night Johnson flanked by medical experts looked a very worried man , I suspect for reasons his party have massively contributed to .

I'm not for making political gain from this , far from it because I sincerely hope they've called this right ..... However .


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/uk-covid-19-strategy-questions-unanswered-coronavirus-outbreak

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #599 on March 15, 2020, 09:32:25 pm by drfchound »
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

I know of one case self isolating at home







Is that the one that you mentioned the other day, in Dunscroft.

Yes








Has he/she actually contracted the disease or is it precautionary?

 

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