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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860264 times)

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IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #660 on March 16, 2020, 07:16:24 pm by IDM »
My partners daughter works in the pub and her job is on the line..

Do we go to the pub to support her and her colleagues, against government advice.? 

I am beginning to think this is about not paying out insurance, not paying out for tests etc..

The ambiguity is going to cause more panic buying..



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wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #661 on March 16, 2020, 07:39:50 pm by wilts rover »
In the UK we have had panic buying on toilet rolls.

What do you think they have been panic buying in the US (a country that already has an average of 3 guns per person)

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1239611078939750400

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #662 on March 16, 2020, 09:21:18 pm by drfchound »
In the UK we have had panic buying on toilet rolls.

What do you think they have been panic buying in the US (a country that already has an average of 3 guns per person)

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1239611078939750400







I was saying to the wife, only yesterday, I wonder whether we will see anarchy on the streets.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #663 on March 16, 2020, 10:15:21 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Massive news breaking from the epidemiology modellers advising the Govt.

Looks like a 180 degree change of policy coming very quickly.

China-style shutdown to stop the spread of the epidemic. Herd immunity and flattening the curve are off the agenda.

rtid88

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #664 on March 16, 2020, 10:17:22 pm by rtid88 »
Where have you heard this BST???

BillyStubbsTears

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #666 on March 16, 2020, 10:25:15 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I've just read the paper that has sparked this press conference. It's terrifying.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #667 on March 16, 2020, 10:26:29 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
At best, flattening the curve leaves NHS ICUs 8 times overloaded for 3 months.


rtid88

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #669 on March 16, 2020, 10:35:12 pm by rtid88 »
Shit a brick......

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #670 on March 16, 2020, 10:48:57 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Yep. I have done, reading that.

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #671 on March 16, 2020, 11:00:32 pm by Nudga »
I can't open the link

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #672 on March 16, 2020, 11:01:13 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
You got a pdf reader on your phone Nudge?

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #673 on March 16, 2020, 11:03:14 pm by Nudga »
I don't think so

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #674 on March 16, 2020, 11:06:34 pm by SydneyRover »
Herd Instinct: blindly hanging onto any dumb shit suggestion from the nearest idiot.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #675 on March 16, 2020, 11:30:11 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Nudga.

If you can't open it, here's the graph that scared the shit out of me.


BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #676 on March 16, 2020, 11:33:09 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
So even with the best "gentle" lockdown and social distancing, and with the herd immunity built into the model, we exceed ICU bed capacity in the middle of next month and we don't get back in control till August.

So much for flattening the curve.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #677 on March 16, 2020, 11:45:13 pm by River Don »
...but ...it's just a bad case of the flu.

Famous last words.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #678 on March 16, 2020, 11:49:08 pm by IDM »
Forgive me, but does that chart not include social distancing for all, rather than just over 70s.?

Isn’t the difference between mitigation and surpression concluded to be the implementation of social distancing for all.?

The problem then is defining social distancing - what the government has said today is vague - we are advised to employ social distancing but it isn’t mandatory.  So if the population doesn’t comply, surpression probably won’t work

Basically that means no pub etc and working at home for many months, and perhaps only going out to go to the shops and to walk the dog..

Then again this is only a model, a prediction.  I hope the government uses the prediction properly for be benefit of the population as opposed for any macro economic issues..  We need clear direction and leadership to make surpression work..

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #679 on March 16, 2020, 11:54:48 pm by IDM »
For those who haven’t read the paper, the gist is the best way to get on top of the virus is to implement all the surpression measures including social distancing for all, the sooner the better and  for a long time. 

Fairly obvious really but with convincing arguments.

But it says nothing about the effects on the economy, jobs and livelihoods etc, on food supplies and panic buying. 

Those things scare me.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #680 on March 17, 2020, 12:00:11 am by BillyStubbsTears »
IDM.

It assumes that you can't have general social distancing if the economy is going to be able to more or less function. They look at the effect of a stronger lockdown later in the paper. They reckon we CAN keep the cases within the NHS capability if we start that strong lockdown pretty much immediately.

But. It would take 5 months of that to get the cases down to current levels. And if you then relax, you're back at crisis levels within 6 weeks. (FIG 3b if you have the paper.)

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #681 on March 17, 2020, 12:05:17 am by River Don »
The gist is no matter what we do, we're not going to get on top of it.

It's about to ramp up and massively overwhelm the health service and the impact is going to last for months. The outcome of this is going to be a massive depression by the look of it.

The world is about to change in the next couple of weeks.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #682 on March 17, 2020, 12:22:08 am by IDM »
IDM.

It assumes that you can't have general social distancing if the economy is going to be able to more or less function. They look at the effect of a stronger lockdown later in the paper. They reckon we CAN keep the cases within the NHS capability if we start that strong lockdown pretty much immediately.

But. It would take 5 months of that to get the cases down to current levels. And if you then relax, you're back at crisis levels within 6 weeks. (FIG 3b if you have the paper.)

Yes I saw he whole analysis - stronger surpressive measures for longer.  I just didn’t read very much about the effects on the economy etc, then again that wasn’t the purpose of that report.

What was quite stark was the comparative analysis of deaths: do nothing and we could be looking at half a million, impose strict controls before the NHS maxes out and maintain them until ICU usage drops well below capacity (repeating as required) could - according to their predictions - see less than 10000 deaths.


River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #683 on March 17, 2020, 12:24:58 am by River Don »
Not only does the NHS have a serious shortage of ventilators, it has a serious shortage protective equipment for healthcare workers.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/16/not-fit-for-purpose-uk-medics-condemn-covid-19-protection

Such a serious shortage, that one doctor is quoted as saying he's so scared about it, he doesn't know if he can continue working as a doctor.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/im-losing-faith-in-the-leadership-a-doctors-story-coronavirus
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 12:35:54 am by River Don »

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #684 on March 17, 2020, 12:52:37 am by albie »
RD,

The liklihood of loss of front line health professionals will further erode any resilience within the NHS.

It is clear as a bell that Johnson and Hancock are functionally innumerate, and so incapable of reaching rational conclusions based on data analyses. Less clear is why the advisors have taken positions against the mainstream opinion in their field.

BJ is so incompetent he cannot even get the messaging right, let alone the science.
The extent of his incompetence is such that he cannot even see that he is incompetent, and so stand down for a more suitable person.

I fear the worst under these fools.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #685 on March 17, 2020, 01:10:45 am by River Don »
Trump has started referIng to C-19 in his tweets as "the Chinese virus"

The Chinese government have been suggesting the expected second wave of C-19 is going to be the fault of foreigners.

It's pretty obvious where this is heading.

adamtherover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #686 on March 17, 2020, 05:04:21 am by adamtherover »

GazLaz

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #687 on March 17, 2020, 06:03:04 am by GazLaz »
Massive news breaking from the epidemiology modellers advising the Govt.

Looks like a 180 degree change of policy coming very quickly.

China-style shutdown to stop the spread of the epidemic. Herd immunity and flattening the curve are off the agenda.

That was pretty obvious wasn’t it. How the f**k Boris and his two puppets didn’t realise that straight away I’ll never know.

rich1471

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #688 on March 17, 2020, 06:42:56 am by rich1471 »
Just hird all pubs , bars , cafes and restaurants could close as early as Monday

Superspy

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #689 on March 17, 2020, 08:16:33 am by Superspy »
That paper is pretty f**king terrifying, but I've appreciated finally having some real data based on real world assumptions to look at, so thanks for posting it BST.

 

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