Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:09:58 pm

Login with username, password and session length

Links


FSA logo

Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860434 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Ldr

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2655
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #750 on March 18, 2020, 02:28:45 pm by Ldr »
Although 2 things may be in the thinking, hasn't it been reported that young people are less likely to suffer from the virus, and the amount of NHS staff you would lose out of the front line to look after kids at home. It's a hard balancing act. Glad I dont have to decide



(want to hide these ads? Join the VSC today!)

Metalmicky

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 5382
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #751 on March 18, 2020, 02:54:31 pm by Metalmicky »
Although 2 things may be in the thinking, hasn't it been reported that young people are less likely to suffer from the virus, and the amount of NHS staff you would lose out of the front line to look after kids at home. It's a hard balancing act. Glad I dont have to decide

It has.... I also can't see kids wanting to be penned in at home... or the parents wanting them under their feet all day and night either.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #752 on March 18, 2020, 03:17:44 pm by River Don »
Although 2 things may be in the thinking, hasn't it been reported that young people are less likely to suffer from the virus, and the amount of NHS staff you would lose out of the front line to look after kids at home. It's a hard balancing act. Glad I dont have to decide

It has.... I also can't see kids wanting to be penned in at home... or the parents wanting them under their feet all day and night either.

I usually find it isn't difficult keeping them in if they have digital devices. Getting them out into the fresh air can be more of a challenge.

Bristol Red Rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 9429
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #753 on March 18, 2020, 03:42:52 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

It is very short sighted. According to the Imperial College modelling, shutting schools and Universities is key to being able to contain the epidemics in each country to levels that the health services can deal with.

It's all in the timing. Meanwhile, keeping the virus spreading in the wider world whilst keeping the vulnerable in isolation , ie those who would be using the critical health facilities, is the key here. Stopping the virus is not a viable plan.

Metalmicky

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 5382
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #754 on March 18, 2020, 04:26:05 pm by Metalmicky »
Although 2 things may be in the thinking, hasn't it been reported that young people are less likely to suffer from the virus, and the amount of NHS staff you would lose out of the front line to look after kids at home. It's a hard balancing act. Glad I dont have to decide

It has.... I also can't see kids wanting to be penned in at home... or the parents wanting them under their feet all day and night either.

I usually find it isn't difficult keeping them in if they have digital devices. Getting them out into the fresh air can be more of a challenge.

True - would it be worth putting effort into keeping primaries open.  By secondary school many can be left alone without permanent supervision...

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #755 on March 18, 2020, 05:52:21 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Dare to dream!

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 5471
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #756 on March 18, 2020, 05:59:44 pm by Dare to dream! »
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Italy have today recorded their largest death rate....

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #757 on March 18, 2020, 06:00:21 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

Australia not shutting down schools now is insane. Their rate of deaths is about 10 days behind ours and about 25 days behind Italy. If there is one key lesson from this, it is that the sooner you act, the easier it is to control the spread and the shorter thetime you need draconian measures.

With hindsight, we should have been locking down a fortnight ago. But in fairness, we didn't because there wasn't enough information to justify that. Australia doesn't have that excuse. They can see precisely how the spread is going in developed countries and they could save themselves a hell of a lot of deaths and costs if they locked down now. It's bordering on criminal irresponsibility not to be acting now.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #758 on March 18, 2020, 06:06:15 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Italy have today recorded their largest death rate....

Agreed. Bu the rate at which the trend is increasing day by day has been slowing over the past week. That's the first indication of getting on top of it.

2 weeks ago, their number of new deaths per day was doubling every 2 days. This past week, the trend has been doubling about every 6-7 days.

The number of new deaths will keep on increasing for another week or two. But the key thing is, how much it is increasing day on day. If it starts to stabilise at the same number of new deaths per day, it means that their measures have got the spread under control. For now, anyway, whilever the lockdown continues.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #759 on March 18, 2020, 06:09:22 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Put it another way. If the rate of increase of deaths in Italy had carried on increasing at the rate it was doing up to ten days ago, they'd have about 10,000 dead now. In fact the number is about 3000. That is a very significant achievement.

Bristol Red Rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 9429
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #760 on March 18, 2020, 06:24:35 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
Isn't the big prob in Italy with the localisation? Cases here appear to be more widespread, not that we fully know. If so, that gives us some slack. We'll see.

Copps is Magic

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8661
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #761 on March 18, 2020, 07:37:51 pm by Copps is Magic »
Another thing. Many asian countries seem to be now doing rigourous, on the spot testing at borders, while many Western countries have given up on testing the population at large.

South Korean biotech firms are sending half a million testing kits to the west
https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2020031609341102857
(in Korean, again, right click 'translate to english')

Testing helps. It gives you information. Information you can act with, rather than reacting to the situation.

When this all settles, another question our governments and health authorities will have to answer to is why there were such dramatic shortcomings in our testing systems.

To add to what I said here, see this video. 86% of cases remain undiagnosed. If those cases are diagnosed (i.e. tested for) infection rates could be cut by 79%. Its as simple as that, we should have tested from the start and continued testing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s

drfchound

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 29199
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #762 on March 18, 2020, 07:42:50 pm by drfchound »
Another thing. Many asian countries seem to be now doing rigourous, on the spot testing at borders, while many Western countries have given up on testing the population at large.

South Korean biotech firms are sending half a million testing kits to the west
https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2020031609341102857
(in Korean, again, right click 'translate to english')

Testing helps. It gives you information. Information you can act with, rather than reacting to the situation.

When this all settles, another question our governments and health authorities will have to answer to is why there were such dramatic shortcomings in our testing systems.

To add to what I said here, see this video. 86% of cases remain undiagnosed. If those cases are diagnosed (i.e. tested for) infection rates could be cut by 79%. Its as simple as that, we should have tested from the start and continued testing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AToF8O5T86s







I said much the same at tea time tonight CiM.
In fact I have spoken to three people today who suspect that they may have already had the virus but haven’t been tested.

wilts rover

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 10145
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #763 on March 18, 2020, 08:43:56 pm by wilts rover »
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

It is very short sighted. According to the Imperial College modelling, shutting schools and Universities is key to being able to contain the epidemics in each country to levels that the health services can deal with.

It's all in the timing. Meanwhile, keeping the virus spreading in the wider world whilst keeping the vulnerable in isolation , ie those who would be using the critical health facilities, is the key here. Stopping the virus is not a viable plan.


Madness. That was Johnson's original plan that he worked out on the back of a fag packet would cause 50000 premature deaths. Until Imperial College this week pointed out it would be nearer 250000 premature deaths.

We are currently at a death rate higher than Italy at this stage in their outbreak. Stopping it is the ONLY viable plan or the NHS will be overwhelmed in days.

South Korea stopped it by a massive testing programme. China have almost stopped it by testing and lockdown. Taiwan never let it get out of control by testing.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #764 on March 18, 2020, 09:51:31 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Italy have today recorded their largest death rate....

Agreed. Bu the rate at which the trend is increasing day by day has been slowing over the past week. That's the first indication of getting on top of it.

2 weeks ago, their number of new deaths per day was doubling every 2 days. This past week, the trend has been doubling about every 6-7 days.

The number of new deaths will keep on increasing for another week or two. But the key thing is, how much it is increasing day on day. If it starts to stabilise at the same number of new deaths per day, it means that their measures have got the spread under control. For now, anyway, whilever the lockdown continues.

On this topic, there is some dreadful reporting by the BBC. Leading headline talking about Italy's number of new dead "soaring again" but not a word about the real story - that they appear to be getting the rise under control.

The BBC is supposed to "inform, educate and entertain".

Reporting like that does none of those things. It misleads by sensationalising. 

albie

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3611
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #765 on March 18, 2020, 10:12:32 pm by albie »
CIM is right about the need for testing, but even if it is pushed out now it is chasing the original mistake of failing to test at the outset.

Worth repeating than the Imperial study has some assumptions that may not hold.

It is not known if full immunity is conferred by infection, or if it can repeat in a later cycle.
The impact of seasonality is not modelled. This is relevant to the capacity shortfall in the NHS, although we are talking about the extent of under provision here, given the UK austerity fetish since 2010.

Emergency Powers for the next 2 years are in prospect, without sunset clauses.
These may be the lasting legacy if they are not retired in orderly fashion.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #766 on March 19, 2020, 07:46:50 am by River Don »
The Aus gov't is not closing schools saying that we would lose 1/3 of medical staff having to stay home to look after them and the possibility that grandparents would look after a lot of them and be at further risk.

I think that is short sighted. Kids are potentially super spreaders, one gets infected goes to school for a week without symptoms and the majority have it. Then they go home in the evening and mum and dad get it.

It is very short sighted. According to the Imperial College modelling, shutting schools and Universities is key to being able to contain the epidemics in each country to levels that the health services can deal with.

It's all in the timing. Meanwhile, keeping the virus spreading in the wider world whilst keeping the vulnerable in isolation , ie those who would be using the critical health facilities, is the key here. Stopping the virus is not a viable plan.


Madness. That was Johnson's original plan that he worked out on the back of a fag packet would cause 50000 premature deaths. Until Imperial College this week pointed out it would be nearer 250000 premature deaths.

We are currently at a death rate higher than Italy at this stage in their outbreak. Stopping it is the ONLY viable plan or the NHS will be overwhelmed in days.

South Korea stopped it by a massive testing programme. China have almost stopped it by testing and lockdown. Taiwan never let it get out of control by testing.

I'm very hopeful about the antibody test Whitty and Vallance say is very close now.

Once we can start pinpointing those who have recovered, it means slowly, slowly the grip of quarantine can start to be lessened safely. I think it will be a game changer.

ravenrover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 9511
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #767 on March 19, 2020, 09:33:44 am by ravenrover »
No new DOMESTIC cases in China today, if you believe it, but what is actually meant by DOMESTIC?

jackthelad

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 884
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #768 on March 19, 2020, 09:40:04 am by jackthelad »
Lockdown today?

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #769 on March 19, 2020, 10:24:13 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Fascinating read here from a senior economic historian.

https://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/the_war_on/

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #770 on March 19, 2020, 10:24:56 am by BillyStubbsTears »
And this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmromer/status/1240450670320377859

Maybe that's the road to recovery.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #771 on March 19, 2020, 11:53:25 am by River Don »
No new DOMESTIC cases in China today, if you believe it, but what is actually meant by DOMESTIC?

The Chinese government is positioning itself to blame foreigners for a remergence of the virus in a second wave when they try lifting restrictions.

Hence the differentiation. The virus is controlled amongst the domestic population but foreigners might still be carrying it.

Trump is looking to play a similar game labelling it "the Chinese virus"

It's dispicapable behaviour.

SydneyRover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 13576
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #772 on March 19, 2020, 12:17:29 pm by SydneyRover »
A way forward?

''A scientific study, rolled out by the University of Padua, with the help of the Veneto Region and the Red Cross, consisted of testing all 3,300 inhabitants of the town, including asymptomatic people. The goal was to study the natural history of the virus, the transmission dynamics and the categories at risk.

The researchers explained they had tested the inhabitants twice and that the study led to the discovery of the decisive role in the spread of the coronavirus epidemic of asymptomatic people.

When the study began, on 6 March, there were at least 90 infected in Vò. For days now, there have been no new cases''

''The research allowed for the identification of at least six asymptomatic people who tested positive for Covid-19. ‘‘If these people had not been discovered,” said the researchers, they would probably have unknowingly infected other inhabitants''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19

IDM

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 19614
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #773 on March 19, 2020, 12:28:49 pm by IDM »
Sounds logical - more testing on a much wider scale shows where the spread is and identifies who has it, regardless of symptoms.

We simply have to increase testing..

As for the advice to do supermarket shopping online, that’s nigh on f**king impossible now.  I’m tech savvy but it took ages to set up an account with Morrison’s (where we shop) and despite no delivery slots for weeks which is understandable, I can’t even register a payment method.!

How the hell are less tech savvy older people, who have to self isolate, going to follow the advice if the system can’t cope with the demand.

Perhaps the government should arrange for food parcels etc.?

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #774 on March 19, 2020, 12:38:13 pm by River Don »
Sounds logical - more testing on a much wider scale shows where the spread is and identifies who has it, regardless of symptoms.

We simply have to increase testing..

As for the advice to do supermarket shopping online, that’s nigh on f**king impossible now.  I’m tech savvy but it took ages to set up an account with Morrison’s (where we shop) and despite no delivery slots for weeks which is understandable, I can’t even register a payment method.!

How the hell are less tech savvy older people, who have to self isolate, going to follow the advice if the system can’t cope with the demand.

Perhaps the government should arrange for food parcels etc.?

Apparently the antichrist, sorry Dominic Cummings, has been trying to organise things with businesses like Uber and Deliveroo to set up a system of emergency deliveries. It sounds like it's a very big undertaking though.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #775 on March 19, 2020, 12:48:20 pm by River Don »
Apparently the government aren't ruling out locking down London at the weekend.

It feels like we are on the run in to real disruption now.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 12:50:35 pm by River Don »

IDM

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 19614
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #776 on March 19, 2020, 01:06:13 pm by IDM »
But at 12.10 today on the bbc ticker the government has said “zero prospect” of restrictions in and out of London..

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #777 on March 19, 2020, 01:30:16 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Schools closed down for an indefinite period from Friday. Got to do it really. Our total number of deaths is exactly tracking where Italy was two weeks ago.

Their rate of increase in deaths is just starting to slow down after 9 days of lock down. Hopefully ours will follow, but it's going to be bloody hard work.

Italy have today recorded their largest death rate....

Agreed. Bu the rate at which the trend is increasing day by day has been slowing over the past week. That's the first indication of getting on top of it.

2 weeks ago, their number of new deaths per day was doubling every 2 days. This past week, the trend has been doubling about every 6-7 days.

The number of new deaths will keep on increasing for another week or two. But the key thing is, how much it is increasing day on day. If it starts to stabilise at the same number of new deaths per day, it means that their measures have got the spread under control. For now, anyway, whilever the lockdown continues.

On this topic, there is some dreadful reporting by the BBC. Leading headline talking about Italy's number of new dead "soaring again" but not a word about the real story - that they appear to be getting the rise under control.

The BBC is supposed to "inform, educate and entertain".

Reporting like that does none of those things. It misleads by sensationalising. 

And they are at it again.

Deaths in Spain "soaring" according to BBC.

Ignoring the fact that last week the number of deaths was doubling every 1.5 days (!) and this week it has been doubling about every four days.

This is utterly irresponsible journalism. There should be a huge effort to inform and educate people about exponential growth and how you get it under control.

The danger is that, when we go into lockdown next week and the death numbers keep on rising people might assume it's not working, and kick off.

The evidence from several countries is that lockdown DOES work. But the death number keep on rising. The first sign of it working is the rate of increase of deaths per day starts to fall (or the time taken to double the total number of deaths starts to increase).

You do NOT broadcast that as a failure, if you are going to act responsibly. That is the road to success.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36596
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #778 on March 19, 2020, 01:35:13 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Lockdown of London IS coming. And I suspect I know the reason for the Govt denials.

Clearest sign it is coming? The Queen was supposed to be moving from Buckingham Palace to Windsor Castle next week, for the Easter break. She's just left this morning.

IDM

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 19614
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #779 on March 19, 2020, 01:40:00 pm by IDM »
I wouldn’t be surprised if there are more stringent measures for London soon.. just being the messenger..

 

TinyPortal © 2005-2012