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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860269 times)

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River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #780 on March 19, 2020, 01:58:02 pm by River Don »
Yorkshire still feels to be a little behind the rest of the country at the moment, though there was a small surge of cases in the Sheffield area yesterday.

Donny was still in 4 confirmed cases yesterday. Which in reality means only 4 cases last week.

It might mean that when harder restrictions come in, they might be a little more effective here.



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #781 on March 19, 2020, 02:07:16 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Interesting that Kensington and Chelsea has a confirmed infection rate more than 10 times higher than the rest of the country.

One theory is that a lot of them were skiing in Italy in Jan/Feb and picked it up.

The other one is that there are a lot of very selfish, very wealthy people paying for private tests and so more cases have been identified.

If it is the latter, it is a bloody disgrace. We have a shortage of testing capacity and ALL of it should be used to assist the most important cases. Not ease the worries of the rich.

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #782 on March 19, 2020, 02:24:41 pm by Metalmicky »

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #783 on March 19, 2020, 02:41:53 pm by Metalmicky »
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 02:53:09 pm by Metalmicky »

roversdude

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #784 on March 19, 2020, 02:55:15 pm by roversdude »
Rumours flying round that Prince Phillip has shook a 7 - believe it when I see it officially

nightporter

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #785 on March 19, 2020, 03:53:10 pm by nightporter »
My worries for London is repeat of the 2001 riots, only worse.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #786 on March 19, 2020, 04:03:49 pm by Copps is Magic »
Alot of fake news flying around on facebook. Someone on my timeline shared a post of an apparent cascade of military trucks travelling down a road  to put London on lockdown. Then someone pointed out the trucks were driving on the wrong side of the road! Not from the UK then, and a certianly nothing to do with covid-19.

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #787 on March 19, 2020, 04:05:14 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
My worries for London is repeat of the 2001 riots, only worse.
If this is still going come a heat wave, there will be riots, thought the difference from previous occurances is Johnson will likely pile in with army intervention.

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #788 on March 19, 2020, 04:06:36 pm by Metalmicky »
Anyone see Donald Trump's press conference.........beyond satire.

TRUMP: "The medics have been working extremely hard. Harder than anyone else. Except me."

TRUMP: "Dr so-and-so here. He's worked with Ebola, great company"

roversdude

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #789 on March 19, 2020, 04:08:37 pm by roversdude »
Alot of fake news flying around on facebook. Someone on my timeline shared a post of an apparent cascade of military trucks travelling down a road  to put London on lockdown. Then someone pointed out the trucks were driving on the wrong side of the road! Not from the UK then, and a certianly nothing to do with covid-19.

Saw a similar post making out it was on M25 - with a road sign for Worksop and non British vehicle

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #790 on March 19, 2020, 04:21:07 pm by Metalmicky »
Diane Abbott has called for the BBC to stop filming Casualty and Holby City so the staff can help out with the Coronavirus outbreak....

rtid88

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #791 on March 19, 2020, 04:25:21 pm by rtid88 »
Yorkshire still feels to be a little behind the rest of the country at the moment, though there was a small surge of cases in the Sheffield area yesterday.

Donny was still in 4 confirmed cases yesterday. Which in reality means only 4 cases last week.

It might mean that when harder restrictions come in, they might be a little more effective here.
2 of the 4 quoted ones for Doncaster are not actually Doncaster residents either so in reality it's only 2...
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 06:02:53 pm by rtid88 »

tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #792 on March 19, 2020, 06:09:47 pm by tyke1962 »
Johnson seems to be in a highly optimistic frame of mind at this evening's update .

12 weeks and we will be on the way to beating this thing he says but failed to tell anyone on how that could possibly be and just carry on as you were .

Coming home from work and listening to Radio 4  several people who are tasked with actually finding a solution to this virus didn't share any optimism at all .

A vaccination is 18 months away minimum and even if that is accurate rolling out the vaccine for the entire population of the world isn't exactly a walk in the park , add 6 more months to that before we are all protected .

Keeping your foot on the virus is fine but lifting it off to open the country up for business so to speak will see it return quickly .

There's absolutely no evidence to say you can't be infected again .

The herd immunity strategy if succesful will still take the best part of 18 months to work .

All this I heard in an half hour drive home from work this evening .

Johnson is remarkably optimistic with absolutely no evidence what so ever to be so .

Worrying , to say the least

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #793 on March 19, 2020, 06:13:05 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
I found his optimism bizarre aswell, certainly will not push for more stringent social distancing despite him saying it.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #794 on March 19, 2020, 06:32:39 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
There's bound to be strict lockdown coming very soon.

We are still following exactly the same numbers of deaths as Italy was two weeks ago. 10 days ago they had strict lockdown and they are getting a big decrease in the rate of increase of deaths. We HAVE to follow that now.

But as Tyke says, and as the Imperial College modelling shows, if you just release that lockdown after several weeks, it will take off again very quickly.


The Imperial modelling has suggested a sequence of lockdowns-release-lockdowns for months ahead, until a vaccine is ready.

This is going to need some very clever management, and to be fair, I think that's what Johnson was rambling on about. The key from the stuff I've been reading is massive testing so that we know who has had it, who has it and who hasn't had it. Then we can be smart about where and when we lock down and when and where we relax the lockdown temporarily.

But yes, his optimism is really not the right face to be showing at the moment. We need a blood, sweat, toil and tears Churchill message. This is going to be REALLY hard work and for a long time.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #795 on March 19, 2020, 06:34:53 pm by IDM »
It’s all about the testing.. I don’t know why this hasn’t been escalate before...

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #796 on March 19, 2020, 06:42:39 pm by wilts rover »
Alot of fake news flying around on facebook. Someone on my timeline shared a post of an apparent cascade of military trucks travelling down a road  to put London on lockdown. Then someone pointed out the trucks were driving on the wrong side of the road! Not from the UK then, and a certianly nothing to do with covid-19.

There are convoys of military trucks driving up and down roads in the UK all the time - where I live you worry when you don't see military convoys. Although I was a bit concerned the other week when I saw a tank transporter convoy going past my house and thought you must be lost. You are going to struggle to turn that lot round if you go down there...

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #797 on March 19, 2020, 06:47:42 pm by wilts rover »
Sorry Billy no we are not, we are running at a slightly higher mortality rate than Italy was at the same stage.

Italy of course has twice the number of ICU beds, its very worrying.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1239975778395115520

DonnyOsmond

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #798 on March 19, 2020, 06:48:24 pm by DonnyOsmond »
Barnier tests positive for CV.

Red passports for a few years yet?  :facepalm:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-eus-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11960128

Surely only an idiot would want us to tank our economy more with Brexit at a time like this?

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #799 on March 19, 2020, 06:57:16 pm by wilts rover »

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #800 on March 19, 2020, 07:17:27 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
There's absolutely no evidence to say you can't be infected again .

There's not a lot of evidence about much to do with this virus as things stand, but flagging that point out is a tad hysterical (not saying you Tyke, but where you're getting it from). Adding "absolutely" to that is crazy.

Immunity to viruses and resistance to their mutations is normal. It would be very out of the ordinary for it not to be the case with this one.

idler

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #801 on March 19, 2020, 07:59:42 pm by idler »
I was all ing to a friend in her 70s who is self isolating on the advice of her grandson who is a consultant. His exact words were over 60s need to self-isolate because if they go to hospital they will be the ones that miss out on ventilators because the ventilators that they have will be used on the younger fitter patients that have a better chance of surviving and also recover quicker.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #802 on March 19, 2020, 08:24:23 pm by Copps is Magic »
I realise everyone knows this by now, but it appears this virus is way more pronounced with age than even we first thought a few weeks ago. The morality rate for over 85s appears to be terrible, with 65-84 years olds its also bad, around 55 or younger it drops off the cliff into just being somewhere like a normal flu.

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #803 on March 19, 2020, 08:42:09 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
I realise everyone knows this by now, but it appears this virus is way more pronounced with age than even we first thought a few weeks ago. The morality rate for over 85s appears to be terrible, with 65-84 years olds its also bad, around 55 or younger it drops off the cliff into just being somewhere like a normal flu.

Maybe, but between lack of testing and false positive test results we have little idea of the number of cases, so we can't know the mortality rate.

I don't think we're seeing a higher proportion of older people die than with flu?

mushRTID

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #804 on March 19, 2020, 08:46:09 pm by mushRTID »
One of my mates is convinced he had it over Christmas and it was here before we thought.

Anyone else have these suspicions?

tommy toes

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #805 on March 19, 2020, 08:52:46 pm by tommy toes »
Matt Hancock's on QT as usual stating the bleedin obvious in his statesman-like sincere way.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #806 on March 19, 2020, 09:18:59 pm by albie »
The editor of the Lancet wrote an opinion piece in the Guardian;
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/18/coronavirus-uk-expert-advice-wrong

Worth looking at the Newsnight vid from March 13, with Graham Medley, on the herd immunity strategy.
In the absence of a vaccine, this beggars belief.

Having failed to find any bread on the empty store shelves, and heard the hopeless Johnson giving his optimistic "12 weeks" assessment, I have realised "herd stupidity" has become endemic,and is the new normal

Does anyone have faith in the ability of Johnson, Hancock, Gove and Raab?
Clearly the panic buyers are not on board with the message.

tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #807 on March 19, 2020, 09:30:11 pm by tyke1962 »
Whilst the government acted reasonably in protecting capital the other day which whilst needed is the tory way , rather less has been forthcoming on those who haven't any capital to lose .

The renters  equated to low pay  , ZHC's , those laid off unpaid by their companies and obviously the people who have the virus or those in their household who have it too , those who are down to one wage so their partners can look after their school children comes in to this category .

Whilst we aren't at the point of the causes of the French Revolution just yet , something before early next week would be rather a good idea because eating cake doesn't tend to turn out well in times such as these .

I'd give that money tree another shake chancellor if I was you and it better be enough to feed the family , pay the bills and keep a roof over the head whilst not able to work for the immediate future .







BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #808 on March 19, 2020, 09:36:56 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Wilts.

Choosing to plot the graphs with a common datum of the date on which they hit five deaths entirely arbitrary. In fact, it's actually a relatively poor way of comparing. Because in the early stages, the deaths occur at relatively random times because there were so few. And I know that comes from Johns Hopkins Uni, but that doesn't change the argument. Even leading universities don't always make flawless calls.

If you shift our trend back 2 weeks it matches Italy astonishingly closely as the numbers get into the high 10s and more

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #809 on March 19, 2020, 09:40:16 pm by wilts rover »
Don't blame me, blame the economics editor of Sky News.

 

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