Congratualtions Keir Starmer

[tyke1962]

The polls are not too reliable though are they.

No they aren't but to lose a 26% lead in less than 12 months is pretty unprecedented .

It's pretty clear Johnson has lost an healthy lead even factoring in the flaws in the opinion polls .

The flaws could also reveal that Labour have a more significant lead too let's not forget .

When a government is almost entirely on the defensive it tends not to help them too much when election time comes around and with what's coming down the road its high likely the defensive position isn't going to change .

He's playing a canny game is Starmer and a decent manifesto and campaign should see him home and dry in 2024 .

He ain't the Tories so it's about as good as you can realistically aspire to .

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not sure what you mean Hound.

They were correct to within a fraction of a percent here last December.

And I assume you don't think a 32% move in 6 months isn't a polling error?

[BillyStubbsTears]

And another one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1325167976073490432

The polling average had been stuck since June on Con 40-42, Lab 37-39.

Something has changed in the last month or so, and it seems to be bedding in.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Actually, correct that. I'm wrong. According to this graph from Wiki, there's been a long term,slow increase in Lab support and decrease in Con support throughout the late summer and autumn.

[SydneyRover]

We may be seeing a few more U-turns then?

[Ldr]

Shows just how much of a mistake corbyn was

[Donnywolf]

Not sure what you mean Hound.

They were correct to within a fraction of a percent here last December.

And I assume you don't think a 32% move in 6 months isn't a polling error?

I just watched the Clock tick to 10 and "Bong" exit polls show Tories will have a large majority

I think it had the range that included 80 - and I supped mi Tes up and went to bed "gutted"

[BillyStubbsTears]

The average of the last 10 GB-wide polls before the Dec 2019 election were.
Con 43.4
Lab 33.6
LD 11.7
SNP 3.9
Green 2.8
BP 3.1

The actual GB results were.:

Con 44.7
Lab 33.0
LD 11.8
SNP 4.0
Green 2.8
BP 2.1

That is astonishing accuracy. The only minor glitch was they slightly underestimated how many votes Johnson pulled back off Farage.

[bpoolrover]

Actually, correct that. I'm wrong. According to this graph from Wiki, there's been a long term,slow increase in Lab support and decrease in Con support throughout the late summer and autumn.

more lockdowns more restrictions are probably why, I think you will only get a true picture once the pandemic has reduced and things are back to some sort of normal

[bpoolrover]

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/06/voting-intention-con-35-lab-40-4-5-nov Even the brexit party has gained 2 points, which if was a election I doubt would happen

[Bentley Bullet]

It's obvious that the polls, like in the USA, are reflecting the present pandemic situation. That's why Trump lost in the USA. Had news of a vaccine come last week instead of this Trump most probably would have won.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If it was due to "the pandemic situation" then you'd expect governing parties around the world to be hit hard in the polls.

But they aren't.

In Germany, Merkel's CDU party was 22% ahead of the next highest party in the polls in April. Currently it is 21% ahead.

In Denmark, the ruling Social Democrats were 13% ahead of the next party in April. Today they are 11% ahead.

In New Zealand, Jacinda Ahern's party was 25-26% ahead in the polls in April. They polled 24.4% higher than the 2nd placed party in their General Election three weeks back.

So it's clearly NOT a simple as ruling parties' support being hit hard by the pandemic. It appears that in countries where the ruling party has handled the pandemic well, their support has barely been scratched.

[Bentley Bullet]

Let's hope I'm wrong then, just for your sake.

[Metalmicky]

It's fortunate that we have an election coming soon - the country can right itself!! .................. oh wait

[wilts rover]

It's obvious that the polls, like in the USA, are reflecting the present pandemic situation. That's why Trump lost in the USA. Had news of a vaccine come last week instead of this Trump most probably would have won.

I agree. And I think New Zealand is the best example. They coped well with the pandemic and won a landslide. Countries that coped badly such as the US - well. France's elections next year should be interesting.

I don't think that is the full story of Johnson's recent loss of support though. The refusal to support Marcus Rashford's campaign and the refusal to support workers in the north - and then u-turning on those positions. People are beginning to see that they are the same old nasty party, just led by a bloke who rather than pretending to play the clown - really is one.

And then there is the EU Brexit deal. Around 12-15% of Johnson's support are the former UKIP/Brexit Party supporters. How many of these will stick with him if he agrees a deal? And how many of the remaining Tories will stick with him if he doesn't?

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's fortunate that we have an election coming soon - the country can right itself!! .................. oh wait

Point is that, sometimes in politics, a Government gets such a reputation for incompetence that it sticks, and there's nothing it can do to pull itself out of the mire.

It happened with Major's Govt after Black Wednesday. It happened with Brown's Govt after the GFC. Both those Govts lost control years ahead of an election, and never pulled it round. Johnson's Govt has all the jigsaw pieces lined up to be another one of those cases.

Ruling party in power for ages and running out of new ideas
Massive external shock that drapes the Govt with the sense of not being in control.
A PM who had seemed like a breath of fresh air to many people not long before, looking like they are being knocked from pillar to post.
A new Opposition leader making rapid advances in the polls, and looking sharp and prime ministerial by comparison.

Not saying that Johnson's Govt can't recover of course. But the headwinds are massively against them. And that is before the huge self-inflicted wound of the economic cost of Brexit finally becomes clear to people.

[selby]

  Now becomes the invisible man in charge of a fast becoming  invisible political party

[BillyStubbsTears]

That party that is currently polling at 40%?

That leader that currently has a +10% satisfaction rating in the polls?

The state of the shite that TalkRadio pumps into your head Selby...

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Let's see how it changes in 42 months..... It's a long slog and labour need policies first then we can judge them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not saying anything about 42 months time BFYP. I'm just foolishly replying to Selby's drivel.

[selby]

 Aye Billy, that much a centre of discussion even you haven't posted anything about him since November 10th, thought I would just remind you about your flag carrier and wake you up you must go to sleep dreaming of him on a white charger.
  The Charisma of a Sloth.

[Donnywolf]

I would rather be defended in Court by someone with the charisma of a sloth than a proven liar with the persona of a buffoon & with the dress sense of Worzel Gummage

Ask Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe - who I am sure would agree with me too

[i_ateallthepies]

Selby won't give a shyte about her, John, she's 'a foreigner'.

[selby]

  How would I know that? with a surname like that she is just as likely to live in Leyton or Peckham. Are you 100% certain she is not a spy? if she was she must have known the risks.
 Like Anne Sacoolas is to the USA she is important to Iran, a pawn just like the Lockerbie bomber was to us until he had served his purpose.
  Lesson to be learned you will be told the side of the story the relevant governments want you to know, which one you believe is probably down to the country you are born in and whose side you are on and you can do very little about it.
  Do I lay awake at night thinking about her no, Whether Fej can get a goal at Hull is of much more interest to me.

[Axholme Lion]

  How would I know that? with a surname like that she is just as likely to live in Leyton or Peckham. Are you 100% certain she is not a spy? if she was she must have known the risks.
 Like Anne Sacoolas is to the USA she is important to Iran, a pawn just like the Lockerbie bomber was to us until he had served his purpose.
  Lesson to be learned you will be told the side of the story the relevant governments want you to know, which one you believe is probably down to the country you are born in and whose side you are on and you can do very little about it.
  Do I lay awake at night thinking about her no, Whether Fej can get a goal at Hull is of much more interest to me.

All we are fed is West= Good, Iran=Bad. The truth is probably very complex and somewhere between the two.

[selby]

  Must be a record, so well done Kier having a vote of no confidence in him as a leader by the Camberwell Green branch of the Labour Party.
   Watch yer back Stabber.

[drfcdrfc]

  Must be a record, so well done Kier having a vote of no confidence in him as a leader by the Camberwell Green branch of the Labour Party.
   Watch yer back Stabber.

Your a very selective sad old Kitson aren't you? If my retirement looks like yours, I want putting down now.

[wilts rover]

  Must be a record, so well done Kier having a vote of no confidence in him as a leader by the Camberwell Green branch of the Labour Party.
   Watch yer back Stabber.

Doesn't worry about British nationals held illegally in jail by foreign governments - but follows the minor details of obscure Labour Party branches - strange priorities don't you think?

[Glyn_Wigley]

  Must be a record, so well done Kier having a vote of no confidence in him as a leader by the Camberwell Green branch of the Labour Party.
   Watch yer back Stabber.

Doesn't worry about British nationals held illegally in jail by foreign governments - but follows the minor details of obscure Labour Party branches - strange priorities don't you think?

It's not about his priorities, it's the whiff of desperation that I can smell in his post.

[selby]

Ah Glyn forgot about you, what do you think to the taxes the Dutch bicycle spares firm have to pay at source?