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Author Topic: Schools Fully Open 8th March  (Read 1748 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #60 on February 23, 2021, 09:30:34 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Hound.

That link is the minutes from a SAGE meeting. Are you not reading them because you think they are biased?



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drfchound

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #61 on February 23, 2021, 09:33:37 pm by drfchound »
Hound.

That link is the minutes from a SAGE meeting. Are you not reading them because you think they are biased?




You obviously didnt read all of what i said BST, about why i rarely read links (from some posters) on the political threads.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #62 on February 23, 2021, 09:38:42 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Hound.

That link is the minutes from a SAGE meeting. Are you not reading them because you think they are biased?

So are you saying Chris Whitty is a liar?

Filo

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #63 on February 23, 2021, 09:42:46 pm by Filo »
Hound.

That link is the minutes from a SAGE meeting. Are you not reading them because you think they are biased?

So are you saying Chris Whitty is a liar?


Sage is a collective of experts, those minutes are the opinion of those experts, Whitty is one of those experts but his opinion goes against the body of experts, he’s also the man brought in to pass the Govt message, right or wrong

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #64 on February 23, 2021, 09:51:58 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Hound. I read this.

"Albie, i seldomly read links on this thread.
Whenever i have done, invariably they are of a very biased nature."

In response to Albie pointing you to a link to SAGE minutes.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #65 on February 23, 2021, 09:54:13 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Hound.

That link is the minutes from a SAGE meeting. Are you not reading them because you think they are biased?

So are you saying Chris Whitty is a liar?


Sage is a collective of experts, those minutes are the opinion of those experts, Whitty is one of those experts but his opinion goes against the body of experts, he’s also the man brought in to pass the Govt message, right or wrong
SAGE is chaired by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance and co-chaired by the Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty. BOTH were in attendance at yesterday's bulletin from Downing Street and BOTH vehemently agreed with the proposed plan of exiting lockdown.

Media reports saying there were conflicting opinions regarding schools returning on March 8th were strenuously denied by Chris Whitty.

So, it is either the media lying or Chris Whitty. Personally, without a shadow of a doubt, I suspect it's the media that is lying and those lies have been jumped on by people with an anti-government agenda.

SydneyRover

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #66 on February 23, 2021, 10:00:24 pm by SydneyRover »
BB,

Both Whitty and Vallance are bound by collective responsibility, so the way in which their individual opinions are shown in the SAGE meetings is not always the same as the public face.
That is just a given in these situations.

This is the advice TO SAGE;
The discussion in SAGE modelled different scenarios in relation to relaxing lockdown;
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1363888315997556740

Here are the recommendations in the SAGE minutes;
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963366/S1082_SAGE__79_Minutes.pdf

Points 32 and 33 cut to the chase.

To answer Hound, no they are not following the SAGE consensus, they are cherrypicking the science.
It helps if you actually read the links before posting.




Albie, i seldomly read links on this thread.
Whenever i have done, invariably they are of a very biased nature.

Maybe this will help get your head around the subject of bias hound, if you care to read it that is and it may surprise you.

“The biases the media has are much bigger than conservative or liberal.
They're about getting ratings, about making money, about doing stories that
are easy to cover and keeping us in an uproar.”


https://www.fightingfake.org.uk/media-bias

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #67 on February 23, 2021, 10:03:24 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Back to the point I made last night.

The SAGE minutes say that the consensus in SAGE is that re-opening schools will add 0.1-0.5 to the R number. And the real worry at the moment is that the data over the last 10 days seems to be saying that R is back up to something very close to 1.

If both those things are correct, then reopening schools will lead directly to an exponential rise in cases, and we will be back in lockdown by May.

At the very least, given the f**k up that we made in December, it would be sensible to get a clearer picture of what R is right now before taking such a big step.

If the CSA and CMO have briefed Johnson with that 0.1-0.5 figure from SAGE and not told him that means re-opening schools is a very big gamble, they are not doing their jobs. After that, the PM decides policy and, whilst still in post, it is not the job of advisers to publicly criticise. You note that neither of them were effusive in their support for the policy last night. Whitty said it was "a risk and an accepted risk" (note the very careful use of language).

drfchound

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #68 on February 23, 2021, 10:16:48 pm by drfchound »
Hound. I read this.

"Albie, i seldomly read links on this thread.
Whenever i have done, invariably they are of a very biased nature."

In response to Albie pointing you to a link to SAGE minutes.






BST.
You asked me if I wasn’t reading the link because they were biased.
I had said that I don’t often read links on the political threads because, very often, when I do they are of a biased nature.
I thought that would make it bleeding obvious why I hadn’t read the link.

albie

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #69 on February 24, 2021, 12:46:35 am by albie »
Albie, I'll tell you what. You believe what you want to believe and I'll believe what I want to believe. I'm quite happy looking at the positives and you're quite happy looking at the negatives. I'm looking ahead to a good future, you're looking ahead to a bleak one.



Well, this thread has taken a weird turn since I was on here.
Anyway, I reckon BB has hit the nail on the head, although I'm not sure he meant to.

It is about belief for some.
Evidence only counts if it backs up your belief, if it poses a question, then ignore it.

All a bit Donald Trump for me!

I don't really see the positive v negative thing though.
For me, it is about weighing the evidence, then thinking what is likely to happen...probable rather than possible, if you like.

Each to their own, I guess.

belton rover

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #70 on February 24, 2021, 07:30:57 am by belton rover »
Many, many links on here are not evidence at all. They are opinions (often extreme and very biased) dressed up as evidence for the sole purpose of backing up the poster’s own opinion in a feeble attempt to add some ‘evidential’ proof.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2021, 07:36:13 am by belton rover »

Filo

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #71 on February 24, 2021, 07:53:45 am by Filo »
Many, many links on here are not evidence at all. They are opinions (often extreme and very biased) dressed up as evidence for the sole purpose of backing up the poster’s own opinion in a feeble attempt to add some ‘evidential’ proof.

Would you say the minutes of the Sage meeting is reliable evidence or not?

I would say a posters refusal to read a link to any evidence in case it goes against the said posters argument, invalidates their argument

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #72 on February 24, 2021, 08:06:07 am by Bentley Bullet »
Albie, I'll tell you what. You believe what you want to believe and I'll believe what I want to believe. I'm quite happy looking at the positives and you're quite happy looking at the negatives. I'm looking ahead to a good future, you're looking ahead to a bleak one.



Well, this thread has taken a weird turn since I was on here.
Anyway, I reckon BB has hit the nail on the head, although I'm not sure he meant to.

It is about belief for some.
Evidence only counts if it backs up your belief, if it poses a question, then ignore it.

All a bit Donald Trump for me!

I don't really see the positive v negative thing though.
For me, it is about weighing the evidence, then thinking what is likely to happen...probable rather than possible, if you like.

Each to their own, I guess.

So are you saying Chris Whitty is a liar?


belton rover

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #73 on February 24, 2021, 08:10:46 am by belton rover »
Filo. Mine was a general comment, not aimed at one particular argument. Also, I said many, not all.

Yes I do consider minutes from a SAGE meeting reliable evidence.
No I don’t think a poster’s refusal to read a link automatically invalidates their argument (or, most importantly, their opinion).

Filo

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #74 on February 24, 2021, 08:37:25 am by Filo »
Filo. Mine was a general comment, not aimed at one particular argument. Also, I said many, not all.

Yes I do consider minutes from a SAGE meeting reliable evidence.
No I don’t think a poster’s refusal to read a link automatically invalidates their argument (or, most importantly, their opinion).

Thank you for your reply, we appear to be on the same page regarding the minutes of Sage

On another point that BB keeps mentioning regarding Chris Whitty (and I know he was answering another poster) I don’t think he’s lying at all, how can you lie about an unknown outcome, however, Whitty shouldn’t really  be expressing is own personal opinion contradicting the minutes of the Sage meeting, as Albie pointed out points 32 and 33, in a Govt propaganda broadcast, he’s entitled to an Opinion of course, but not at the expense of the collective group of experts that the Govt always tells us they are following

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #75 on February 24, 2021, 08:52:33 am by Bentley Bullet »
Filo. Where does Chris Whitty contradict the minutes of the sage meeting?

Filo

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #76 on February 24, 2021, 09:02:06 am by Filo »
Filo. Where does Chris Whitty contradict the minutes of the sage meeting?

Already mentioned in the previous post

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #77 on February 24, 2021, 09:05:24 am by Bentley Bullet »
Filo. Where does he express an opinion that is at the expense of the collective group of experts?

Filo

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #78 on February 24, 2021, 09:25:25 am by Filo »
Filo. Where does he express an opinion that is at the expense of the collective group of experts?



Unlike BST I can’t be arsed with you and your little clique’s petty games of turning serious debates into childish games, crack on kid, get someone else to play

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #79 on February 24, 2021, 09:38:32 am by Bentley Bullet »
You see, the thing is, Chris Whitty didn't lie. He didn't express an opinion that opposed the SAGE meetings conclusions.

Albie cherry-picked points 32 & 33 of the minutes from the sage meeting to try and suggest that Whitty did. He didn't cherry-pick point 34 (for instance) which is exactly the action that the government is taking.

belton rover

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #80 on February 24, 2021, 09:46:56 am by belton rover »
And that is another problem with links to evidence being seen as ultimate proof - post a link and ‘cherry pick’ facts from it to suit agenda.
Then say ‘the facts can’t be denied’, or something similar.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #81 on February 24, 2021, 09:53:58 am by Bentley Bullet »
It's like only giving half a story to push your agenda. It's like the Doncaster Free Press printing 'Rovers score THREE goals against Hull', and the Hull Daily Mail printing 'Hull score THREE goals against Doncaster Rovers'!

Both are true but tell only half the story.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #82 on February 24, 2021, 10:34:59 am by Bentley Bullet »
That SAGE meeting was also from about three weeks ago and there have been more encouraging statistics in favour of reducing restrictions since then.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #83 on February 24, 2021, 11:09:51 am by BillyStubbsTears »
BB. Odd of you to refer to paragraph 34 of those minutes (which is a general and obvious statement of principle) and refer to that as being "exactly the action the Govt is taking" while not mentioning paragraph 35.

I assume you didn't read paragraph 35, because if you DID and didn't mention it, that would be cherry-picking. So I'll post 34 and 35 here for you.

Seems to me the key take home is that SAGE warned that the very action that the Govt announced as Plan A on Monday could lead to yet another disaster.

34. As there are many uncertainties, including on what the effect of specific policies is on
transmission, changes to measures are best made based on epidemiological data
rather than based on predetermined dates. SAGE advises an “adaptive
 management” approach, responding to data, for example setting levels of infection or
hospitalisation that would need to be reached before making changes. This makes it
more likely that the epidemic can be kept under control.
35. Modelling indicates that relaxation of measures over six or nine months results in
much smaller subsequent epidemic waves than relaxing measures over three
months. Relaxation of a significant number of restrictions over three months starting
from the beginning of April could lead to hospital occupancy higher than the January
 peak whereas relaxation over nine months would result in a much smaller peak
 (medium confidence).

albie

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #84 on February 24, 2021, 12:22:19 pm by albie »
Some very odd shapeshifting going on here.

No-one is saying Chris Whitty is lying. Equally he did not present the full range of opinion in SAGE in the briefing.
Time alone would not allow for that.

Anyone who has had to summarise to a committee, or presented evidence to an Inquiry (I have, as an expert witness), knows that there are limits to understanding in relation to the volume of technical detail.

The first doc (Sam Coates feed) is from Feb 7 is grim reading.
 “Four scenarios have been modelled that differ in the speed of easing restrictions from current levels to minimal measures. All four scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths”. That’s in addition to the 130,000 or so deaths we already have.

There is more. “The scale and timing of these resurgences are critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions, including real world vaccine effectiveness against severe disease and infection … Given this uncertainty, it would be inadvisable to tie changes in policy to dates instead of data”.

 “Unless vaccine efficacy is significantly better than assumed here, it is highly likely that hospital occupancy would be higher than that seen in January 2021, if all restrictions are lifted by the start of May”.

Then a reminder: “As restrictions are relaxed virus transmission will increase. The more slowly restrictions are relaxed, the greater the number of hospitalisations and deaths prevented by vaccination and hence it would be less likely that restrictions would need to be reimposed later to avoid hospitals being put under extreme pressure”.

Now it is possible that vaccination will reduce transmission, as well as preventing anything more than mild symptoms in the vast majority of the population. The question is whether it is probable, and what degree of certainty you can give to that.

Ch5 News did a reasonable cover here;
https://twitter.com/5_News/status/1363923942172467201
This might be more use for people who don't like reading docs.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #85 on February 24, 2021, 01:12:03 pm by Bentley Bullet »
BST.
I referred to paragraph 34 because it provided enough evidence on its own that Albie was cherry-picking by only using the previous two paragraphs.

Regarding paragraph 35, I could have included that had it been required to do so in order to prove even further that Albie was cherry-picking paragraphs to suit his agenda. Paragraph 34 was evidence enough.

Paragraph 35 explains the obvious even to non-experts like me. Of course the longer we remain in lock-down the lesser the casualties will be of COVID. The government, along with Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick valance are fully aware of what could happen and if the worst scenario does happen they can start restrictions again. The target dates they have given are simply guides that they hope to get things back to normal but they rely entirely on future data. An advantage of starting sooner rather than later is that it will hopefully benefit children's education, General public health, mental health, economy, loss of businesses and loss of jobs.

Since that SAGE meeting of which the minutes produced 20 days ago, data from the effect of the vaccine has been unbelievable, and this must have been a consideration of Whitty and Vallance when they advised that schools going back on March 8th was the right decision.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #86 on February 24, 2021, 01:22:48 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
BB.

I didn't think I'd need to spell this out, but the REALLY important thing about paragraph 35 is that it says that modelling suggests that opening up from lockdown over three months from April may lead to a more severe hospital crisis than occurred in January.

It is inconceivable that Whitty and Vallance wouldn't have communicated that information to Johnson. And Johnson then announces that Plan A is to open up from lockdown in 3.5 months from early March.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #87 on February 24, 2021, 01:23:42 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Of course Whitty and Valance aren't responsible for the economy and other political aspects Johnson is.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #88 on February 24, 2021, 01:26:31 pm by Bentley Bullet »
 
BB.

I didn't think I'd need to spell this out, but the REALLY important thing about paragraph 35 is that it says that modelling suggests that opening up from lockdown over three months from April may lead to a more severe hospital crisis than occurred in January.

It is inconceivable that Whitty and Vallance wouldn't have communicated that information to Johnson. And Johnson then announces that Plan A is to open up from lockdown in 3.5 months from early March.

BST, you didn't read my post, did you?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Schools Fully Open 8th March
« Reply #89 on February 24, 2021, 03:02:52 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Yes I read it BB and I was writing before dashing off to a meeting.

You make the common fundamental error that there is a balance to be struck between controlling the virus and opening the economy. There isn't. There never has been. You control the virus or you have to go back into lockdown, damaging the economy.

The vaccine news is great but doesn't fundamentally change the narrative from those SAGE minutes. Currently, about 50million people in the country have yet to be vaccinated. If R goes back above 1 (and SAGE says it is likely to with schools going back) then the chances of us following the 3 month unlocking timetable are small. But here's the problem. Now that Johnson has set that aspiration, it will be bloody hard to backpedal from it if the data says we should. Evidence for that? It was clear from early December that we needed a hard lockdown but Johnson was wedded to a freer Xmas and delayed lockdown until the New Year. That has currently killed 30,000 people and made this unlocking much, much longer and harder than it needed to be. This feels very much like the same mistake being set up again.

 

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