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Author Topic: Is Another lockdown coming ?  (Read 6247 times)

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Pancho Regan

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #30 on July 15, 2021, 12:31:47 pm by Pancho Regan »
Did we really have to have a thread like this in the footy section of the forum?



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #31 on July 15, 2021, 12:40:22 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Problem is Glyn, the number of infected people requiring hospital admission hasn't actually fallen that much. Pre-vaccination rollout, there was a very steady rate - for every 1000 new positive tests, 70 people ended up in hospital. Now for every 1000 new tests, about 30 people are ending up in hospital.

Since the new positive test numbers are already well up above 30,000 a day, it's pretty well baked in that new hospital admissions will hit 1000 per day in the next week or so. What matters then is how much the spread of new cases continues to increase. Personally I'm baffled at the official line being to expect a peak between 1000-2000 hospitalisations per day, when we have been told to expect new cases per day to hit at least 100,000. Unless there is something dramatic happens very soon to break the link between new cases and new hospital admissions, 100k case per day maps across to something approaching 3000 hospital admissions per day. Which we only exceeded briefly at the height of the first and second waves.

mugnapper

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #32 on July 15, 2021, 12:50:13 pm by mugnapper »
Problem is Glyn, the number of infected people requiring hospital admission hasn't actually fallen that much. Pre-vaccination rollout, there was a very steady rate - for every 1000 new positive tests, 70 people ended up in hospital. Now for every 1000 new tests, about 30 people are ending up in hospital.

Since the new positive test numbers are already well up above 30,000 a day, it's pretty well baked in that new hospital admissions will hit 1000 per day in the next week or so. What matters then is how much the spread of new cases continues to increase. Personally I'm baffled at the official line being to expect a peak between 1000-2000 hospitalisations per day, when we have been told to expect new cases per day to hit at least 100,000. Unless there is something dramatic happens very soon to break the link between new cases and new hospital admissions, 100k case per day maps across to something approaching 3000 hospital admissions per day. Which we only exceeded briefly at the height of the first and second waves.

BST - I think the logic is that the vast majority of new cases are younger people who are much less likely to go on to need Intensive care than us Oldies. (I'm assuming you are an Oldie lol).

Nudga

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #33 on July 15, 2021, 12:54:03 pm by Nudga »
Someone I know won’t have the jab “because Covid doesn’t exist, it’s all a massive fraud “ which is strange because two of his cricket club mates have got it and fixtures have had to be cancelled because of it.

The sooner he cops a dose of it, the better. He might learn something.

f**kin idiot!!

A customer of mine had his 1st jab 13 weeks ago and he suffered pericarditis and a heart attack.
38 years old and he's f**ked. A lady I know has got blood clots in three of her fingers.
And another lady who I'll be doing a job for in 3 weeks had short term paralysis from the waist down.

This is why a lot of people, including myself are hesitant.

f**king hell Nudga, you are a magnet for these problems. No-one else I know has ever known anyone who had these life-changing reactions to the virus, but you have a list as long as your arm. You must be due a change of luck sometime soon.

So are you calling me a liar?

Where is your outrage at Wigleys comment?

DonnyBazR0ver

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #34 on July 15, 2021, 01:13:40 pm by DonnyBazR0ver »
A friend of mine works at Chesterfield Royal and whilst admissions are increasing, she says there's more younger people being kept in for precautionary reasons because they have capacity. She says there's more turnover of patients in this wave.

That's not saying some people are getting really ill but I guess we have to be careful with the statistics.

The guy from the Zoe app says the data he gets which is ahead of the PHE stats suggests the infections may now we plateauing, although there are of course some regional variations.

Cautious optimism seems to be the watchword.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #35 on July 15, 2021, 01:15:48 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I'm calling you a statistical outlier Nudga.

As for Glyn's comments, basically, anyone who is not immune is going to catch a dose over the next few weeks. He's actually well advised to catch it sooner rather than later - see next post.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #36 on July 15, 2021, 01:20:37 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
DBR/Glyn (and Nudga if you are still reading)

The graph below is the scary one for me. It shows that there has been a constant link between hospitalisations and deaths right the way through this epidemic. Including in the current wave, after vaccinations.

But here's the scary thing. To make those two sets of data lay on top of each other, I've not been consistent with the vertical axes. The right hand one (deaths) increases by a lot more than the left hand one (hospital cases). (By which I mean there are 9 doublings on the right hand axis and only 6 doublings on the left hand one.)

What this is saying is that right through the epidemic, before vaccinations or not, if you were admitted to hospital with COVID at a low point in the outbreak, you had a 1-in-16 chance of dying. Whereas if you went in at the very height of the epidemic, you had a 1-in-3 or 4 chance of dying. And there is no evidence yet that the vaccinations have had ANY effect on those relationships. Basically, what seems to be happening is that when the hospitals get overloaded, the quality of care they can give falls off a cliff. And we are running a serious risk of overloading them once again.


« Last Edit: July 15, 2021, 01:52:43 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #37 on July 15, 2021, 01:56:16 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Just to add, there, of course current hospital cases and deaths are still very low compared to the previous two waves. But the point is they are growing very rapidly, and following pretty much exactly the same relationship as the previous two waves. If something doesn't change, and soon, we are back to the same number of hospital cases and deaths that we saw at the two previous peaks by late summer/early autumn.

For the record, the SAGE modellers are saying that they expect this wave to start tailing off before then. But they freely admit that that is based on a lot of assumptions about how close we are to Herd Immunity. I sincerely hope they are right.

Glyn_Wigley

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #38 on July 15, 2021, 02:57:53 pm by Glyn_Wigley »
Someone I know won’t have the jab “because Covid doesn’t exist, it’s all a massive fraud “ which is strange because two of his cricket club mates have got it and fixtures have had to be cancelled because of it.

The sooner he cops a dose of it, the better. He might learn something.

f**kin idiot!!

A customer of mine had his 1st jab 13 weeks ago and he suffered pericarditis and a heart attack.
38 years old and he's f**ked. A lady I know has got blood clots in three of her fingers.
And another lady who I'll be doing a job for in 3 weeks had short term paralysis from the waist down.

This is why a lot of people, including myself are hesitant.

f**king hell Nudga, you are a magnet for these problems. No-one else I know has ever known anyone who had these life-changing reactions to the virus, but you have a list as long as your arm. You must be due a change of luck sometime soon.

So are you calling me a liar?

Where is your outrage at Wigleys comment?

As I've already said, I wasn't commenting on anyone refusing vaccinations or having a possible reaction to vaccination like all your anecdotes, I was commenting on someone who refuses to believe in Covid and needs to be shown it's very real. So read what I actually replied to and then you can stick your faux outrage somewhere where it's appropriate.

Nudga

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #39 on July 15, 2021, 03:54:32 pm by Nudga »
Haha faux outrage. Plenty of that around here.

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #40 on July 15, 2021, 04:56:07 pm by Bentley Bullet »
It's quite pleasant on here when I'm not involved!

 :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #41 on July 15, 2021, 06:14:31 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
A friend of mine works at Chesterfield Royal and whilst admissions are increasing, she says there's more younger people being kept in for precautionary reasons because they have capacity. She says there's more turnover of patients in this wave.

That's not saying some people are getting really ill but I guess we have to be careful with the statistics.

The guy from the Zoe app says the data he gets which is ahead of the PHE stats suggests the infections may now we plateauing, although there are of course some regional variations.

Cautious optimism seems to be the watchword.

I hadn't seen that comment from Tim Spector but it's great news if true. There's slight hints of a reduction in the rate of increase of new infections from the official PHE data. But of course we are about to give transmission a massive boost next Monday.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #42 on July 15, 2021, 07:31:04 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
A friend of mine works at Chesterfield Royal and whilst admissions are increasing, she says there's more younger people being kept in for precautionary reasons because they have capacity. She says there's more turnover of patients in this wave.

That's not saying some people are getting really ill but I guess we have to be careful with the statistics.

The guy from the Zoe app says the data he gets which is ahead of the PHE stats suggests the infections may now we plateauing, although there are of course some regional variations.

Cautious optimism seems to be the watchword.

I hadn't seen that comment from Tim Spector but it's great news if true. There's slight hints of a reduction in the rate of increase of new infections from the official PHE data. But of course we are about to give transmission a massive boost next Monday.

At the same time as reducing it with schools shut. I haven't seen the data but certainly here schools are full of it right now and that is not surprising given there is as yet still no vaccine for kids.

dickos1

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #43 on July 15, 2021, 07:32:34 pm by dickos1 »
But there’s 60 million or so been vaccinated,
If you were worried about risk rates like this you’d never leave the house

Eh?? Never the leave the house? No, just not having the vaccine.

Imagine if I'd said to one you guys that I hope you suffer a blood clot on the brain, I'd be f**kin lynched on here and probably banned.
BST would tell me how morally corrupt I am.

I've been working non stop through out this, I've heard plenty of people say they've tested positive without so much as a runny nose and a bit of a temperature. Sounds like it's you who's scared to go out until everyone is vaxxed up.

I’ve also worked everyday throughout cocker.

Yes some people get mild symptoms, there’s thousands that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?


dickos1

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #44 on July 15, 2021, 07:36:55 pm by dickos1 »
DBR/Glyn (and Nudga if you are still reading)

The graph below is the scary one for me. It shows that there has been a constant link between hospitalisations and deaths right the way through this epidemic. Including in the current wave, after vaccinations.

But here's the scary thing. To make those two sets of data lay on top of each other, I've not been consistent with the vertical axes. The right hand one (deaths) increases by a lot more than the left hand one (hospital cases). (By which I mean there are 9 doublings on the right hand axis and only 6 doublings on the left hand one.)

What this is saying is that right through the epidemic, before vaccinations or not, if you were admitted to hospital with COVID at a low point in the outbreak, you had a 1-in-16 chance of dying. Whereas if you went in at the very height of the epidemic, you had a 1-in-3 or 4 chance of dying. And there is no evidence yet that the vaccinations have had ANY effect on those relationships. Basically, what seems to be happening is that when the hospitals get overloaded, the quality of care they can give falls off a cliff. And we are running a serious risk of overloading them once again.




As has been mentioned in this thread earlier, the majority of these cases are the younger people who haven’t been vaccinated and who are a lot less likely to need hospitalisation.
So the trend from earlier waves won’t be relevant in this one.

Nudga

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #45 on July 15, 2021, 07:59:41 pm by Nudga »
But there’s 60 million or so been vaccinated,
If you were worried about risk rates like this you’d never leave the house

Eh?? Never the leave the house? No, just not having the vaccine.

Imagine if I'd said to one you guys that I hope you suffer a blood clot on the brain, I'd be f**kin lynched on here and probably banned.
BST would tell me how morally corrupt I am.

I've been working non stop through out this, I've heard plenty of people say they've tested positive without so much as a runny nose and a bit of a temperature. Sounds like it's you who's scared to go out until everyone is vaxxed up.

I’ve also worked everyday throughout cocker.

Yes some people get mild symptoms, there’s thousands that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?



I'll reword that for you, Cocker.

Yes there's thousands of people who get mild symptoms and some that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #46 on July 15, 2021, 08:21:38 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
DBR/Glyn (and Nudga if you are still reading)

The graph below is the scary one for me. It shows that there has been a constant link between hospitalisations and deaths right the way through this epidemic. Including in the current wave, after vaccinations.

But here's the scary thing. To make those two sets of data lay on top of each other, I've not been consistent with the vertical axes. The right hand one (deaths) increases by a lot more than the left hand one (hospital cases). (By which I mean there are 9 doublings on the right hand axis and only 6 doublings on the left hand one.)

What this is saying is that right through the epidemic, before vaccinations or not, if you were admitted to hospital with COVID at a low point in the outbreak, you had a 1-in-16 chance of dying. Whereas if you went in at the very height of the epidemic, you had a 1-in-3 or 4 chance of dying. And there is no evidence yet that the vaccinations have had ANY effect on those relationships. Basically, what seems to be happening is that when the hospitals get overloaded, the quality of care they can give falls off a cliff. And we are running a serious risk of overloading them once again.




As has been mentioned in this thread earlier, the majority of these cases are the younger people who haven’t been vaccinated and who are a lot less likely to need hospitalisation.
So the trend from earlier waves won’t be relevant in this one.

That's what I'd have expected.

But have a look at that graph I posted. The trend of deaths per hospital admission is, so far, following EXACTLY the same path as waves 1 and 2. That's not an opinion or a prediction. It's an established fact.

wilts rover

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #47 on July 15, 2021, 08:39:01 pm by wilts rover »
But there’s 60 million or so been vaccinated,
If you were worried about risk rates like this you’d never leave the house

Eh?? Never the leave the house? No, just not having the vaccine.

Imagine if I'd said to one you guys that I hope you suffer a blood clot on the brain, I'd be f**kin lynched on here and probably banned.
BST would tell me how morally corrupt I am.

I've been working non stop through out this, I've heard plenty of people say they've tested positive without so much as a runny nose and a bit of a temperature. Sounds like it's you who's scared to go out until everyone is vaxxed up.

I’ve also worked everyday throughout cocker.

Yes some people get mild symptoms, there’s thousands that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?



I'll reword that for you, Cocker.

Yes there's thousands of people who get mild symptoms and some that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?


'Some' of course though to be in the 10's possibly 100's of thousands. In a recent survey 22% of people who have experienced long covid have yet to return to work.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/224853/over-million-adults-england-have-long/
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/15/long-covid-has-more-than-200-symptoms-study-finds

dickos1

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #48 on July 15, 2021, 08:39:58 pm by dickos1 »
But there’s 60 million or so been vaccinated,
If you were worried about risk rates like this you’d never leave the house

Eh?? Never the leave the house? No, just not having the vaccine.

Imagine if I'd said to one you guys that I hope you suffer a blood clot on the brain, I'd be f**kin lynched on here and probably banned.
BST would tell me how morally corrupt I am.

I've been working non stop through out this, I've heard plenty of people say they've tested positive without so much as a runny nose and a bit of a temperature. Sounds like it's you who's scared to go out until everyone is vaxxed up.

I’ve also worked everyday throughout cocker.

Yes some people get mild symptoms, there’s thousands that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?



I'll reword that for you, Cocker.

Yes there's thousands of people who get mild symptoms and some that get serious symptoms what’s hard to understand about that?


So if you acknowledge that thousands get serious illness from it, how can you think it’s ok for the people who get mild symptoms to walk about infecting people who may get the serious illness?

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #49 on July 15, 2021, 09:02:24 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Nudga clearly hasn't had it. I did it was grim, properly grim.  Nothing worse than struggling for breath walking around your house.

But I don't think we need another lockdown, the severe illness is much less of an issue now than it was.

River Don

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #50 on July 15, 2021, 11:54:31 pm by River Don »
Nudga clearly hasn't had it. I did it was grim, properly grim.  Nothing worse than struggling for breath walking around your house.

But I don't think we need another lockdown, the severe illness is much less of an issue now than it was.

It affects people in different ways. I know a 95 year old who had it and only felt a bit off it for a week or so.

Then again I know a lad in his late 30s who had bleeding on the brain after it, surgery for 14 hours, where they literally had to take the top of his skull of to relieve the pressure. He's still recuperating months later.

since-1969

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #51 on July 16, 2021, 03:04:33 pm by since-1969 »
Should the club put in some sort of short term strategy in social distancing measures place to help provide confidence for those who may not want to attend if the news of Covid-19 continues to rise .

i_ateallthepies

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #52 on July 16, 2021, 04:59:45 pm by i_ateallthepies »
Weekly update from Dr Rupert Suckling - Doncaster Council Director of Public Health:

"Our rates of COVID infection are the highest they have been in the entire pandemic for the period of 4-10 July at a rate of 605.7 cases per 100,000. We have 15 residents in hospital, two of which are in intensive care. Half of the people in hospital are under 50 and half are over 50. Therefore it shows that although the vaccination programme has weakened the link between infection hospitalisation and death it’s not broken completely."


I expect the attendance will be a bit thin for the opening game, that's if we are even allowed to attend.

River Don

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #53 on July 16, 2021, 05:06:48 pm by River Don »
New cases pass the 50,000 mark today and nearly 4,000 in hospital.

But it's starting to look very much like the sheer number of people self isolating is going to make it difficult to keep business as usual going for long.

dickos1

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #54 on July 16, 2021, 11:02:30 pm by dickos1 »
Weekly update from Dr Rupert Suckling - Doncaster Council Director of Public Health:

"Our rates of COVID infection are the highest they have been in the entire pandemic for the period of 4-10 July at a rate of 605.7 cases per 100,000. We have 15 residents in hospital, two of which are in intensive care. Half of the people in hospital are under 50 and half are over 50. Therefore it shows that although the vaccination programme has weakened the link between infection hospitalisation and death it’s not broken completely."


I expect the attendance will be a bit thin for the opening game, that's if we are even allowed to attend.

So we’ve 7 or 8 people in hospital over 50 due to covid….
Go back to last year and we had hundreds,

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #55 on July 17, 2021, 12:48:22 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Weekly update from Dr Rupert Suckling - Doncaster Council Director of Public Health:

"Our rates of COVID infection are the highest they have been in the entire pandemic for the period of 4-10 July at a rate of 605.7 cases per 100,000. We have 15 residents in hospital, two of which are in intensive care. Half of the people in hospital are under 50 and half are over 50. Therefore it shows that although the vaccination programme has weakened the link between infection hospitalisation and death it’s not broken completely."


I expect the attendance will be a bit thin for the opening game, that's if we are even allowed to attend.

So we’ve 7 or 8 people in hospital over 50 due to covid….
Go back to last year and we had hundreds,

The maximum number of COVID hospital cases in the Doncaster and Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals Trust area (so more than just Donny Council) was 234 on 13 November last year.
 There have only been 16 days in the entire epidemic when that number was over 200.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/05/Covid-Publication-06-04-2021.xlsx

That peak of hospitalisations came 3 weeks after the peak in new cases in Doncaster.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Doncaster

What you aren't factoring in is that we are very likely nowhere near the peak of the current wave of new cases. So comparing the hospitalisations now with what they were at the last peak doesn't make any sense. What you need to be thinking about is what the situation will be after we hit the peak of new infections. Which very likely isn't coming for a month at the most optimistic best. Then consider that the number of COVID hospital cases in Donny & Bassetlaw Trust increased three fold in the last week of June (admittedly small numbers - from 3 to 9, but exponential growth starts with small numbers - and then they get a lot bigger very quickly). Whitty said today that total hospital cases across the country were doubling every three weeks. If that does pan out and we don't see the peak in hospital cases until early Sept, which is a very optimistic outlook, you're looking at Donny hospital cases approaching the previous peak by then. Just at the time of year that the NHS usually prioritises routine operations before the winter flu season.

dickos1

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #56 on July 17, 2021, 08:03:30 am by dickos1 »
What your doing is, attempting to analyse everything whilst ignoring the effects of the vaccination.
The number of cases doesn’t mean the same as what it meant before the vaccine roll out, so to keep suggesting the same things are going to happen is wrong.
The conversion rate from cases to hospitalisation won’t be the same but you talk as though is guranteed to be the same, it won’t be.
Also according to your stats, the 14th July had the lowest number of cases for around 3 weeks so maybe we’re a lot closer to the peak than you keep suggesting.
Throw into the mix that hundred of thousands more people are being vaccinated everyday and you can only conclude it’s not going to be anywhere near as bad as your suggesting

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #57 on July 17, 2021, 11:13:17 am by BillyStubbsTears »
I give up. It's like talking to someone with his fingers in his ears. You are repeatedly ignoring the points I'm making.

I am NOT ignoring the effect of the vaccination program. I've factored that into everything I've said on this topic. What YOU are doing is simply assuming that the vaccination program will take the problem away. That is dangerously misguided.

dickos1

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #58 on July 17, 2021, 11:15:57 am by dickos1 »
I’m not
I’m just accepting that a comparison to rates before the vaccine came along is nonsensical

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Is Another lockdown coming ?
« Reply #59 on July 17, 2021, 12:06:10 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
But it ISN'T nonsensical.

There was a rate of serious illness per infection before vaccines. There is one now.

The link between infection rates and rates of serious consequence has changed. But it is there. And it hasn't changed by as much as you seem to think it has.

The truly nonsensical thing is to wilfully ignore what we know abiut this link. Which is what Johnson and Javid are doing every time they make an announcement. They are fostering precisely the reaction that you are manifesting.

 

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