Can we do it?

[normal rules]

I’d like rovers to finish strongly of course. With Haks continuing to justify the club spending on his wages for next season . I’d also be chuffed if all those who backed a top half finish came good . And to beat last seasons points tally would surely be a target for GM.

[belton rover]

If we keep winning, the points gap keeps closing.

Not necessarily, that’s the problem.

Technically, you’re right, of course. But although we might win a game and the points gap doesn’t change, we could also close the gap by three points. I don’t have the stats, but I suspect that during our recent good run, every win has pretty much resulted in the gap closing each time.

[Campsall rover]

If we win at Crawley we can all start getting exited.
A draw is no good if we are going to catch them
We don’t have any games in hand on them.

If we don’t win then it’s a top 10/12 target.
If we do win then the impossible is still possible and nothing wrong with believing it could happen until it can’t happen.
One game at a time 3 points at a time.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If we keep winning, the points gap keeps closing.

Not necessarily, that’s the problem.

Technically, you’re right, of course. But although we might win a game and the points gap doesn’t change, we could also close the gap by three points. I don’t have the stats, but I suspect that during our recent good run, every win has pretty much resulted in the gap closing each time.

It's an easy thing to appraise on average.

The team in 7th place generally averages about 1.6 points per game. Maybe a little more or less, but not much.

So, on average, every time you win, you make up about 1.4 points on them, every time you lose you slip by 1.6 and every time you draw you slip by 0.6.

Doesn't mean that's exactly what happens every week of course, but on average over a moderate spell of matches, that has to happen.

9 matches ago, when this very good run of form started, we were 15 points behind 7th place.

Since then, we have won 6, drawn 2 and lost one of the last 9 games. So, according to the logic above, we should have made up 6x1.4=8.4 points on 7th place from the six wins, and slipped by (1x1.6)+(2x0.6)=2.8 points for the matches we haven't won.

Net catch up 5.6 points, so we'd expect to be 9.4 points behind 7th place now. We're actually 10 points behind, so that's very nearly bang on.

Interestingly, the side in 7th place 9 games ago was Notts C. We have pretty much caught them now. But Crawley, who are now in 7th, were 10 points ahead of us back then, and they still are today

[belton rover]

If we keep winning, the points gap keeps closing.

Not necessarily, that’s the problem.

Technically, you’re right, of course. But although we might win a game and the points gap doesn’t change, we could also close the gap by three points. I don’t have the stats, but I suspect that during our recent good run, every win has pretty much resulted in the gap closing each time.

It's an easy thing to appraise on average.

The team in 7th place generally averages about 1.6 points per game. Maybe a little more or less, but not much.

So, on average, every time you win, you make up about 1.4 points on them, every time you lose you slip by 1.6 and every time you draw you slip by 0.6.

Doesn't mean that's exactly what happens every week of course, but on average over a moderate spell of matches, that has to happen.

9 matches ago, when this very good run of form started, we were 15 points behind 7th place.

Since then, we have won 6, drawn 2 and lost one of the last 9 games. So, according to the logic above, we should have made up 6x1.4=8.4 points on 7th place from the six wins, and slipped by (1x1.6)+(2x0.6)=2.8 points for the matches we haven't won.

Net catch up 5.6 points, so we'd expect to be 9.4 points behind 7th place now. We're actually 10 points behind, so that's very nearly bang on.

Interestingly, the side in 7th place 9 games ago was Notts C. We have pretty much caught them now. But Crawley, who are now in 7th, were 10 points ahead of us back then, and they still are today

That’s fascinating Billy. Genuinely.
With that logic, if we win our last 8 games we will finish 1 point above Crawley.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep Belton.

I've been saying for a couple of weeks that the only chance we have of making 7th place is to win every match left.

If we did that the final 17 games of the season would have been, I think, the second best run of form in our entire history.

It is highly, highly unlikely. But...

[IDM]

Don’t forget that it isn’t just Crawley to consider, the teams in 5th and 6th could also slump in form?

As for ambition, if we don’t sign Haks it doesn’t mean we lack ambition, more that he or his agent doesn’t want to be here in league 2 next season..

I don’t think he had a particularly good game yesterday..

[Chris Black come back]

Reminder that if we win our remaining eight games that will help form the longest winning run in our entire league history, breaking all league records since the club was formed in 1879.

[Alan Southstand]

BST:

‘ But Crawley, who are now in 7th, were 10 points ahead of us back then, and they still are today’

And when you look at the 10 game form table, it’s easy to see why that’s the case! We’re top and they’re second. Big game on Friday.

[IDM]

I will be satisfied if our points tally at the end of the season starts with a 6…

[BillyStubbsTears]

Reminder that if we win our remaining eight games that will help form the longest winning run in our entire league history, breaking all league records since the club was formed in 1879.

This.

Best we achieved in the juggernaut 03/04 season was 6 wins on the bounce and 11 from 12.

Best we achieved in the epoch-making 46/47 season was 10 wins on the bounce and 11 out of 12.

To do this, we'd need to have finished this season winning our last 11 games.

Records are there to be broken, but you'd be a fool to put money on it. (Hand up. I WAS that fool at the start of the season.)

[Colin C No.3]

I will be satisfied if our points tally at the end of the season starts with a 6…

It will start with a 6 & end in a 7 according to my analysis. Good enough for an 8th or 9th finish.

[Padge_DRFC]

Don’t forget that it isn’t just Crawley to consider, the teams in 5th and 6th could also slump in form?

As for ambition, if we don’t sign Haks it doesn’t mean we lack ambition, more that he or his agent doesn’t want to be here in league 2 next season..

I don’t think he had a particularly good game yesterday..

I'd be annoyed did he ends up at another league 2 club

[Upton Rover]

If we beat Crawly the dream is well and truly on

Or even Crawley

To excited to spill right

[Upton Rover]

Reminder that if we win our remaining eight games that will help form the longest winning run in our entire league history, breaking all league records since the club was formed in 1879.

Records are there to be beaten

[dickos1]

Another good win and things are finally starting to look good for next season, there are far to many teams above us to make the play offs, which could be a good thing in the long run

The number of teams above us is surely irrelevent.
If 73 points gets you a play off spot then that’s what we need regardless of whether there are 2 teams above us or 12

That's correct (IF 73 points is the target).

The problem is, to hit 73 points would require us to have finished the last 18 games of the season with 15 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. That's not impossible of course, but as far as I can see, we've only once in our history had a run as good as that, at the start of the 1946/47 season.

Be a grand end to the season if we did achieve that, mind.

Not suggesting it’s something we’re going to achieve. Just pointing out the number of teams inbetween us and the playoffs is irrelevent.
It’s the point target that’s the important thing

Which would be an easier scenario?

1. We are sitting in 8th, 10 points behind 7th
2. We are sitting in 18th, 10 points behind 7th

Of course it’s relevant, as things stand we have to overhaul 10 points AND hope that our total isn’t matched or close to matched by any of the 10 teams above us. If we were just a place behind then all we would have to do was overhaul one team.

Of course it isn’t
If you need 73 points to reach the playoffs then it doesn’t matter how many teams are between you and the playoffs.
If at the end of the season the 7th place team has 72 points all it means is that if we’d have got 73 points we would’ve reached the playoffs

[Chris Black come back]

I will be satisfied if our points tally at the end of the season starts with a 6…

It will start with a 6 & end in a 7 according to my analysis. Good enough for an 8th or 9th finish.

I will be satisfied if our points tally at the end of the season starts with a 6…

Three targets to aim for that are respectively more difficult but could be realistically achievable:

Can we beat points total for last season?
Can we finish top half?
Can we finish top ten?

[Avsuptem]

Making the play offs is a delicious and tantalising fantasy to enjoy but it will be destroyed by just one defeat. Finishing at the top of Grant's 18 game table and in the top half of league 2 is very achievable and will put us amongst the favorites for promotion next season.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Making the play offs is a delicious and tantalising fantasy to enjoy but it will be destroyed by just one defeat. Finishing at the top of Grant's 18 game table and in the top half of league 2 is very achievable and will put us amongst the favorites for promotion next season.

I love the description along with the dose of reality.

We've not been tantalised for some time so this is a very nice indulgence to be top of the form tables and wondering what if.

[DRNaith]

I'm maybe going to upset a few people here, but I don't want promotion this season. There's been so much whining and rubbish talked that I'd rather have a solid promotion season, next season (I know that isn't guaranteed), rather than creep up and then have the same whining and anger on here because we're not throwing millions at getting promoted into the championship.

Let's continue to build, it looks like it's been working behind the scenes, for most of this season.

[Colin C No.3]

Reminder that if we win our remaining eight games that will help form the longest winning run in our entire league history, breaking all league records since the club was formed in 1879.

Records are there to be beaten

As I did with a baseball bat to my ex wife’s collection of ABBA records.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update on my model.

12th place: 63 points.

7th place: 75 points.

Taking an average over the past fortnight, I'd say probably 72-73 for 7th and 65-66 for top half.

[Colin C No.3]

9th place 67 points according to my Sinclair Spectrum.

That’s where I ‘lay my hat’.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'd guess that we end up on 62 points, in 13-14th place.

[Spud]

If we keep winning, the points gap keeps closing.

Not necessarily, that’s the problem.

Technically, you’re right, of course. But although we might win a game and the points gap doesn’t change, we could also close the gap by three points. I don’t have the stats, but I suspect that during our recent good run, every win has pretty much resulted in the gap closing each time.

It's an easy thing to appraise on average.

The team in 7th place generally averages about 1.6 points per game. Maybe a little more or less, but not much.

So, on average, every time you win, you make up about 1.4 points on them, every time you lose you slip by 1.6 and every time you draw you slip by 0.6.

Doesn't mean that's exactly what happens every week of course, but on average over a moderate spell of matches, that has to happen.

9 matches ago, when this very good run of form started, we were 15 points behind 7th place.

Since then, we have won 6, drawn 2 and lost one of the last 9 games. So, according to the logic above, we should have made up 6x1.4=8.4 points on 7th place from the six wins, and slipped by (1x1.6)+(2x0.6)=2.8 points for the matches we haven't won.

Net catch up 5.6 points, so we'd expect to be 9.4 points behind 7th place now. We're actually 10 points behind, so that's very nearly bang on.

Interestingly, the side in 7th place 9 games ago was Notts C. We have pretty much caught them now. But Crawley, who are now in 7th, were 10 points ahead of us back then, and they still are today

Of all the stats & models I read this is a logical & simple way of looking at it.
What a great way of seeing things.

[Upton Rover]

Making the play offs is a delicious and tantalising fantasy to enjoy but it will be destroyed by just one defeat. Finishing at the top of Grant's 18 game table and in the top half of league 2 is very achievable and will put us amongst the favorites for promotion next season.

I totally agree that if a defeat comes then that’s it for this season, so until then, the dream is on

[drfcsteve]

Opta have updated their predictions following the last round of games and we now apparently have a 0.2% chance of finishing 7th, a top half finish (12th) is now a 5.3% chance.

[RoversInSpain]

We have zero chance, however I want to believe otherwise, so, one for the statos, has any team ever gained a play off place from 18th with 8 games left…. ?
Go on someone give me hope…

[Campsall rover]

We have zero chance, however I want to believe otherwise, so, one for the statos, has any team ever gained a play off place from 18th with 8 games left…. ?
Go on someone give me hope…

Probably not.
It’s the points difference between 18th and 7th that is the crucial factor.

Not sure where Bristol Rovers were with 8 to play was it 2 yrs ago or 3
They came from no where to pip Northampton with that 7-0 win against Scunthorpe on the last day.
They were higher than 18th with 8 to play though, that’s for sure.

[Campsall rover]

Just had a look.
Season 2021/22 two years ago Bristol Rovers got 20 points from the last 8 games. 6 wins & 2 draws.
They finished 3rd on 80 points
So they had 60 points from 38 game.
We have 49 points from 38 games. We are only aiming for 7th place not 3rd.
If we get 20 points it probably won’t be enough. I think we need 22 points and that includes winning tomorrow. We have to win this one as Crawley are the team in the best position based on games played 38 and current points 59 to get 7th spot.
Fail to win tomorrow and it’s all over. That’s 99.9% I reckon.