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Quote from: belton rover on March 24, 2024, 09:23:00 amIf we keep winning, the points gap keeps closing. Not necessarily, that’s the problem.
If we keep winning, the points gap keeps closing.
Quote from: drfcsteve on March 24, 2024, 10:39:31 amQuote from: belton rover on March 24, 2024, 09:23:00 amIf we keep winning, the points gap keeps closing. Not necessarily, that’s the problem. Technically, you’re right, of course. But although we might win a game and the points gap doesn’t change, we could also close the gap by three points. I don’t have the stats, but I suspect that during our recent good run, every win has pretty much resulted in the gap closing each time.
Quote from: belton rover on March 24, 2024, 02:15:12 pmQuote from: drfcsteve on March 24, 2024, 10:39:31 amQuote from: belton rover on March 24, 2024, 09:23:00 amIf we keep winning, the points gap keeps closing. Not necessarily, that’s the problem. Technically, you’re right, of course. But although we might win a game and the points gap doesn’t change, we could also close the gap by three points. I don’t have the stats, but I suspect that during our recent good run, every win has pretty much resulted in the gap closing each time.It's an easy thing to appraise on average.The team in 7th place generally averages about 1.6 points per game. Maybe a little more or less, but not much.So, on average, every time you win, you make up about 1.4 points on them, every time you lose you slip by 1.6 and every time you draw you slip by 0.6.Doesn't mean that's exactly what happens every week of course, but on average over a moderate spell of matches, that has to happen.9 matches ago, when this very good run of form started, we were 15 points behind 7th place.Since then, we have won 6, drawn 2 and lost one of the last 9 games. So, according to the logic above, we should have made up 6x1.4=8.4 points on 7th place from the six wins, and slipped by (1x1.6)+(2x0.6)=2.8 points for the matches we haven't won. Net catch up 5.6 points, so we'd expect to be 9.4 points behind 7th place now. We're actually 10 points behind, so that's very nearly bang on.Interestingly, the side in 7th place 9 games ago was Notts C. We have pretty much caught them now. But Crawley, who are now in 7th, were 10 points ahead of us back then, and they still are today
Reminder that if we win our remaining eight games that will help form the longest winning run in our entire league history, breaking all league records since the club was formed in 1879.
I will be satisfied if our points tally at the end of the season starts with a 6…
Don’t forget that it isn’t just Crawley to consider, the teams in 5th and 6th could also slump in form?As for ambition, if we don’t sign Haks it doesn’t mean we lack ambition, more that he or his agent doesn’t want to be here in league 2 next season..I don’t think he had a particularly good game yesterday..
Quote from: Upton Rover on March 23, 2024, 09:09:24 pmIf we beat Crawly the dream is well and truly onOr even Crawley
If we beat Crawly the dream is well and truly on
Quote from: dickos1 on March 24, 2024, 07:34:15 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2024, 11:41:51 pmQuote from: dickos1 on March 23, 2024, 10:16:48 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on March 23, 2024, 09:50:03 pmAnother good win and things are finally starting to look good for next season, there are far to many teams above us to make the play offs, which could be a good thing in the long runThe number of teams above us is surely irrelevent. If 73 points gets you a play off spot then that’s what we need regardless of whether there are 2 teams above us or 12 That's correct (IF 73 points is the target).The problem is, to hit 73 points would require us to have finished the last 18 games of the season with 15 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. That's not impossible of course, but as far as I can see, we've only once in our history had a run as good as that, at the start of the 1946/47 season. Be a grand end to the season if we did achieve that, mind.Not suggesting it’s something we’re going to achieve. Just pointing out the number of teams inbetween us and the playoffs is irrelevent. It’s the point target that’s the important thing Which would be an easier scenario?1. We are sitting in 8th, 10 points behind 7th2. We are sitting in 18th, 10 points behind 7thOf course it’s relevant, as things stand we have to overhaul 10 points AND hope that our total isn’t matched or close to matched by any of the 10 teams above us. If we were just a place behind then all we would have to do was overhaul one team.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on March 23, 2024, 11:41:51 pmQuote from: dickos1 on March 23, 2024, 10:16:48 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on March 23, 2024, 09:50:03 pmAnother good win and things are finally starting to look good for next season, there are far to many teams above us to make the play offs, which could be a good thing in the long runThe number of teams above us is surely irrelevent. If 73 points gets you a play off spot then that’s what we need regardless of whether there are 2 teams above us or 12 That's correct (IF 73 points is the target).The problem is, to hit 73 points would require us to have finished the last 18 games of the season with 15 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. That's not impossible of course, but as far as I can see, we've only once in our history had a run as good as that, at the start of the 1946/47 season. Be a grand end to the season if we did achieve that, mind.Not suggesting it’s something we’re going to achieve. Just pointing out the number of teams inbetween us and the playoffs is irrelevent. It’s the point target that’s the important thing
Quote from: dickos1 on March 23, 2024, 10:16:48 pmQuote from: bpoolrover on March 23, 2024, 09:50:03 pmAnother good win and things are finally starting to look good for next season, there are far to many teams above us to make the play offs, which could be a good thing in the long runThe number of teams above us is surely irrelevent. If 73 points gets you a play off spot then that’s what we need regardless of whether there are 2 teams above us or 12 That's correct (IF 73 points is the target).The problem is, to hit 73 points would require us to have finished the last 18 games of the season with 15 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. That's not impossible of course, but as far as I can see, we've only once in our history had a run as good as that, at the start of the 1946/47 season. Be a grand end to the season if we did achieve that, mind.
Quote from: bpoolrover on March 23, 2024, 09:50:03 pmAnother good win and things are finally starting to look good for next season, there are far to many teams above us to make the play offs, which could be a good thing in the long runThe number of teams above us is surely irrelevent. If 73 points gets you a play off spot then that’s what we need regardless of whether there are 2 teams above us or 12
Another good win and things are finally starting to look good for next season, there are far to many teams above us to make the play offs, which could be a good thing in the long run
Quote from: IDM on March 24, 2024, 04:33:55 pmI will be satisfied if our points tally at the end of the season starts with a 6…It will start with a 6 & end in a 7 according to my analysis. Good enough for an 8th or 9th finish.
Making the play offs is a delicious and tantalising fantasy to enjoy but it will be destroyed by just one defeat. Finishing at the top of Grant's 18 game table and in the top half of league 2 is very achievable and will put us amongst the favorites for promotion next season.
Quote from: Chris Black come back on March 24, 2024, 04:30:06 pmReminder that if we win our remaining eight games that will help form the longest winning run in our entire league history, breaking all league records since the club was formed in 1879.Records are there to be beaten
We have zero chance, however I want to believe otherwise, so, one for the statos, has any team ever gained a play off place from 18th with 8 games left…. ?Go on someone give me hope…