Coronavirus

[Dagenham Rover]

Anyone know if this includes the deaths at home that the ONS announced earlier today?

The figures from England were all deaths in hospitals.

They said they were going to include all deaths hospital and home from today so to expect a jump in figures

[ChrisBx]

Anyone know if this includes the deaths at home that the ONS announced earlier today?

The figures from England were all deaths in hospitals.

They said they were going to include all deaths hospital and home from today so to expect a jump in figures

The Department of Health and Social Care have since confirmed that today's number relates only to those hospitalised. I believe the Office for National Statistics will be the ones reporting total deaths, including those in the community, albeit on a weekly basis.

[adamtherover]

Anyone know if this includes the deaths at home that the ONS announced earlier today?

with relation to deaths at home, is there any suggestion that theres no beds available for seriously sick, or are they sending folk home to die in peaceful surroundings, if theres nothing else they can do? 
Or would these just be traditional home deaths due to flu, natural causes etc?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Very sobering and moving comment on Twitter this morning from a front line NHS worker.

Said that there should never have been the need to see NHS staff as heroes. You only need heroes when everything is going worng. If there had been proper planning and preparation, the NHS staff could just simply be doing their job professionally. Instead, they are being asked to go into the front line with utterly sub-standard PPE. And many of them WILL die as a result of that.

Like I keep saying, when this is over, there are some very, very serious questions to be asked on what the f**k was going on in Govt throughout February.

[wilts rover]

The figure today was deaths in hospitals as recorded by the NHS.

In addition the ONS have included a extra 40 people as having died of covid-19 at home or in a care home - up to 20th March - when the total was 170. This means the total mortality rate up to 20th March was underestimated by 25%.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/england-and-wales-coronavirus-death-toll-40-higher-than-previously-stated

[Copps is Magic]

Warning - more numbers. Disclaimer, just my own thinking, probably way off, but I am trying to make sense of the academic reports posted earlier and the figues released by the government.

1789 confirmed hospital deaths in the UK.

The NHS says it takes on average 5 days for a death to be confirmed, checked, registered and released to the public etc.

Over the last 5 days, covid-19 related deaths have increased by an average of 25% per day.

Assuming this continues for the next 5-days (it won't, its an assumption) would = 5460 deaths (announced on the 5th of April but largely falling within March)

Assuming the link Wilts shared is also correct, that 25% more deaths could be at (care)homes, = 6825 deaths in total.

6825 deaths (broadly up until 31st March) divided by the 1.79m total cases estimated by Imperial College study would = a total mortality rate of 0.38%.

Working the other way round, if the study in the Lancet is correct that the mortality rate is 0.66%, then the total cases in the UK up until March 31st would have be 1.03m (actually very close to the lower confidence bound in the Imperial study)

Two conclusions, the numbers are converging as we have more data. Secondly, I would take an educated guess the overall mortality rate is well below 1%.

[i_ateallthepies]

Very sobering and moving comment on Twitter this morning from a front line NHS worker.

Said that there should never have been the need to see NHS staff as heroes. You only need heroes when everything is going worng. If there had been proper planning and preparation, the NHS staff could just simply be doing their job professionally. Instead, they are being asked to go into the front line with utterly sub-standard PPE. And many of them WILL die as a result of that.

Like I keep saying, when this is over, there are some very, very serious questions to be asked on what the f**k was going on in Govt throughout February.

Working on the assumption that the NHS holds a legal duty of care to its employees (plus, there is a specific regulation requiring the employer to provide the PPE required to afford appropriate protection), there could well be a goodly number of executives having their collars felt by the HSE.

[wilts rover]

Essential reading.

Dr Stephen Lee (ex Tory MP & Justice Minister) who was part of Exercise Cyngus, the 2016 pandemic rehearsal, discussing what conclusions came out of that exercise and the Johnson government's response to them:

https://twitter.com/DrPhillipLee/status/1244731929636810755

[Copps is Magic]

Meanwhile in the US, this is what happens when you let neoliberalism seep into your healthcare system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5NOGAxLBfo

[BillyStubbsTears]

There are also NHS workers keeping journals of the conditions they are being expected to work in, so that, if they die, their families will have information on which to base claims against the NHS management.

This is horrific.

[BillyStubbsTears]

CiM.

I like the analysis, but I'm not sure this bit is right.

6825 deaths (broadly up until 31st March) divided by the 1.79m total cases estimated by Imperial College study would = a total mortality rate of 0.38%.

Surely you need to factor in the delay between infection starting and death?

So if there are 6825 total deaths as of today, you need to divide that by the number of cases 10-15 days ago. Which would make the CFR a bit above 1%.

[wilts rover]

Michael Gove said at the presser today the reason they had not been able to ramp up testing was due to lack of the chemical agents used in the test.

British Chemical Agency said - news to us gov, there's plenty - and if you wanted more why didn't you mention it when we spoke to the business minister today.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245046542974750720

[selby]

Reports in Germany saying that most  of the test's already done there have been on an age group averaging in the mid thirties years old bracket.  Mostly on younger fit age groups returning from skiing holidays.
  The worry is that they have passed it on to an older group on return to their families and work, and numbers are going to have a sharp upturn after the incubation period.
 Hopefully not, but could show a weakness in their testing procedure.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

My first reaction to that was, "It's unbelievable that a senior Cabinet Minister would lie do brazenly about literally THE most important thing that Govt has had to manage in the previous 75 years.

My second reaction was, "OK, pull back on that. It's Gove. He has no ability whatsoever other than his ability to lie with a straight face."

At what point do the "Well they all lie" crowd start to get upset about this?

[wilts rover]

Sorry Billy I can't answer that.

All I can do is point out what has been said and the evidence to back it up/contradict it. If people prefer being lied to than questioning why the public are not being told the truth - well what do you say?

[BigH]

Apart from Sunak, lock every member of the cabinet away in a room for a few weeks.

Would anyone really notice?

(Not the same room obviously!)

[Bristol Red Rover]

Very sobering and moving comment on Twitter this morning from a front line NHS worker.

Said that.... they are being asked to go into the front line with utterly sub-standard PPE. And many of them WILL die as a result of that.

I'm hearing this kind of thing quite a lot. Factually it makes no sense - people are likely to catch the virus whatever. Saying the above is hysteria, and feeds more hysteria. I do understand the fear and anxiety and anger being felt.

More important to be shouting about than the PPE is the excess hours some are doing, the stress they are under in that, the way they'll likely be eating on the go, not so able to get good quality food. That all takes its toll on a person, their immune system, and means come the virus they are more likely to suffer. That kills.

Pretty fecked up that the NHS as an employer creates illness in this way, but then I've only seen one drip of advice about self care from the government. Basic, simple to solve health issues are dealt with appallingly all round.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BRR.
I'm quoting the editor of The Lancet. He said precisely this at the weekend.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext

As I understand it, the reason why medics with substandard PPE are at particular risk is connected with the viral load. Our bodies are totally unprepared for CV-19. So when we get it, our immune system has to learn from scratch how to respond. And if you come into contact with a lot of virus, very quickly, the virus can do it's damage before your immune system figures out how to respond.

That appears to be the reason why frontline medics have been hard hit all round the world. Not providing suitable PPE for them, when you've had two months to prepare is an absolute outrage.

[Filo]

The problem here is they are wheeling out a different Minister everyday, Gove will not get pulled up on his lies because he won’t be there tomorrow

[knockers]

My daughter works on the respiratory ward at DRI (now covid ward) which is full) and has been wearing full PPE all day apart from her lunch. Her face is red raw and she barely had the strength to eat her tea before retiring for bed.
The wife is going to look at taking up an urgent request for help to start working in the mortuary at Roth Gen instead of her usual clinical audit job.
All leave has been cancelled until June and the Easter bank holidays have been cancelled and are now normal days.
The next few weeks are going to see huge numbers and if you are still thinking this is not serious then you must be crackers!

[tyke1962]

This is a fecking scandalous .

Once this thing is over this government needs to be held to account .


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/31/nhs-staff-gagged-over-coronavirus-protective-equipment-shortages

[tyke1962]

My daughter works on the respiratory ward at DRI (now covid ward) which is full) and has been wearing full PPE all day apart from her lunch. Her face is red raw and she barely had the strength to eat her tea before retiring for bed.
The wife is going to start working in the mortuary at Roth Gen instead of her usual clinical audit job.
All leave has been cancelled until June and the Easter bank holidays have been cancelled and are now normal days.
The next few weeks are going to see huge numbers and if you are still thinking this is not serious then you are must be crackers!

Can I just pass on my thanks to your daughter and your wife for the fantastic work they are doing for all us at this time .

I cannot thank them enough for the sacrifice and work they are doing in such unprecedented times .

[Filo]

My Daughter works for Sodexo (previously the NHS before they were outsourced) in the Kitchens at DRI her manager has told them they are not key workers, but insists they still have to go into work, part of her job is going up to the wards collecting patients menu’s, they have not been issued with any PPE, and are expected to go to the wards with their standard issue uniform, trousers and t shirt

[Bristol Red Rover]

BRR.
I'm quoting the editor of The Lancet. He said precisely this at the weekend.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext

As I understand it, the reason why medics with substandard PPE are at particular risk is connected with the viral load. Our bodies are totally unprepared for CV-19. So when we get it, our immune system has to learn from scratch how to respond. And if you come into contact with a lot of virus, very quickly, the virus can do it's damage before your immune system figures out how to respond.

That appears to be the reason why frontline medics have been hard hit all round the world. Not providing suitable PPE for them, when you've had two months to prepare is an absolute outrage.

Thanks for that BST, I hadn't come across the concept of viral load before.

Here's good link on that with a few differing but similar takes on it specifically relating to this virus.
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-questions-about-covid-19-and-viral-load/

So, yes, I fully take back what I said, it makes sense to protect those dealing with people who are ill with it, especially when very ill like with pneumonia where there is a huge amount of excreted viruses.

[knockers]

It’s not right Filo
Everyone starting from the bus driver taking NHS staff from the racecourse car park up to the DRI should be issued with the correct PPE

[BillyStubbsTears]

My daughter works on the respiratory ward at DRI (now covid ward) which is full) and has been wearing full PPE all day apart from her lunch. Her face is red raw and she barely had the strength to eat her tea before retiring for bed.
The wife is going to start working in the mortuary at Roth Gen instead of her usual clinical audit job.
All leave has been cancelled until June and the Easter bank holidays have been cancelled and are now normal days.
The next few weeks are going to see huge numbers and if you are still thinking this is not serious then you are must be crackers!

Can I just pass on my thanks to your daughter and your wife for the fantastic work they are doing for all us at this time .

I cannot thank them enough for the sacrifice and work they are doing in such unprecedented times .

Seconded.

I can see the Sheffield Hallamshire from the window as I type this. Everything across the city is so quiet and peaceful. And in there, there is a cohort of brilliant and hardworking professionals fighting a war on our behalf. It's a very humbling thought.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Michael Gove said at the presser today the reason they had not been able to ramp up testing was due to lack of the chemical agents used in the test.

British Chemical Agency said - news to us gov, there's plenty - and if you wanted more why didn't you mention it when we spoke to the business minister today.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1245046542974750720

I've just been listening to The World Tonight on R4.

They interviewed two medical professors from Imperial College and the London School of Tropical Medicine and asked them about this shortage of chemical reagents for testing.

One said "There's a shortage? It's the first I've heard about it. We order them regularly for our labs and we've had no problem getting them. But I suppose there must be if the Government says so."

The other said, "I've no idea if there is a global shortage, but if there is, they are very easy to make from basic chemicals which are widely available."

What in the name of holy f**k is this Govt doing? Apart from lying on an almost daily basis. About everything.

They've lied about liaising with supermarkets to get food to the vulnerable.
They've lied about contact with the EU over ordering of PPE and ventilators.
They've lied about how many tests we are doing.
Now they are lying about the reasons why we aren't doing more tests.

This is a national emergency. It is bleeding obvious that they lost 4-6 weeks of prep time by not taking this seriously back in February. They very, very least the country deserves now is honesty, not f**king arse-covering lies every day.

[tyke1962]

My daughter works on the respiratory ward at DRI (now covid ward) which is full) and has been wearing full PPE all day apart from her lunch. Her face is red raw and she barely had the strength to eat her tea before retiring for bed.
The wife is going to start working in the mortuary at Roth Gen instead of her usual clinical audit job.
All leave has been cancelled until June and the Easter bank holidays have been cancelled and are now normal days.
The next few weeks are going to see huge numbers and if you are still thinking this is not serious then you are must be crackers!

Can I just pass on my thanks to your daughter and your wife for the fantastic work they are doing for all us at this time .

I cannot thank them enough for the sacrifice and work they are doing in such unprecedented times .

Seconded.

I can see the Sheffield Hallamshire from the window as I type this. Everything across the city is so quite and peaceful. And in there, there is a cohort of brilliant and hardworking professionals fighting a war on our behalf. It's a very humbling thought.

Billy .

I know we disagree on brexit but I'm sure we agree that this government must be held to account once this thing is over .

These bstrds must never be given the opportunity to spin their way out of this and I'm confident they won't be .

The people within the NHS and social care need to say it as they experienced it .

For the last 10 years they have had to endure the sharp end of austerity and I remember only too well the Tories cheering loudly in the house when the NHS pay claim was voted down in 2017 .

It turned my stomach to see Johnson clapping the NHS last Thursday evening .

What short memories  Last Thursday night clapping Tory voters have .

Hypocrites the lot of em .

Our Day Will Come .

[SydneyRover]

better ask selby about that he seems to be happy with the current set up.

[Filo]

It’s not right Filo
Everyone starting from the bus driver taking NHS staff from the racecourse car park up to the DRI should be issued with the correct PPE

I agree, but it seems employees outsourced within the NHS are low priority, my daughter is ex NHS and therefore has a contract with Sodexo through TUPE, she refuses to go up to the wards, so Sodexo tell the zero hour employees to do that job, the zero hour employees do it for fear of not getting hours in the future, but the main point here is that cross contamination is not even considered, and no risk assessments have been done within Sodexo’s remit at DRI