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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 76952 times)

TheFunk, NickDRFC, bigbadjack, MachoMadness, drfc1951, IDM and 6 Guests are viewing this topic.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1380 on April 01, 2020, 02:02:32 PM by IDM »
Just heard R5 2pm news.  900 medical staff tested last weekend..

Only 900.

Then they repeat that the chemical industry does have the substances needed for testing, if it gets ordered.

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1381 on April 01, 2020, 02:27:52 PM by Filo »
Todays death figure for the UK 563

keyser_soze

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1382 on April 01, 2020, 02:34:46 PM by keyser_soze »
Massive jump that. I was hoping yesterdays number was just a blip from the weekend.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1383 on April 01, 2020, 02:47:49 PM by Copps is Magic »
Its a 31% increase. Higher than the recent average. Was this the day they decided to also include non-hospital deaths? That could explain it.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1384 on April 01, 2020, 02:51:54 PM by albie »
I don't think that they have abandoned the herd immunity concept, they just changed the presentation to persuade folk that they had.

Accident or design, HI becomes the fallback position if other measures are not introduced at the right time.

There is a staggering lack of competence and pre-planning in place to deal with this virus. Last ditch attempts to plug the gaps are being made, but if they do not achieve scale quickly they will make very little difference to the outcomes.

An example is that the consortium has announced 30 new ventilators will be ready for the week-end. The number needed is 30,000, which may eventually arrive, but too late for those fighting for their lives now.

What they say is based on soundbites for the media that they hope will be quickly forgotten, pushed aside by other news.

It is what they do, and how rapidly, that is the proper measure.

knockers

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1385 on April 01, 2020, 03:14:13 PM by knockers »
Its a 31% increase. Higher than the recent average. Was this the day they decided to also include non-hospital deaths? That could explain it.

It’s just hospital deaths CIM

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1386 on April 01, 2020, 03:31:19 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
When Italy went through 2000 deaths, their doubling time was 4.5 days and rising fast.

We've just gone through 2000 deaths with a doubling time of 2.9 days and falling.

We had a month and a half to learn from China.

We had 2 weeks to learn from Italy.

We didn't learn from either.

Our trend at this stage in the epidemic is worse than any country in the world, except Spain which has been a disaster and the USA, which is run by an insane narcissist who has been in denial about CV-19 from the start.

This is utterly, utterly unforgivable. There will be a f**king reckoning to be had about this when it is over.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1387 on April 01, 2020, 04:19:51 PM by Copps is Magic »
One reason countries such as the US, Spain and UK might be fairing slightly worse is the geographical concentration in the large cities: London, New York, Madrid. There has been highly concentrated geographical spikes in most countries (here it was a region known as Brabant), in Italy we are obviouly leanring place names most of us didn't really know before. It seems likely to me the virus was taking hold in those cities much quicker than we realised - and the case of US, UK, and Spain, big cities.

I think I read a few days ago that 33% of UK deaths are in London when it had only 13% of the population (someone correct me if I am wrong/updated figures)

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1388 on April 01, 2020, 04:25:02 PM by Copps is Magic »
Just watched something on Channel 4 news. Care home staff have to wait before they have a 'suspected' covid-19 before they can get tested. That to me is madness.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1389 on April 01, 2020, 04:27:15 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Could be, but what about Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore? Seems clear that the first order issue is that they took it seriously and got into serious suppression mode very quickly, while the countries in the West were caught unprepared.

foxbat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1390 on April 01, 2020, 04:28:45 PM by foxbat »
some pretty big cities in Germany  . Seoul in S  Korea has 9 million. Their governments,  however , are  not clown cars unfit for purpose,  run by a pantomime clown in chief.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1391 on April 01, 2020, 04:31:49 PM by big fat yorkshire pudding »
some pretty big cities in Germany  . Seoul in S  Korea has 9 million. Their governments,  however , are  not clown cars unfit for purpose,  run by a pantomime clown in chief.

Germany are behind us but following a similar trend albeit a bit behind us.

The stats hard to follow though as relies on full transparency and consistency which just isnt there.

Do we really think China got through this as lightly as claimed.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1392 on April 01, 2020, 04:34:33 PM by Copps is Magic »
I am not saying those cities could not have taken tougher/quicker action. in fact, they should have. Just saying theres a chance figures coming through now could reflect past history of 3/4 weeks ago when a large amount of people were still going about their daily business. The question of why those cities and not others is a bit more difficult to answer, but there is a nuanced geography to the spread.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1393 on April 01, 2020, 04:36:36 PM by River Don »
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have also been very keen on testing and then following trails back to other potential infections.

It was something that was most effective in controlling the SARS outbreak and they have learned the lessons of that experience.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1394 on April 01, 2020, 04:38:54 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
some pretty big cities in Germany  . Seoul in S  Korea has 9 million. Their governments,  however , are  not clown cars unfit for purpose,  run by a pantomime clown in chief.

Germany are behind us but following a similar trend albeit a bit behind us.

The stats hard to follow though as relies on full transparency and consistency which just isnt there.

Do we really think China got through this as lightly as claimed.

Why shouldn't they have done so? South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore all did.

The common denominator there is that they all had the searing experience of SARS 18 years ago.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1395 on April 01, 2020, 04:41:43 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Beat me to it RD.

There is a lot of unintended casual superiority going on in people questioning whether we can trust the China figures. I've been guilty of it myself, but looking again at the facts as they stand, there is nothing to support that opinion. And there is a lot of very much intended re-directing of anger in their direction by certain right wing politicians and journalists who are clearing the ground for the blame game.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1396 on April 01, 2020, 04:44:43 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1245361818937196545

Sweet f**king Jesus. Ten weeks they have had to get their shit together.

silent majority

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1397 on April 01, 2020, 04:47:33 PM by silent majority »
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore have also been very keen on testing and then following trails back to other potential infections.

It was something that was most effective in controlling the SARS outbreak and they have learned the lessons of that experience.

Japan hasn't tested widely. They've tested less than we have.


River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1398 on April 01, 2020, 04:53:57 PM by River Don »
Ah, I wasn't sure about Japan.

I know it has been a priority in many parts of SE Asia though.

adamtherover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1399 on April 01, 2020, 06:10:05 PM by adamtherover »
some pretty big cities in Germany  . Seoul in S  Korea has 9 million. Their governments,  however , are  not clown cars unfit for purpose,  run by a pantomime clown in chief.

Germany are behind us but following a similar trend albeit a bit behind us.

The stats hard to follow though as relies on full transparency and consistency which just isnt there.

Do we really think China got through this as lightly as claimed.
in the early days did anyone see that image of what was estimated to be sulphur cloud over wuhan. With the guess being the cremarorians working over time?  All unfounded of course, but you never know..

Colemans Left Hook

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1400 on April 01, 2020, 06:51:56 PM by Colemans Left Hook »
some pretty big cities in Germany  . Seoul in S  Korea has 9 million. Their governments,  however , are  not clown cars unfit for purpose,  run by a pantomime clown in chief.

Germany are behind us but following a similar trend albeit a bit behind us.

The stats hard to follow though as relies on full transparency and consistency which just isnt there.

Do we really think China got through this as lightly as claimed.
in the early days did anyone see that image of what was estimated to be sulphur cloud over wuhan. With the guess being the cremarorians working over time?  All unfounded of course, but you never know..
https://www.france24.com/en/20200331-stacks-of-urns-in-wuhan-raise-doubts-about-china-s-official-virus-toll

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1401 on April 01, 2020, 07:16:18 PM by wilts rover »
Albie's post above is worth rereading in light of this:

At the presser today Sharma was unable to answer the question (from the Financial Times journalist) if you are not doing mass testing of the public - what is the exit strategy for ending the lockdown?

Unless someone can correct me this can only mean one of two outcomes:

1) the government is totally incompetent and doesn't have a plan

2) herd immunity is still the policy - upto when a vaccine is available next year

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1402 on April 01, 2020, 07:23:23 PM by Copps is Magic »
More stats. This data set estimates that only 7.5% of symptomatic cases in the UK are reported. Meaning there is just shy of 400k symptomatic cases in the UK in total. Does not include asymptomatic cases.


wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1404 on April 01, 2020, 07:58:27 PM by wilts rover »
Jeepers - not all hospitals with covid-19 deaths are having these reported in official stats!

https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1245395095190474752

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1405 on April 01, 2020, 08:14:44 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
So today, just a few days after the Deputy CMO stood at the Downing Street lectern and said testing wasn't important, the Business Secretary stood there today and said that it's is the Govt's "top priority".

If it is the top priority now,why wasn't it last week?

And why wasn't it 6 weeks ago when it was clear that we were heading towards a pandemic?

Or 10 weeks ago when the CMO told Cabinet there was a distinct chance of a pandemic developing.

Yesterday, we finally managed to hit 10,000 tests. We were told that by the end of the month that will be up to 25,000. So, in a month's time, when the peak of this first wave has hopefully passed, we will be doing 35% of the tests that Germany is doing today.

And we are told that mass testing will be the key to allowing us to start relaxing the lockdown.

But.

There are 65-70million people in the country. At 25,000 tests per day, it would take 7 years and 7 months to test everyone in the country.

Meanwhile, as we head into the peak of this first wave, we are currently testing 0.3% of NHS workers each day. And tens of thousands are off work because they, or their housemates/family have symptoms. Most of those will not actually be CV-19 but we don't know which because we are not testing them.

So, as we go into the peak, the NHS will have many thousands fewer staff than should be at work. And without doubt, people will die because of this.

What in the name of f**k is this Govt doing? And what in the name of holy f**k was it doing 2 months ago when it should have been preparing for this?

foxbat

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1406 on April 01, 2020, 08:55:14 PM by foxbat »
When you think it is a good laugh to vote for a pantomime clown, you , unfortunately , get a clown car government.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1407 on April 01, 2020, 09:58:23 PM by albie »
Apparently testing of NHS staff has been rationed, until relaxed now;
https://twitter.com/TheProleStar/status/1245387350861062145/photo/1

I don't remember the daily briefings pointing this out.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1408 on April 01, 2020, 10:07:10 PM by SydneyRover »
It looks like the collation and reporting of statistics is all over the place:

''But the figures do not provide a precise picture of the deaths within 24 hours, as a number of deaths announced in Wednesday’s figures occurred earlier in March''

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/01/ventilators-may-be-taken-from-stable-coronavirus-patients-for-healthier-ones-bma-says

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1409 on April 01, 2020, 10:12:14 PM by SydneyRover »
''People in care homes in Hove, East Sussex and south Wales are among those who have had “do not attempt resuscitation” (DNAR) notices applied to their care plans during the coronavirus outbreak without proper consultation with them or their families, MPs and medical unions fear''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/uk-healthcare-regulator-brands-resuscitation-strategy-unacceptable

added:

“If government doesn’t start testing care home workers in a matter of days, it is knowingly allowing people in care homes to get infected and die,” he said. “Rather than preventing harm, our system is actually infecting them. This is something that is going to haunt our country.”
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 10:14:18 PM by SydneyRover »