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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 535333 times)

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River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #870 on March 21, 2020, 01:52:45 pm by River Don »
Footage of Youths Looting and fighting at London supermarkets.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-youths-looting-fighting-supermarkets-london-paris

It's a Zero hedge article, so you know but the footage looks real.

RD.
Have a look at who wrote that piece and ask if you really want to be circulating articles by a Kitson like Paul Joseph Watson.

The name means nothing to me. The lady on the check out in our local Aldi said there was some trouble in the store last Thursday, pushing and shoving in the aisles mainly. Someone threw a tin of beans at the manager, they have a security guard on the door now.

I caught a gag on the radio that made me smile. At least with the Coronavirus emergency Boris Johnson has got what he always wanted. His own nightly TV Show.



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #871 on March 21, 2020, 02:06:48 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
He's a t**t. Very intelligent lad from Sheffield who made his name peddling alt right conspiracy shite on Breitbart and the utterly batshit InfoWars alongside that (literally) insane alt-right megastar Alex Jones.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Joseph_Watson

Fits in perfectly with the idea that Zero Hedge is Kremlin psy-ops.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 02:10:02 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #872 on March 21, 2020, 03:00:25 pm by River Don »
The Guardian is saying the London hospitals are already overstrected this week. Reports of operating theatres being converted to ICU units, many people already on ventilators.

This thing is going to create carnage in the National Health Service. It will overwhelm any health service but it is really going to expose the lack of investment in the NHS in recent decades.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #873 on March 21, 2020, 03:08:54 pm by bpoolrover »
While your probably right I still don’t think you could be prepared for something like this no matter what the investment

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #874 on March 21, 2020, 03:40:13 pm by Copps is Magic »
In mine and your circles, bpool, this is something absolutely new and unprecedented. In the circles of epidemiologists, virologists and health officials of all descriptions, this is not something unexpected or something that couldn't have been planned for and invested in.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #875 on March 21, 2020, 03:43:43 pm by River Don »
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #876 on March 21, 2020, 03:47:11 pm by bpoolrover »
In mine and your circles, bpool, this is something absolutely new and unprecedented. In the circles of epidemiologists, virologists and health officials of all descriptions, this is not something unexpected or something that couldn't have been planned for and invested in.
it could have been planned better for I agree just not sure to this level

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #877 on March 21, 2020, 04:06:03 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
In mine and your circles, bpool, this is something absolutely new and unprecedented. In the circles of epidemiologists, virologists and health officials of all descriptions, this is not something unexpected or something that couldn't have been planned for and invested in.

It is almost beyond belief that the lack of ventilators was flagged up by PHE in 2016 as the No1 vulnerability in a pandemic, and it then took us 7-8 weeks after China locked down to start addressing this.

Many, many people are going to die unnecessarily because of that staggering incompetent complacency.

DonnyOsmond

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #878 on March 21, 2020, 04:42:15 pm by DonnyOsmond »
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

ARE YOU LABOUR IN DISGUISE?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #879 on March 21, 2020, 04:58:24 pm by River Don »
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

ARE YOU LABOUR IN DISGUISE?

I'm not in disguise, I have been known to vote Labour, not Corbyn but I did vote for Blair and I've never voted Tory.

And I do think the NHS is the most efficient and effective way of delivering healthcare. I would be quite happy if all those private hospitals were amalgamated into the NHS when all this finally begins to subside.

DonnyOsmond

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #880 on March 21, 2020, 05:02:41 pm by DonnyOsmond »
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

ARE YOU LABOUR IN DISGUISE?

I'm not in disguise, I have been known to vote Labour, not Corbyn but I did vote for Blair and I've never voted Tory.

And I do think the NHS is the most efficient and effective way of delivering healthcare. I would be quite happy if all those private hospitals were amalgamated into the NHS when all this finally begins to subside.

Not you personally I mean the Tories currently.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #881 on March 21, 2020, 05:30:34 pm by wilts rover »
While your probably right I still don’t think you could be prepared for something like this no matter what the investment

That is the job of government - to be prepared to protect the population in case of an emergency.

In 2016 they actually did a 3 day exercise to see what would happen if there was a pandemic outbreak in the UK. It showed there were not enough ventilators or mortuary places - and what was the government's response to this - more austerity.

You fail to plan, you plan to fail

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/03/government-documents-show-no-planning-ventilators-event-pandemic

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #882 on March 21, 2020, 05:37:27 pm by River Don »
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.

ARE YOU LABOUR IN DISGUISE?

I'm not in disguise, I have been known to vote Labour, not Corbyn but I did vote for Blair and I've never voted Tory.

And I do think the NHS is the most efficient and effective way of delivering healthcare. I would be quite happy if all those private hospitals were amalgamated into the NHS when all this finally begins to subside.

Not you personally I mean the Tories currently.

Oh right. I see what you mean.

I don't think they have any option, if it were left to the market the death toll would be far greater.  I expect this thing will hit the United States harder than the UK, purely because of the nature of their healthcare system.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 06:12:32 pm by River Don »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #883 on March 21, 2020, 05:41:56 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
The USA would be stupid not to take hospitals under central control for the duration.

Otherwise, they are going to learn a very, very hard lesson about the vulnerability of leaving hospital managers answerable only to shareholders.

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #884 on March 21, 2020, 05:55:06 pm by ravenrover »
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.
Are the NHS having to pay the private sector for the use pf their facilities and medical staff?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #885 on March 21, 2020, 06:11:39 pm by River Don »
Latest news is the NHS is effectively taking over all independent hospitals for the duration. It will increase capacity by an extra 8,000 beds and 1,200 more ventilators.

That's a very good move.
Are the NHS having to pay the private sector for the use pf their facilities and medical staff?

Yes. At cost, though.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #886 on March 21, 2020, 07:55:46 pm by IDM »
That will be mitigated somewhat by not having to fund non critical operations and treatments perhaps.

BigH

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #887 on March 21, 2020, 08:04:35 pm by BigH »
Hound, sorry should have explained. Simple temperature testing.

Africa, for all its faults, has some idea and experience on how to try and manage these kind of situations.

We, on the other hand, seem to be caught like rabbits in the headlights.
I assume she will be going into self isolation
Staying, confined to home for at least 14 days (without visitors) as a precaution; yes.

However, not currently displaying any symptoms so not self-isolating.
so in that scenario are you and everyone else in your household staying in for 14 days?
No, because no one in our household is displaying any symptoms. If any of us started to then it would, of course, be an immediate 14-day lock down.

The precaution is because my daughter was on a 12 hr flight and wasn't in any way, shape or form tested when she re-entered the UK.

Raven, we seem to have strayed from my earlier point.

Testing.

The authorities on pandemics have stressed the importance of this at every end and turn. Yet, as a country we are playing catch up and at major entry points into our country it's still not happening.

When, in years to come, the inevitable public enquiry is held into this pandemic's effects in the UK, expect this to be one of the key areas of scrutiny. In my view the lack of testing in this country will be seen to be an error of Chernobyl proportions.

« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 08:34:50 pm by BigH »

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #888 on March 21, 2020, 08:54:50 pm by wilts rover »
If you are at all concerned about how the current mortality rate matches the predicted rate and what that means for the days/weeks to come I advise you not to view this tweet:

https://twitter.com/GarethHawkinsLG/status/1241439135186944007

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #889 on March 21, 2020, 09:30:38 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
That is a highly simplistic model. I keep saying, anyone who is doing ANY modelling based on confirmed cases is wasting their time, because it is meaningless data.

Plus, he is assuming 3% of the confirmed cases die each day. No allowance for the time to mortality.

And he's choosing an arbitrary mortality rate of 3%.

What he is doing, is finding values within that (incorrect) causal model that give him outputs that reasonably match data over a limited time set.

Then he is extrapolating that outside the time set.

He'd get very low marks in any decent science/engineering undergraduate course for that.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #890 on March 21, 2020, 09:39:45 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Given the uncertainty in so many if the input parameters (actual infection numbers, actual mortality rate, time from infection to death) it's next to impossible for an amateur to develop a causally-based predictive model.

Make far more sense to look at the trends of countries who have gone ahead of us.

Here, we went through 100 deaths 3 days ago. So this suggests we will hit 1000 total deaths by the middle of next week and 5000 in a fortnight.

Unless our lockdown is as successful as China's...

« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 09:43:00 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #891 on March 21, 2020, 09:47:23 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
But then.

Here's that graph on a log axis. I've just shown that to a colleague. His reaction matched mine. The Chinese data looks too good to be true. It is so smooth. Utterly unlike the European data, where you get random spikes and troughs in the deaths each day.



BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #892 on March 22, 2020, 01:00:08 am by BillyStubbsTears »
This should be required reading for everyone in the world

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It's by an engineer rather than an epidemiologist, but he understands the concepts.

It starts of in the most terrifying apocalyptic terms. Which we need to hear. Because we have just days and weeks to stop this becoming a catastrophe.

But it ends with rays of hope.

We CAN survive this. We CAN do so without losing too many loved ones or suffering unacceptable economic damage. But we need to act.  Now. And be a lot smarter in our response.

Read it. It is vitally important that we all take this on board.

turnbull for england

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #893 on March 22, 2020, 10:14:09 am by turnbull for england »
Got to be said I've changed plans after reading this. Was going fo lr decent bike ride, on my own won't see a soul so no issues there, but always risk of crashing  and however small it's a risk I shouldn't take at minute

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #894 on March 22, 2020, 11:09:16 am by BillyStubbsTears »
This is what a proper epidemiology model looks like by the way.

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #895 on March 22, 2020, 11:38:17 am by River Don »
Looking at the charts and seeing how it's really now begun to detonate in Italy, I now think the wisest thing to do would be to implement a full Wuhan style lockdown today.

We very urgently need to do something to slow the numbers going into hospitals.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #896 on March 22, 2020, 12:14:18 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
RD.
Of course. It's a no-brainer.

We are at the tipping point NOW.

We CAN get this under control faster than Italy. But we have to crack down NOW!

Instead, we have zero f**king leadership. No-one enforcing social distancing. Just that clown of a PM waving his arms about, suggesting that we should take it seriously, then gurning gormlessly and saying he is going to visit his mum for Mother's Day.

And THIS is what it results in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #897 on March 22, 2020, 12:23:10 pm by River Don »
Reports that the East Coast seaside towns are seeing greater numbers than expected too.

This bit of sunny weather is encouraging people to treat it as a little holiday break. They need to clamp down now, it's obvious.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #898 on March 22, 2020, 12:30:35 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
It is f**king insane.

No exaggeration. This is going to result in thousands of extra deaths. This is going to push the NHS very close to breaking point in a couple of weeks time, when the infections picked up today turn into ICU cases.

We KNOW this from the examples of Italy and China. It is beyond belief that we are allowing this. Utterly bereft of f**king leadership.

Dutch Uncle

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #899 on March 22, 2020, 01:11:18 pm by Dutch Uncle »
This should be required reading for everyone in the world

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It's by an engineer rather than an epidemiologist, but he understands the concepts.

It starts of in the most terrifying apocalyptic terms. Which we need to hear. Because we have just days and weeks to stop this becoming a catastrophe.

But it ends with rays of hope.

We CAN survive this. We CAN do so without losing too many loved ones or suffering unacceptable economic damage. But we need to act.  Now. And be a lot smarter in our response.

Read it. It is vitally important that we all take this on board.

Excellent article and approach

Chart 16 in the link is a superb use of presenting results of operational analysis for decision makers

Edit: And Epidemiologists and Economic analysts should be able to model and estimate figures to fill in the chart. As I said in another thread the important thing is to know costs and benefits relative of an action relative to others, rather than in exact/predictive terms. Then we need to be able to track progress and IMHO that all depends on whether we test enough.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 05:16:53 pm by Dutch Uncle »

 

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