Coronavirus

[The Red Baron]

Apologies if someone has already posted a link to this site.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

[River Don]

The new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052495/coronavirus-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say

[drfchound]

I see that the people confined to the hotel in Tenerife are complaining about the lack of good food they have access to.
One woman phoned the BBC and said that for breakfast the hotel gave them jam on toast, for lunch it was cheese on toast and in the evening it was peanut butter on toast.
In its defence a hotel spokesman said that was the only food they could get under the guest room doors.

I think that should be the 'Dark Humour' thread I posted earlier.

Hmmmm, maybe but it is corona virus related too.

[Copps is Magic]

BBC reporting 14% of people with Corona in China become re-infected. Now thats a worrying one.

Buried deep in the news is evidence from China now that those reinfected are not virulent apparently.

But also a dog has the virus also.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The way they have dealt with those cases in the Tenerife hotel seems very illogical to me.

It's been widely reported that people are infectious before symptoms emerge. But they've let people leave the hotel if the arrived after the originally infected Italian left.

Which seems barmy. People who were there when the Italian was could have been infected by them but not show symptoms. They could then have infected later arrivers, who have now been allowed to leave because they themselves are showing no symptoms. Sounds like a recipe for spreading it to me.

[River Don]

The PM has called an urgent Cobra meeting... For Monday.

Not really taking it seriously is he?

[drfchound]

Will Grant McCann be going?

[RobTheRover]

I'm puzzled over the RFU's decision to cancel the Ireland v Italy match without any ban then materialising on fans travelling.  There will be 10,000 Italians in Dublin on the lash.  And we know that rugby is a game most popular in Northern Italy, so guess where these fans will mostly be coming from.

[The Red Baron]

As the ban on the game was initiated by the Irish Government rather than the Irish RFU, I guess there will be plans to turn back anyone arriving from Italy. Or does that require too much joined-up thinking?

[Ldr]

Only surprise for me is that Foxbat hasn't claimed it's all because of Brexit yet

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wow. I see the Dow Jones and the FTSE 100 are both down 13% on the week. That is once-a-decade territory.

Now I get why Trump was ranting about the coronavirus not being his fault earlier this week. He rambled on about it being fake news and saying that people should buy shares on the dip. He knows that the stock market is at the end of a long bull market and if this tips into a big rout and possible recession, he's toast in November. And then prosecuted in December, once he's lost the ability to protect himself.

[River Don]

Probably also why Trump was so keen to give Mike Pence complete responsibility for the Coronavirus situation in the States.

He's a great guy, Mike.

[River Don]

It's more than once in a decade territory BST, markets have never before fallen so fast. Not even at the start of the Great Depression.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's not really right RD. It is if you're taking in points terms, but that's not fair. Because the stock markets are worth so much more these days. So you have to look at the percentage fall to be fair.

On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow Jones fell 22% in ONE DAY!

But it does feel like this is big stuff. The Dow Jones has been going through an almost non-stop climb for 11 years. It looks to be hugely over-valued by historical comparisons of sensible average growth. Back in the early 2000s the stock market was massively overvalued due to the dot com bubble. Investors were already twitchy and expecting a fall. It really came after the shock of 9/11. I wonder if Coronavirus might be the catalyst this time.

Not quite a perfect analogy as the US was already in recession when 9/11 happened, but the fall in the DJ over the next few months extended the recession badly hampered what became known as a jobless recovery. The USA isn't in recession right now, but economic growth has been slowing. This panic on the stock market and the effects of coronavirus could easily tip that into outright recession.

[River Don]

Fair enough BST.

Still extraordinary though. What on earth can they do about it? No amount of interest rate cuts and QE is going to get sick and fearful people back to work.

All in all it is very worrying.

[River Don]

Well... I've seen enough.

First thing tomorrow I'm off to Aldi to stock up on dried and tinned food and enough frozen stuff to pack the freezer. And a load of toilet roll, cleaners and disinfectant.

Panic? More like a sensible precaution I think. If there is no problem it will all get used eventually.

[BigH]

That's not really right RD. It is if you're taking in points terms, but that's not fair. Because the stock markets are worth so much more these days. So you have to look at the percentage fall to be fair.

On Back Monday in 1987, the Dow Jones fell 22% in ONE DAY!

But it does feel like this is big stuff. The Dow Jones has been going through an almost non-stop climb for 11 years. It looks to be hugely over-valued by historical comparisons of sensible average growth. Back in the early 2000s the stock market was massively overvalued due to the dot com bubble. Investors were already twitchy and expecting a fall. It really came after the shock of 9/11. I wonder if Coronavirus might be the catalyst this time.

Not quite a perfect analogy as the US was already in recession when 9/11 happened, but the fall in the DJ over the next few months extended the recession badly hampered what became known as a jobless recovery. The USA isn't in recession right now, but economic growth has been slowing. This panic on the stock market and the effects of coronavirus could easily tip that into outright recession.

Time for a bit of perspective. The stock markets are back to where they were last October so it's hardly as if we're in apocalyptic territory (yet!).

China needs to get GDP growth back to 5%+ (from 4.2% at present) which is why they've taken the actions they have. God, how we'd die for growth like that. But for China it means that the state won't have to intervene to prop up SME lending which would otherwise mean ditching US treasuries which could potentially undermine the US economy.

There's a political element here. If borders end up getting closed then that could make a bad problem worse with trade flows being stopped and trade price inflation as a result. Now that really would hit share prices.

[River Don]

China isn't getting back to anything soon. Their economy has all but ground to a halt.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

That's not really right RD. It is if you're taking in points terms, but that's not fair. Because the stock markets are worth so much more these days. So you have to look at the percentage fall to be fair.

On Black Monday in 1987, the Dow Jones fell 22% in ONE DAY!

But it does feel like this is big stuff. The Dow Jones has been going through an almost non-stop climb for 11 years. It looks to be hugely over-valued by historical comparisons of sensible average growth. Back in the early 2000s the stock market was massively overvalued due to the dot com bubble. Investors were already twitchy and expecting a fall. It really came after the shock of 9/11. I wonder if Coronavirus might be the catalyst this time.

Not quite a perfect analogy as the US was already in recession when 9/11 happened, but the fall in the DJ over the next few months extended the recession badly hampered what became known as a jobless recovery. The USA isn't in recession right now, but economic growth has been slowing. This panic on the stock market and the effects of coronavirus could easily tip that into outright recession.

I dont see it, I still see this as a slight overdue dip but it will quickly regain losses. A good time to buy most likely but there will be some sore investors around at the minute.

Interesting point on the infamous black monday.  Came up time and time again in economics lectures and a perfect opportunity for me to mention it's the day I was born...

[River Don]

A slight overdue dip?

Are you serious? I mean really?

The whole bloody world is being exposed to a new virus that is spreading fast and is deadly. Never mind the talk of flu. The talk of 2% deaths as if that is not high enough.

Look at it man. Just look at it.

[River Don]

Sometimes I think I'm going mad.

People.

[Sandy Lane]

This whole thing is awful. 

Here in the US we are woefully unprepared. I don’t want to get started, but here is a quick recap.  Trump has now rehired the CDC officials he had gutted from his administration back in 2018, so finally we have some education being provided. But we learned yesterday that any updates from them need to be cleared through VP Pence - so we are unsure whether it will be a watered down version. From the outset Trump has downplayed our cases and initially refused to listen to experts on how to handle ppl returning from affected areas so the California cases were bungled.

Imho If he stepped up to the crisis, put a plan in place, let medical professionals speak freely and showed leadership, we and our financial markets, would be in much better shape. Sadly I heard today that the markets this week are as bad as they were in the 2008 financial crisis.  There has been a lot of criticism of his handling of this from both dems and republicans (thankfully), so hopefully he steps up soon...

It’s also sad to see that Italy has been hit so hard, and my family has cancelled their annual trip. Their economy is going to take a huge hit, but I hope they continue to test and report accurately.  ** Rob, I did read that the English rugby team will be playing against Italy in Rome on the 14th unless there are updates I missed. **

Overall, from what I’ve read I fear this may be going the way of the 1918 Spanish flu which killed millions of people worldwide.  But If there is a silver lining it’s that children seem to be unaffected by this covid-19 virus.  Fingers crossed for all.

Thanks for the above links.  I found them very interesting and helpful, particularly for Italy’s coronavirus numbers.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

A slight overdue dip?

Are you serious? I mean really?

The whole bloody world is being exposed to a new virus that is spreading fast and is deadly. Never mind the talk of flu. The talk of 2% deaths as if that is not high enough.

Look at it man. Just look at it.

Erm I wasnt talking about the virus?

[Filo]

For trying to contain the virus, surely there are empty buildings all over the Country that the Government could requisition to be used as isolation centres

[selby]

  A good time to buy real shares , and short selective shares, most likely to buy as real share at the bottom.

[ravenrover]

For trying to contain the virus, surely there are empty buildings all over the Country that the Government could requisition to be used as isolation centres

Who do you suggest would care for these people in all these empty buildings?

[wilts rover]

Good news on the virus protection front.

Matt Hancock says there is no need to shut down schools, cancel flights, large gatherings, sporting events or mass transits systems. Just sing God Save the Queen* and it will go away. Magic, thanks Matt! We will soon see who the unpatriotic ones are...

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1234045151883997184

*He did not make it clear if this will work with both versions so I guess you takes your choice.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not the most convincing performance was it? Sat there twisting his finger while he spoke, and grinding his teeth while he listened.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Losing the battle to contain it, I think.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51697991

[Filo]

For trying to contain the virus, surely there are empty buildings all over the Country that the Government could requisition to be used as isolation centres

Who do you suggest would care for these people in all these empty buildings?

The 50k new nurses 🤪