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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860982 times)

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Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #270 on March 10, 2020, 07:25:36 pm by Copps is Magic »
That is true, of course, but they estimate 99% of active cases in South Korea are mild, so in reality the mortality rate will broadly remain the same.



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #271 on March 10, 2020, 08:09:49 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
WHO figures seems to suggest the number of daily new cases globally has stabalised over the last 4/5 days.

Yes, but that includes China, where the cases have dropped dramatically. Look at the daily increase outside China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-dayly-outchina

Even that is a bit optimistic because it includes a big drop in new case from South Korea.

The increases in France, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, Norway and Denmark are a big concern.

Then there's the USA where they are hardly testing at all and have still got big increases,which suggests there are a lot of undiagnosed cases over there.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2020, 09:06:47 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #272 on March 10, 2020, 09:09:15 pm by Nudga »
Not heard anything about people getting the virus but are now well and fully recovered.
Just seem more interested in new cases which keeps the figures high.

Funny that.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #273 on March 10, 2020, 09:24:06 pm by wilts rover »
Here is the data for active cases mapped as to yesterday. Make your own conclusions

https://twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237119688578138112

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #274 on March 10, 2020, 09:57:18 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Nudga.

Here you go.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Remember, that's only those who have been diagnosed and recovered. The real number is probably 5-10 times that.

But that would still make the fatality rate 1% of all those who get infected, which is frighteningly high.

MachoMadness

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #275 on March 10, 2020, 10:25:29 pm by MachoMadness »
https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

Worth taking 15 minutes to watch. Just. Take. Precautions.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #276 on March 10, 2020, 11:20:46 pm by albie »
Nadine Dorries tests positive for the virus;
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/nadine-dorries-becomes-uks-first-mp-diagnosed-coronavirus-12379100/?ITO=squid&ito=newsnow-feed

Tracing contacts is going to be fun.
HoC to self-isolate?

Glyn_Wigley

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #277 on March 10, 2020, 11:59:05 pm by Glyn_Wigley »
Nadine Dorries tests positive for the virus;
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/nadine-dorries-becomes-uks-first-mp-diagnosed-coronavirus-12379100/?ITO=squid&ito=newsnow-feed

Tracing contacts is going to be fun.
HoC to self-isolate?

I bet she doesn't use the NHS.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #278 on March 11, 2020, 12:51:46 am by BillyStubbsTears »
It's slowly emerging what a problem this virus is for the American system.

1) They have zero central control and co-ordination over their health care system. The hospitals are responsible to their shareholders when what you want now is someone sitting in Govt shouting "You! Stop doing hip replacements for 6 months and get some f**king ICU beds ready."

2) Americans at the moment are personally liable to pay for Coronavirus tests. Their insurance may cover it, but many insurance policies have deductibles - like the excess on your car insurance. So you need to be keeping tabs on the problem, but you're relying on folk to pay for that themselves.

3) THIRTY NINE states have no sick pay provisions.

So who is going to:

a) pay for a test, then

b) self isolate with no sick pay?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-us-canada-51803890

NickDRFC

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #279 on March 11, 2020, 07:09:06 am by NickDRFC »
I see tonight’s Man City vs Arsenal game has been postponed as the now-diagnosed Olympiakos chairman had met some Arsenal players at the end of February. Yet tomorrow Wolves are still being told to travel to...Olympiakos. I know it’s different governing bodies making the call but the inconsistency is baffling.

The Olympiakos chairman is also in charge at Forest, and Arsenal have played Portsmouth in the FA Cup since then. I except the dominoes to start falling pretty quickly now...
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 07:44:56 am by NickDRFC »

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #280 on March 11, 2020, 09:35:27 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Nadine Dorries tests positive for the virus;
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/10/nadine-dorries-becomes-uks-first-mp-diagnosed-coronavirus-12379100/?ITO=squid&ito=newsnow-feed

Tracing contacts is going to be fun.
HoC to self-isolate?

I bet she doesn't use the NHS.

As a former NHS nurse I suspect she probably does.....

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #281 on March 11, 2020, 10:55:08 am by BillyStubbsTears »
What is it they say about banks and insurance companies? They are like a man who sells you an umbrella when it is sunny and takes it away when the rain starts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51826295

My mother and her husband paid a deposit a few months ago for a holiday to Portugal in May. They really don't want to take the holiday now because he is not massively well, he's 80 and is clearly in the biggest threat group. It's is highly likely that travel won't be possible by then anyway, and that they would get refunded. But they have to pay the balance of the holiday cost in a couple of days. If they don't pay it, they lose their deposit. If they do pay it, they are at the mercy of the Govt announcing that travel is banned, thereby kicking in their insurance. If that doesn't happen and they choose not to go because of his condition, they've lost the entire amount.

It's an impossible situation for them, and I'm sure it's being played out hundreds of thousands of times in other homes.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #282 on March 11, 2020, 11:27:35 am by albie »
As Dorries has been in contact with numerous people, in and out of government, then surely her contacts need to self isolate.

Just on a precautionary basis, that would include Johnson and Hancock.
About time these tosspots did what others are being urged to do, in the public good.

Colemans Left Hook

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #283 on March 11, 2020, 12:09:12 pm by Colemans Left Hook »
is it me or are Russia not giving out any figures on this virus.?

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #284 on March 11, 2020, 12:18:34 pm by albie »
According to the Evening Standard,

"Public Health England said it had assessed the risk of Ms Dorries’ individual close contacts and only those with symptoms needed to self-isolate."

This makes no sense at all.
By the time symptoms show it is too late, and the infection could have been passed on to others.

Not sure if this is the Evening Standard being economical with the truth...I can't believe PHE would say this!

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #285 on March 11, 2020, 12:20:29 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Of course they aren't giving correct data.

Neither are Turkey nor Saudi Arabia.

(Trump is desperate for widespread testing not to occur too - he is obsessed with "the numbers" because he knows it will do for him if there is a mass outbreak and the economy tanks. So his preference is for people not to know the extent of the outbreak for as long as possible.)

The leaders of those countries all have one thing in common. They've bullshitted their followers into believing that they are Strong Men who can protect the people.

This is cards on the table time now. We will see what they are actually made of. If they mismanage this and people get angry, it is not going to be pretty.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 12:30:16 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #286 on March 11, 2020, 12:24:08 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
There's also a little thing about our numbers that doesn't ring true.

Italy says 10% of diagnosed cases have required hospitalisation. We have 400 cases so that would be 40. But we haven't yet had a single case reported as serious or critical. And yet, 6 infected people have died. Did they never go through a "critical" phase?

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #287 on March 11, 2020, 12:45:07 pm by IDM »
Haven’t had time to read through the whole thread but I have difficulty comprehending some things..

The main issue is the time between actually picking up the virus and being diagnosed.  Does a test show up as positive after a day, 3 days, longer.?

Surely if people are only tested when they feel unwell, then that’s too late to prevent further spread.?  By the time you’ve found the virus it’s been passed on..

Therefore can it be argued that all the potential containment measures like lockdowns or playing football matches behind closed doors are simply too late.?

Also, if we have a period of lockdown or working from home, how do we know when it’s safe to go back.?

This virus is killing people but so do other things.  Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

Let me be clear, I mean that last point on a global scale rather than any individual suffering and losing a family member because of this.

My worry is that it is already too late in this country - the virus is here and spreading faster than we can find it and stop it. 

If it had a mortality rate the same as flu, would we just let it go and work on new preventative jabs for vulnerable people.?

casperjebba

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #288 on March 11, 2020, 12:47:02 pm by casperjebba »
How qualified this writer is, I don't know. But some interesting maths nonetheless...

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Metalmicky

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The Red Baron

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #290 on March 11, 2020, 01:48:27 pm by The Red Baron »
There's also a little thing about our numbers that doesn't ring true.

Italy says 10% of diagnosed cases have required hospitalisation. We have 400 cases so that would be 40. But we haven't yet had a single case reported as serious or critical. And yet, 6 infected people have died. Did they never go through a "critical" phase?

The DoH doesn't seem to be reporting serious/ critical cases in its daily bulletin. Although yesterday I heard that approximately 20 ICU beds were currently occupied by Coronavirus patients.

Mike_F

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #291 on March 11, 2020, 01:58:51 pm by Mike_F »
Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

The issue I guess with that is because this one is so virulent, the natural course of things would lead to millions infected and tens of thousands hospitalised in a very short window therefore overwhelming healthcare provision and leading to more deaths not only from the virus but others who would miss out on treatment for other life-threatening conditions/injuries etc.

I don't doubt that this thing will spread and despite all precautions with regard to self isolation etc. the best hope we have is to flatten the curve a bit and give the NHS a fighting chance of keeping on top of the workload over a longer period of time.

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #292 on March 11, 2020, 02:08:37 pm by Metalmicky »
Just seen that the UK are apparently up 73 cases today to 456.

I see the number being tested has risen quite sharply...

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 02:45:06 pm by Metalmicky »

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #293 on March 11, 2020, 02:45:34 pm by Copps is Magic »
Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

The issue I guess with that is because this one is so virulent, the natural course of things would lead to millions infected and tens of thousands hospitalised in a very short window therefore overwhelming healthcare provision and leading to more deaths not only from the virus but others who would miss out on treatment for other life-threatening conditions/injuries etc.

I don't doubt that this thing will spread and despite all precautions with regard to self isolation etc. the best hope we have is to flatten the curve a bit and give the NHS a fighting chance of keeping on top of the workload over a longer period of time.

Also known as, if you have any mild illness (including Corona) DO NOT go to the hospital.

Another reason not to, if it turns out you don't have corona you have a high chance of actually catching it in a hospital. They have just done a randomised control test of hospital workers here in the Netherlands and 4% are infected (many would not have reported it without the random test).

One of the ways South Korea controlled the spread was by implementing 'drive-through' testing centres, avoiding the need for large amounts of people to gather in health centres.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #294 on March 11, 2020, 02:47:50 pm by Copps is Magic »
And I have just read the link MM posted above, and that is the official UK Gov advice also. The most responsible thing you can do is stay away from healthcare facilities.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #295 on March 11, 2020, 03:09:12 pm by IDM »
Just read on the bbc that Hungary is suspending all gatherings of over 100 people indoors, and over 500 outdoors, until further notice.  They have only 13 cases...

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #296 on March 11, 2020, 03:13:06 pm by Metalmicky »
Just read on the bbc that Hungary is suspending all gatherings of over 100 people indoors, and over 500 outdoors, until further notice.  They have only 13 cases...

Glad they didn't start that last week - I was in Budapest...... although to be fair we were seldom in crowds exceeding those limits.

selby

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #297 on March 11, 2020, 03:50:32 pm by selby »
Just watching interviews being conducted on Sky news in Wakefield shopping centre.
   There is a lot more people in that shopping centre than Rome.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #298 on March 11, 2020, 04:42:25 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Without wanting to get too controversial, and playing devils advocate, should we let nature take its course.?  What happens next time a similar new virus strain crops up.?  Do we shut down every time or accept that some things can’t be beaten.?

The issue I guess with that is because this one is so virulent, the natural course of things would lead to millions infected and tens of thousands hospitalised in a very short window therefore overwhelming healthcare provision and leading to more deaths not only from the virus but others who would miss out on treatment for other life-threatening conditions/injuries etc.

I don't doubt that this thing will spread and despite all precautions with regard to self isolation etc. the best hope we have is to flatten the curve a bit and give the NHS a fighting chance of keeping on top of the workload over a longer period of time.

This.

Make some broad assumptions and you can see the extent of the problem.

Let's say we are lucky and only 20% of the population get infected. That's 14 million people.

In Italy, 1 in 10 is requiring hospital treatment. That 1.4million.

Experts say that in an normal flu epidemic, 50% of the cases come in three weeks at the peak. So that would mean 700,000 needing hospital treatment over a 3 week period.

But the NHS only has 100,000 beds. For everything.

Look at it like that and you can see that doing nothing is just not an option. It would be carnage. The death rate from Coronavirus would be massively higher, because people who would survive with treatment won't get treated. And people will die of other things, like strokes and heart attacks because they won't be able to get treatment.

So we HAVE to do something to slow down the spread around the time of the peak. Get the number of cases down to lower figures and give the NHS a chance to cope.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #299 on March 11, 2020, 04:47:31 pm by IDM »
I agree BST - my post above what rhetorical in nature.

However will attempts to slow things down work, if we are already chasing the spread of the virus that has previously been undetected..?

 

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