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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 861076 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #810 on March 19, 2020, 09:40:34 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
By the way, the light blue lines on that graph are roughly the slopes of Italy's curve at various dates. It is clear that the rate of increase on a log scale is coming down quickly. Which is the aim.of the lockdown.



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #811 on March 19, 2020, 09:41:59 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Not blaming you mate. Or him. It's a fast moving issue.

What I'm saying is that, looking at the data, it's clear as day to me that we are currently pretty much exactly tracking the Italy numbers from 2 weeks back.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #812 on March 19, 2020, 09:47:03 pm by wilts rover »
Whilst the government acted reasonably in protecting capital the other day which whilst needed is the tory way , rather less has been forthcoming on those who haven't any capital to lose .

The renters  equated to low pay  , ZHC's , those laid off unpaid by their companies and obviously the people who have the virus or those in their household who have it too , those who are down to one wage so their partners can look after their school children comes in to this category .

Whilst we aren't at the point of the causes of the French Revolution just yet , something before early next week would be rather a good idea because eating cake doesn't tend to turn out well in times such as these .

I'd give that money tree another shake chancellor if I was you and it better be enough to feed the family , pay the bills and keep a roof over the head whilst not able to work for the immediate future .



We are the 6th largest economy in the world. We are (I believe) one of very few countries in Europe not to have raised the rate of Sick Pay or insititued a universal basic income for its citizens to cope during this crises. And what did the former Work and Pensions Secretary and his think-tank have to say about it:

'it will be a disincentive to work'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-update-universal-basic-income-iain-duncan-smith-a9411251.html

#voteTory

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #813 on March 19, 2020, 09:48:45 pm by wilts rover »
Not blaming you mate. Or him. It's a fast moving issue.

What I'm saying is that, looking at the data, it's clear as day to me that we are currently pretty much exactly tracking the Italy numbers from 2 weeks back.

The bad news is that was from one region - ours is already across the country. Wiltshire has just tripled (thats cases, just one death so far reported)

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #814 on March 19, 2020, 10:21:25 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Good point Wilts, but it's not a small part of Italy that was affected early on.

Lombardia, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte and Toscana have nearly half of Italy's population between them. They were all badly affected by the first week of March.

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #815 on March 19, 2020, 11:30:36 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
...Wiltshire has just tripled (thats cases, just one death so far reported)
The number of cases is almost pure fiction but somehow being swallowed by people as having relevance. We have some sense of the spread from the deaths.

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #816 on March 20, 2020, 06:51:59 am by Ldr »
One of my mates is convinced he had it over Christmas and it was here before we thought.

Anyone else have these suspicions?

My father and son had remarkably similar symptoms pre xmas and in January

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #817 on March 20, 2020, 06:55:50 am by Ldr »
Wilts.

Choosing to plot the graphs with a common datum of the date on which they hit five deaths entirely arbitrary. In fact, it's actually a relatively poor way of comparing. Because in the early stages, the deaths occur at relatively random times because there were so few. And I know that comes from Johns Hopkins Uni, but that doesn't change the argument. Even leading universities don't always make flawless calls.

If you shift our trend back 2 weeks it matches Italy astonishingly closely as the numbers get into the high 10s and more

BST, now there are enough data points have you considered plotting using SPC?

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #818 on March 20, 2020, 09:34:08 am by ravenrover »
So 2 weeks of isolation then what? I comeback to the real world and am still  in danger of catching it, or am I missing something?

DN8ROVER

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #819 on March 20, 2020, 11:22:16 am by DN8ROVER »
One of my mates is convinced he had it over Christmas and it was here before we thought.

Anyone else have these suspicions?

My father and son had remarkably similar symptoms pre xmas and in January

Same with me, it was 2 weeks before Christmas and it lasted around a week. I had to request emergency holidays from work.

auckleyflyer

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #820 on March 20, 2020, 11:37:54 am by auckleyflyer »
I had a week off work Dec not done that since 1989!! The Mrs was convinced she was drowning and had pneumonia.
Were sure we've had it as the kids all got it now and it's not hit us

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #821 on March 20, 2020, 11:46:07 am by Copps is Magic »
Remember there's dozens of other flus and covid's (edit - coronas) you could of had. Sorry to be a debbie downer, but from the DNA sequencing they are suggesting it jumped to humans very later November/Early December - for you to start showing symptom in mid december it means it had to transfer to you from China almost instantly.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 11:49:58 am by Copps is Magic »

Yargo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #822 on March 20, 2020, 12:16:27 pm by Yargo »
Ooh look when this article is dated, those fecking Anti EU'ers with their reckless cutting of standards
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21350013
RACIST

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #823 on March 20, 2020, 03:03:22 pm by Copps is Magic »
The SAGE committee in the UK are now estimating the overal mortality rate to be 0.5%-1%. This is much better news, even minor reductions in the projected severe cases can make a big difference. I can find hardly any Western country reporting deaths of people under 50, other than the odd case.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #824 on March 20, 2020, 03:17:48 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
That would be excellent news CiM. Fingers crossed.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #825 on March 20, 2020, 03:42:53 pm by albie »
Country by country animated tracker from the FT;
https://twitter.com/sdbernard/status/1240742053979598854

Shows the progression towards the peak, with a note of the measures taken.

jackthelad

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #826 on March 20, 2020, 04:10:43 pm by jackthelad »
So apparently they have been discussing potential wages for employees if we don't work.... be interesting to see what gets said.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #827 on March 20, 2020, 04:28:56 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Country by country animated tracker from the FT;
https://twitter.com/sdbernard/status/1240742053979598854

Shows the progression towards the peak, with a note of the measures taken.

Fascinating graphic, but I'm not sure I see the point any more of looking at confirm case statistics. We know that the rate of testing is wildly different in different countries, as is the targetting of testing. It seems to me to make far more sense to look at number of C-19 related deaths, which is relatively solid data.

jackthelad

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #828 on March 20, 2020, 05:29:01 pm by jackthelad »
fantastic

NickDRFC

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #829 on March 20, 2020, 05:32:48 pm by NickDRFC »
Quite a relief fund announced tonight, and for me a much firmer stance with social venues. Some unanswered questions but I think it’s a pretty strong response.

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #830 on March 20, 2020, 05:37:46 pm by Copps is Magic »
While the BBC continues to report "uncontrolled" "numbers soar" and "sharp rise" in italy, meaningless hyperbolic statements, if you look at the rate of increase of deaths it is actually slowing going down.

In the last 5 days it was an average 17.2% daily increase in deaths.
The 5 days before that it was 23.8%
The 5 days before that, 34.2%

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #831 on March 20, 2020, 06:07:35 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
While the BBC continues to report "uncontrolled" "numbers soar" and "sharp rise" in italy, meaningless hyperbolic statements, if you look at the rate of increase of deaths it is actually slowing going down.

In the last 5 days it was an average 17.2% daily increase in deaths.
The 5 days before that it was 23.8%
The 5 days before that, 34.2%

Precisely what I've been saying all week. That graph shows it.

We NEED to show where the hope is. And it IS there.


IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #833 on March 20, 2020, 06:26:37 pm by IDM »
So it seems that people who’s employer would otherwise have to temporarily lay them off, will get 80% wages from the government, via their employer getting a government grant, up to £2500 a month.?

Some of you on here are employers, yes? This is a big help.?

What I haven’t yet seen, is the step up from “strongly advising” the vulnerable groups to implement social distancing, to actual self isolation.?  That was supposed to be “in a few days” when the PM announced this on Monday.?

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #834 on March 20, 2020, 06:52:30 pm by wilts rover »
Seems to be good news for employees but what about the self-employed? They are hardly likely to self-isolate for £90 a week are they? Sunak needs to go further and quicker.

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #835 on March 20, 2020, 06:58:03 pm by Nudga »
Seems to be good news for employees but what about the self-employed? They are hardly likely to self-isolate for £90 a week are they? Sunak needs to go further and quicker.

I'll be working nights at either morrisons or tesco next week whilst trying to save my business during the day.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #836 on March 20, 2020, 07:00:10 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
So it seems that people who’s employer would otherwise have to temporarily lay them off, will get 80% wages from the government, via their employer getting a government grant, up to £2500 a month.?

Some of you on here are employers, yes? This is a big help.?

What I haven’t yet seen, is the step up from “strongly advising” the vulnerable groups to implement social distancing, to actual self isolation.?  That was supposed to be “in a few days” when the PM announced this on Monday.?

Massive help for my company. It means we'll be viable even if this lasts for a year.

I agree about the self-employed though. They have to be helped to a similar extent.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #837 on March 20, 2020, 08:24:18 pm by albie »
BST,

The link I gave also links through to the deaths data on the FT site.
If you follow through you see both the death rate comparator and the case trajectory.

Here is the graphic from Twitter;
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1241091873621643266/photo/1

Big disparity in Germany between the death figures and the known infections AT THE MOMENT.
It will be interesting how this plays out. Germany has been testing like crazy, and is well provisioned with health care capacity compared to the UK.

New release of info from the UK Government today;
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615391/coronavirus-uk-social-distancing-science-isolation-covid/

Data absent on the testing regime!
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 08:30:26 pm by albie »

rich1471

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #838 on March 20, 2020, 08:37:45 pm by rich1471 »
So it seems that people who’s employer would otherwise have to temporarily lay them off, will get 80% wages from the government, via their employer getting a government grant, up to £2500 a month.?

Some of you on here are employers, yes? This is a big help.?

What I haven’t yet seen, is the step up from “strongly advising” the vulnerable groups to implement social distancing, to actual self isolation.?  That was supposed to be “in a few days” when the PM announced this on Monday.?
this is a massive help to people i work for a company and today had to tell people they would get £30 a day for 5 days maximum pay , it was one of the worst things i have ever had to do , people i have know for years 

BigH

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #839 on March 20, 2020, 08:38:59 pm by BigH »
Teenage daughter rescued from Africa today. So grateful.

Tested as she left Rwanda (and at various travel points along the way).

Not tested as she arrived at Gatwick.

Unbelievable.

 

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