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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 105299 times)

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Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1110 on March 26, 2020, 06:48:03 PM by Bristol Red Rover »
115 new deaths reported.

113

Has a long haired semitic immigrant been employed by the NHS?

Dutch Uncle

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1111 on March 26, 2020, 07:13:17 PM by Dutch Uncle »
Would it be reasonable as a one time rough guide to add today’s and yesterday’s and divide by 2? So 115 + 28 / 2 = ca 72?

I think what they have done is give figures for an 8 hour period 'yesterday' and give figures for a 24 hour period 'today', not overlapping. So if you added them up and divided by two you would technically have the figure for only a 16 hour period.

Its a little awkward, but technically now, the number of deaths for the last day is 115 (113?), as they announced.

Thanks Copps, I had no estimate for how many hours were covered yesterday, I certainly didn’t’ realise it was as few as 8. So The last two days ca 84 and 113/5 then for trending purposes?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1112 on March 26, 2020, 07:26:35 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
That's not what I heard on R4 tonight.

They said yesterday's figure was for 12 hours and today's for 36 hours, with it returning to 24 hours tomorrow.

I've no idea if that is correct or not, but the point was made several times that to get a better idea of the trend, we should average out yesterday's and today's values. Which would give about 80 per day.

Listen from 14:45 here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000glny
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 07:28:55 PM by BillyStubbsTears »

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1113 on March 26, 2020, 07:28:57 PM by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Yesterday’s figures did not cover a full 24 hour period while we adjust to the new system. These figures comprised the period from 9am 24 March to 5pm on 24 March.

Figures issued today are recorded as of 5pm 24 March to 5pm 25 March.

Official comment above per department of social health Twitter.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 07:32:23 PM by big fat yorkshire pudding »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1114 on March 26, 2020, 08:21:34 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Ouch. So it does.

That means the last two days' figures are a bit concerning then.

And so much for Nick Watt from the BBC. Looks like he got it totally wrong.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1115 on March 26, 2020, 08:26:19 PM by wilts rover »
The tweet BFYP refers to (and thread 'explaining' it):

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1243237215511220224

For what it's worth, slighty below Italy now and compatible with France on Ed Conway's graph

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1243264292075589634/photo/1

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1116 on March 26, 2020, 08:28:45 PM by Copps is Magic »
Just watching question time ... damn... I know we aren't supposed to get political but some damning indictments on our government heard.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1117 on March 26, 2020, 08:39:00 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Wilts.

I cannot believe Conway  is still pushing that graph. It's really not helpful.

Look at our slope over the past few days. It is nothing like the other ones. That clearly shows that he's set the datum wrongly.

This is a big part of the problem with the UK media. Conway is very good on politics, but he's an English graduate. He's clearly got little idea how to deal with numbers sensibly.

Dutch Uncle

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1118 on March 26, 2020, 08:39:21 PM by Dutch Uncle »
Here's today's graph. I actually did a "Get the f**k in!" thing with my fist when today's number came out. Not quite on the level of the response when Butler scored at Charlton, but getting there.

It's getting more certain that the early social distancing that most of us started practicising a few weeks ago is paying dividends. Massive big ups to the whole country. Nothing certain yet, but if that's the case, and we don't f**k it up from here, it's looking like we might just get out of the first wave without the NHS reaching breaking point. Got to keep working at it though.



Just got a sinking feeling that Butler's goal was disallowed because during the game they were busy changing the rules about players being active in offside positions :turd:

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1119 on March 26, 2020, 09:09:35 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Dutch.

We are still much closer to the China trend than the W Europe & USA trends if you slide the traces along the time axis sensibly.

Not saying we will necessarily stay there of course.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1120 on March 26, 2020, 09:11:10 PM by wilts rover »
Wilts.

I cannot believe Conway  is still pushing that graph. It's really not helpful.

Look at our slope over the past few days. It is nothing like the other ones. That clearly shows that he's set the datum wrongly.

This is a big part of the problem with the UK media. Conway is very good on politics, but he's an English graduate. He's clearly got little idea how to deal with numbers sensibly.

Just to confirm to people this is the Economics Editor of Sky News Billy is criticising here. I dunno, I just like looking at the graphs - hoping they are going to look like Korea soon

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1121 on March 26, 2020, 09:11:50 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
This, by the way, is gobsmacking.

Bergamo is one of the worst hit cities in the world. But the deaths among those under 60 have hardly changed from pre-virus times.

https://mobile.twitter.com/FerdiGiugliano/status/1243142460668350465

(Età means "age" in Italian by the way)

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1122 on March 26, 2020, 09:12:54 PM by wilts rover »
Germany has 4 times the number of confirmed cases than the UK but half the mortality rate. Why?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-germany-has-such-a-low-covid-19-death-rate-11964051

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1123 on March 26, 2020, 09:13:07 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Wilts.

I don't care if he's the Count of Monte Cristo, that graph is absolute bobbins. I'd hit the roof if someone in my company presented data like that in a graph like that and sent it out in a report.

It is very, very silly to set the time datum as the date when the number of deaths went through a very small level. Because deaths happen with a degree of randomness and when there are few deaths, they happen at random times. That is a basic flaw in his graph, and he's been (inadvertently) misleading people for a long time with this.

If you set the datum to the day when the deaths go through, say, 100, you are reducing that error due to randomness, and you see a totally different set of trends; ones that are much clearer.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 09:19:41 PM by BillyStubbsTears »

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1124 on March 26, 2020, 09:30:23 PM by IDM »
Germany has 4 times the number of confirmed cases than the UK but half the mortality rate. Why?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-why-germany-has-such-a-low-covid-19-death-rate-11964051

More testing.?

BigH

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1125 on March 26, 2020, 09:35:47 PM by BigH »
Interesting listening for the statistically-minded among us:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/brand:b006qshd/m000gwy8

David Spiegelhalter's explanation of why the Government's original 'let rip' policy was so heavily flawed and why the UK economy will be paying the price for that screw-up for many years to come made me want to weep.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1126 on March 26, 2020, 10:00:31 PM by albie »
A note of caution on the UK death rate figures.

My understanding is that the figure given is not the actual number of deaths, but those that have been given consent to be released by the close family.

As we don't know how many are being with-held pending that consent, it makes the accuracy of the trend line difficult to know.

Why would you interrupt the consistency of the longitudinal data?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1127 on March 26, 2020, 10:44:00 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Albie.

Again, I'm quoting Nick Watt of the BBC here and he's already made me look a dick once tonight, but he was responsible for this concept in what he said on Newsnight last night and he was at pains to correct it tonight on R4.

According to him, the family consent is needed ONLY to release detailed information, like age, sex, previous health and location of the deceased. There is no family consent required to release the FACT that someone has died. He said the policy was not to release the fact of a death into the stats until the family had been informed, but that did not cause big delays in reporting, nor prevent the numbers being released.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1128 on March 26, 2020, 11:15:32 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Here's the latest graph.

We are still more or less tracking China. Maybe a bit above, but we are diverging more and more from USA/W. Europe. If the nuns at St Albans in Denaby had been more convincing when they taught us RE, I might be praying that this continues.

The thing is, not to panic as our number per day go up. They are bound to do, but they are rising at about 50-60% of the rates that the deaths per day in Italy, France and Spain were at the same points in their epidemics.

Colin C No.3

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1129 on March 26, 2020, 11:24:52 PM by Colin C No.3 »
I’m probably going to be lambasted here.

I’m ‘intrigued’ (a description probably totally inappropriate in the current context of this debate) & am truly, desperately trying to follow the graphs & links & quotes as you guys present them on the forum, whilst sat up in bed with my iPad, my better half fast asleep, after having spent yet another glorious day in the garden, painting fences, fixing leaking sheds, planting spring flowers.

But as I paint those fences it gives me time to reflect on this horrendous virus & how it has brought the best & worst out of our society & we are only yet just at ‘it’s’ very margins.

I had my letter delivered Monday telling me I was in the high risk category & should self isolate for the next 12 weeks. I’d already self isolated because part of my medication comprises of immuno suppressants. I’ll gladly self isolate until told otherwis.

So here comes the part where I will undoubtedly rankle some posters.

By all means continue with graphs, equations & quotes (because without doubt they are of value to many), but at the end of the day, whether we come through this without losing a loved one is very much in ‘the lap of the gods’.

No adequate testing kits, not enough ventilators, no proper PPE for our frontline services. We’re reliant on TIME. Time given by those who accept & adhere to social distancing in order that we might BUY the time needed by our NHS to save tens of thousands of lives.

The graphs showing possible/probable mortality rates will change on a day to day basis as another set of facts ‘causes’ curves to peak, drop, plateau.

Some may be more immune than others. I say to myself every day ‘Not you mate’. No one is immune.

Keep safe. Keep well. See you soon at the Keepmoat.



BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1130 on March 26, 2020, 11:26:19 PM by BillyStubbsTears »
Thoughts on other countries:

Italy is getting there. They have ground down the rate of growth so that the doubling time for deaths is now up to 7 days (it was two days about a fortnight ago). Only China has had the virus really take control, then contain it like that, and we should salute them for what they have managed without having any prior country in Europe to look to. But it's taking its toll. We Skyped my wife's uncle today in Emilia Romagna. He is a rock of a man. He didn't cry when his son was left permanently disabled by a hit and run driver. He didn't cry when his dad died of Alzheimers. He was fighting back the tears tonight. The authorities have been moving bodies from Bergamo to his town for burial because Bergamo is overwhelmed.

Spain might just be starting to bend the curve, but f**k me are they in trouble.

France looked like it was doing better at the weekend, but it's back in Italy territory now.

Germany - too soon to tell. There are signs that they might be breaking below the Spain/Italy/France trend and following us and China. Will be clearer by the end of the weekend.

And USA. Jesus Christ. I;ve posted the wrong data for the past few days. I hadn't spotted that it was still being updated overnight. I've corrected in now and it is terrifying. Four days ago, their deaths trend was mapping us and China. Now they are going above Italy. Since the deaths take 5-10 days to happen after infection, that means that they were coping pretty well until 10-14 days ago, and then it looks like they have lost control. I looked on FlightRadar today. There are still thousnads of flights criss-crossing America. What the f**k are they doing? This is going to be carnage over there, and in a society that has no Western European type safety net when people fall out of the bottom of society. I truly dread what might happen there over the summer. It doesn't bear thinking about.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1131 on March 27, 2020, 12:12:26 AM by River Don »
A report in the Guardian estimates that Northern England is approximately two weeks behind London. London is currently being overwhelmed by a "tsunami of cases".

The incubation of this virus seems to be between 5 days and 10 days. This means we in the North are right on the cusp of the widespread infection. There is an opportunity for us to really lockdown now. Stay at home as much as possible now. Wash hands religiously. Keep your distance from others. Wear outdoor clothes and change when you go inside.

 I would urge everyone to take every precaution now.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 12:14:41 AM by River Don »

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1132 on March 27, 2020, 12:34:18 AM by River Don »
Insanity:


President Trump said in a letter to governors today that governments should soon be ranking individual counties across the U.S. as "low, medium or high" risk for coronavirus outbreaks, in what is likely a beginning stage attempt to get the wheels of the American economy turning again.

His letter says:

“My administration is working to publish new guidelines for state and local policymakers to use in making decisions about maintaining, increasing, or relaxing social distancing and other mitigation measures they have put in place.”

....He is actually wanting to lift restrictions before the virus has even really begun to take hold.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1133 on March 27, 2020, 12:51:06 AM by BillyStubbsTears »
He is a clear and present danger to the USA. There is a mechanism for removing him, but it needs Republican party grandees to have the balls.

The alternative is 4 million Americans dead this summer and countless left destitute.

Pancho Regan

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1134 on March 27, 2020, 08:16:37 AM by Pancho Regan »
We are about to see the point when Trump's stupidity stops being funny and becomes truly dangerous.

rich1471

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1135 on March 27, 2020, 08:48:50 AM by rich1471 »
I think it has passed that point already, the guy really has lost the plot

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1136 on March 27, 2020, 11:08:49 AM by River Don »
A group of doctors have started a crowd funder to raise money for protective equipment. If you would like to contribute, this is the link.

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/masks4nhsheroes

Copps is Magic

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1137 on March 27, 2020, 11:16:38 AM by Copps is Magic »
It will get lost in the ether, but some very positive numbers from Spain announced today. Spain looked worrying for a while, but today's figures offer a glimmer of hope I feel.

ian1980

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1138 on March 27, 2020, 11:18:03 AM by ian1980 »
Spain has just announced 769 deaths in 24hrs.

ian1980

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #1139 on March 27, 2020, 11:18:26 AM by ian1980 »
Boris Johnson tests positive for COVID-19