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Author Topic: Brexit Dividend  (Read 31447 times)

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BigH

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #571 on June 26, 2022, 01:07:26 pm by BigH »
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/counting-the-cost-of-the-brexit-vote-six-years-on-rd2pns2wp

A very good summary of the economic impact of Brexit from the Sunday Times economist.

I read it and wept.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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  • Posts: 13412
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #572 on June 26, 2022, 01:40:56 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
And from the same link above .........

''Last week the chief executive of easyJet, Johan Lundgren, contradicted claims by the aviation minister Robert Courts (and Tyke) that it was “not likely” Brexit had caused staff shortages which have led to disruption at airports. Lundgren countered that 8,000 job applications from EU citizens had been rejected by his firm because candidates did not have permission to work in the UK''





You'd think those staff would have easily got jobs in the EU countries in that sector struggling to get staff wouldn't you? Or they could easily operate the planes from the non UK leg of their airline if it was such an issue (like wizzair do).  I wonder why the issue persists in Europe too then.

SydneyRover

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  • Posts: 13576
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #573 on June 26, 2022, 01:45:49 pm by SydneyRover »
And from the same link above .........

''Last week the chief executive of easyJet, Johan Lundgren, contradicted claims by the aviation minister Robert Courts (and Tyke) that it was “not likely” Brexit had caused staff shortages which have led to disruption at airports. Lundgren countered that 8,000 job applications from EU citizens had been rejected by his firm because candidates did not have permission to work in the UK''





You'd think those staff would have easily got jobs in the EU countries in that sector struggling to get staff wouldn't you? Or they could easily operate the planes from the non UK leg of their airline if it was such an issue (like wizzair do).  I wonder why the issue persists in Europe too then.

Some airlines are 'wet leasing' plane and staff in Europe.

''Legal Loophole: The UK Airlines Leasing European Aircraft To Avoid Brexit-Related Recruitment Issues''

https://simpleflying.com/uk-airlines-leasing-european-aircraft-avoid-brexit-recruitment-issues/

Not Now Kato

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  • Posts: 3034
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #574 on June 26, 2022, 04:17:31 pm by Not Now Kato »
Kato, there are some things  in your post that I agree with and I have always said that the public at large shouldn’t have been the people responsible for deciding whether we left the EU but I noticed that you didn’t reprimand wilts for mentioning “the vote” in his post that I quoted and responded to.
Maybe because he is on your side?

People should be repremanded for asking questions should they hound?

Well, what can you say...

The question to DD (in response to his question to BST about future Labour policy on trade with Europe) was about what he thinks future Labour Party policy should be. Clearly they have to have one.

Wilts, you have picked up the wrong end of the stick matey.
Read the the opening sentence of Katos volley at me and he says “the vote, as you put it”.
I was explaining to him that you had used the expression (vote) and asked him why he hadn’t jumped on you, rather than me, for calling the vote, the vote, so to speak.
I never suggested that people should be reprimanded for asking questions.

I have picked up exactly on what you wrote hound. I asked a very simple question and you asked Kato why he didn't repremand me for asking it.

If you want to argue with Kato thats between you and him, dont go dragging me into it just for the sake of it - or you will need to justify doing it.

But I am justifying it wilts.
None of my comment was aimed at you.
I simply asked Kato why he jumped on me for saying “the vote”,instead of jumping on you for saying “the vote.”
You are being very sensitive about something that doesn’t exist.

Hound, I haven’t ‘jumped’ on anyone. I simply stated what I believed should have happened given the scenario of the 2016 referendum, and the reason we are in the mess we currently are with respect to leaving the EU. It was you who asked should we honour the result of the referendum, I simply gave my view on that question - or are you suggesting I should be barred from giving my opinion?
 
I stand by my response to your question, wholeheartedly.


Kato, in my previous reply to you I said that I agreed with most of what you had written.
But then you have slightly altered the context of my post.
Your words were “it was you who asked if we should honour the result of the referendum”.
But I didn’t , I simply asked wilts that question, not everyone else, in my direct reply to him after he quoted my post.
I had earlier said that I think we have to honour the result of the referendum because there isn’t anything we can do right now to change that decision.

This is getting really silly and drawn out now.
You wrote the words below and directed them to me:

“The 'vote' as you put it”


You and I have a history on here of not getting along, probably due to you being an avid Labour supporter and me not agreeing with some of the stuff you sometimes write.
I do sometimes agree with what you write by the way.

When you wrote what you did about “the vote” part of a post of mine I had thought how odd it was that you didn’t pick up on wilts using “the vote” but chose to do so to me.

That’s it, that’s all it was.

Oh, and by the way, no I don’t think you should be barred from giving your opinion on stuff.

You have me wrong Hound, I'm not a Labour supporter.  Rather, I'm a supporter of what I believe is best for the, 'majority' - as you can't please everyone - of the people of this country.  I have particular concern for those less well off; and it is them who will suffer the worst effect of Brexit the most.  I am also an advocate of Proportional Representation as a means of achieving better representation for everyone and making each vote count.
 
At this point in time, given our First Past The Post voting system and the lack of depth of parties other than Labour and the Conservatives then I currently see Labour as the better of the two main options to better represent the people of this country.
 
The Tories have been extremely poor in everything other than the vaccine roll-out. The lies, cronyism and deceit are clear for all to see, (though it appears an awful lot of people in the country don't WANT to see it); and I have said many times that if Johnson were to walk up to some of them and kick them in the groin they'd actually thank him for doing so! The final sentence in Oliver Dowden's resignation letter is a classic example of this where he says, without qualification, "I will, as always, remain loyal to the Conservative Party".  So, without any qualification, he's actually saying that it doesn't really matter what the Party do, however corrupt it continues to be, he will always remain loyal to it.  Very 1984, Julia would be proud.
 
Then there's Russia's part in the Brexit 'Vote', (that word again!); the lack of an independent enquiry and report into the subject is very telling, as is the redacted report the Government themselves produced - particularly in light of the amount of money the Tory Party receives from wealthy Russians and the election of a Russian with links to the FSB to the House of Lords!
 
But Labour are not without their issues.  They need a clear policy, or set of policies, that will address all the failings of the Tory Party - and I see no clear sign of that at present, sadly.  They seem to be relying on highlighting the continuing gaffs and failings of Johnson in particular and the Cabinet in general to garner support.  Whilst this is highlighting the problems the country faces and can be seen as 'scoring points', it does nothing to address them.  Starmer's stance on reviewing membership of the EU in some form or other is also disheartening as any form of partnership or move to PR will be fraught with conflict, particularly with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP who are both ardent re-joiners.
 
Hope the above clears up my political leanings.

drfchound

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  • Posts: 29199
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #575 on June 26, 2022, 06:08:42 pm by drfchound »
Kato, there are some things  in your post that I agree with and I have always said that the public at large shouldn’t have been the people responsible for deciding whether we left the EU but I noticed that you didn’t reprimand wilts for mentioning “the vote” in his post that I quoted and responded to.
Maybe because he is on your side?

People should be repremanded for asking questions should they hound?

Well, what can you say...

The question to DD (in response to his question to BST about future Labour policy on trade with Europe) was about what he thinks future Labour Party policy should be. Clearly they have to have one.

Wilts, you have picked up the wrong end of the stick matey.
Read the the opening sentence of Katos volley at me and he says “the vote, as you put it”.
I was explaining to him that you had used the expression (vote) and asked him why he hadn’t jumped on you, rather than me, for calling the vote, the vote, so to speak.
I never suggested that people should be reprimanded for asking questions.

I have picked up exactly on what you wrote hound. I asked a very simple question and you asked Kato why he didn't repremand me for asking it.

If you want to argue with Kato thats between you and him, dont go dragging me into it just for the sake of it - or you will need to justify doing it.

But I am justifying it wilts.
None of my comment was aimed at you.
I simply asked Kato why he jumped on me for saying “the vote”,instead of jumping on you for saying “the vote.”
You are being very sensitive about something that doesn’t exist.

Hound, I haven’t ‘jumped’ on anyone. I simply stated what I believed should have happened given the scenario of the 2016 referendum, and the reason we are in the mess we currently are with respect to leaving the EU. It was you who asked should we honour the result of the referendum, I simply gave my view on that question - or are you suggesting I should be barred from giving my opinion?
 
I stand by my response to your question, wholeheartedly.


Kato, in my previous reply to you I said that I agreed with most of what you had written.
But then you have slightly altered the context of my post.
Your words were “it was you who asked if we should honour the result of the referendum”.
But I didn’t , I simply asked wilts that question, not everyone else, in my direct reply to him after he quoted my post.
I had earlier said that I think we have to honour the result of the referendum because there isn’t anything we can do right now to change that decision.

This is getting really silly and drawn out now.
You wrote the words below and directed them to me:

“The 'vote' as you put it”


You and I have a history on here of not getting along, probably due to you being an avid Labour supporter and me not agreeing with some of the stuff you sometimes write.
I do sometimes agree with what you write by the way.

When you wrote what you did about “the vote” part of a post of mine I had thought how odd it was that you didn’t pick up on wilts using “the vote” but chose to do so to me.

That’s it, that’s all it was.

Oh, and by the way, no I don’t think you should be barred from giving your opinion on stuff.

You have me wrong Hound, I'm not a Labour supporter.  Rather, I'm a supporter of what I believe is best for the, 'majority' - as you can't please everyone - of the people of this country.  I have particular concern for those less well off; and it is them who will suffer the worst effect of Brexit the most.  I am also an advocate of Proportional Representation as a means of achieving better representation for everyone and making each vote count.
 
At this point in time, given our First Past The Post voting system and the lack of depth of parties other than Labour and the Conservatives then I currently see Labour as the better of the two main options to better represent the people of this country.
 
The Tories have been extremely poor in everything other than the vaccine roll-out. The lies, cronyism and deceit are clear for all to see, (though it appears an awful lot of people in the country don't WANT to see it); and I have said many times that if Johnson were to walk up to some of them and kick them in the groin they'd actually thank him for doing so! The final sentence in Oliver Dowden's resignation letter is a classic example of this where he says, without qualification, "I will, as always, remain loyal to the Conservative Party".  So, without any qualification, he's actually saying that it doesn't really matter what the Party do, however corrupt it continues to be, he will always remain loyal to it.  Very 1984, Julia would be proud.
 
Then there's Russia's part in the Brexit 'Vote', (that word again!); the lack of an independent enquiry and report into the subject is very telling, as is the redacted report the Government themselves produced - particularly in light of the amount of money the Tory Party receives from wealthy Russians and the election of a Russian with links to the FSB to the House of Lords!
 
But Labour are not without their issues.  They need a clear policy, or set of policies, that will address all the failings of the Tory Party - and I see no clear sign of that at present, sadly.  They seem to be relying on highlighting the continuing gaffs and failings of Johnson in particular and the Cabinet in general to garner support.  Whilst this is highlighting the problems the country faces and can be seen as 'scoring points', it does nothing to address them.  Starmer's stance on reviewing membership of the EU in some form or other is also disheartening as any form of partnership or move to PR will be fraught with conflict, particularly with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP who are both ardent re-joiners.
 
Hope the above clears up my political leanings.

Kato, thanks for that honest and well made response to me.
You may be surprised to hear that I agree with most of that but perhaps not surprised to hear that FPTP or PR don’t enter my thoughts as I am not particularly interested in politics.
I know a bit about it but certainly don’t allow it to dominate my day as appears to be the case with some of our posters.
I am with you all the way on Johnson’s failings and think he has to go if the Conservatives want to have a chance of winning the GE, which I think is what will happen because I can’t see a split Labour support getting behind the Party in their current guise.
Just a point on Oliver Dowdens words that you highlight, I read it as him saying that he backs the Party but not Johnson.
I may be wrong of course.
Anyway, I’m glad we appear to have ended what was a daft argument and hope we can get on better in the future.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2022, 07:51:22 pm by drfchound »

Branton Red

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  • Posts: 942
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #576 on June 26, 2022, 07:21:54 pm by Branton Red »
Back a little on topic. The best way of assessing the Brexit dividend/cost is to compare UK economic performance against similar sized economies who stayed in the EU. Now European economies have fully opened up after Covid we can assess how Brexit Britain has performed comparatively over 2020-21/early 22. Here goes: -

GDP growth 1/1/20 to 31/3/22: - UK 0.7%; France 1.0%; Germany -1.0%; Italy -0.4%; Eurozone 0.5%

So following on from 2019, which showed the same trends, the UK is performing marginally better than the rest of Western Europe as a whole, marginally worse than France and fairly significantly better than Germany and Italy.

www.oecd.org/newsroom/gdp-growth-first-quarter-2022-oecd.htm


wilts rover

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #577 on June 26, 2022, 07:40:25 pm by wilts rover »
Interesting thanks Branton.

Meanwhile taking the figures back to 2016

https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/06/uk-economy-fallen-behind-eu-since-brexit

SydneyRover

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  • Posts: 13576
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #578 on June 27, 2022, 01:21:07 am by SydneyRover »
''These laws that you want changed, abolished or written, can you tell me what they are so I have an idea how far you are willing to go, you must have an idea if they are so abhorrent that you would  impoverish the UK 'to get it done' show me your list Branton, surely you had an idea when you voted for something so central to your belief in brexit''

Still looking?

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #579 on June 27, 2022, 03:07:30 am by SydneyRover »
Kato, did I ever mention I'm not interested in politics either? I just happened upon this political thread and made a gazillion posts is all.

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #580 on June 27, 2022, 08:59:12 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
And from the same link above .........

''Last week the chief executive of easyJet, Johan Lundgren, contradicted claims by the aviation minister Robert Courts (and Tyke) that it was “not likely” Brexit had caused staff shortages which have led to disruption at airports. Lundgren countered that 8,000 job applications from EU citizens had been rejected by his firm because candidates did not have permission to work in the UK''





You'd think those staff would have easily got jobs in the EU countries in that sector struggling to get staff wouldn't you? Or they could easily operate the planes from the non UK leg of their airline if it was such an issue (like wizzair do).  I wonder why the issue persists in Europe too then.

Some airlines are 'wet leasing' plane and staff in Europe.

''Legal Loophole: The UK Airlines Leasing European Aircraft To Avoid Brexit-Related Recruitment Issues''

https://simpleflying.com/uk-airlines-leasing-european-aircraft-avoid-brexit-recruitment-issues/

You are aware this is not a new thing and has happened for years?

As I say if it was a brexit issue why does it persist in Europe?

I flew a week and half ago and it was fairly simple. No queues at security or passport control either side.  The only issue was the French security staff stealing something from us, bas**rds!

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #581 on June 27, 2022, 09:25:49 am by SydneyRover »
Brexit is a contributing factor as it is with inflation pud, it's inescapable that brexit is affecting all parts of the economy. It's part of the billions of pounds that the UK is missing every year from the economy, it's all these bits added together, the truck queues the 50000 extra customs staff required, the delays, the businesses that have lost money, the businesses that have moved to the EU zone the money that has been lost to treasury it just goes on and on.

Here's data on labour shortages up to around Dec last year, you may have something more up to date. The government has repeated told various industries to get used and only relent when public opinion forces their hand.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2021/12/15/labour-shortages-have-become-widespread-this-is-how-firms-are-responding/
« Last Edit: June 27, 2022, 10:04:21 am by SydneyRover »

Not Now Kato

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #582 on June 27, 2022, 08:08:44 pm by Not Now Kato »
Kato, there are some things  in your post that I agree with and I have always said that the public at large shouldn’t have been the people responsible for deciding whether we left the EU but I noticed that you didn’t reprimand wilts for mentioning “the vote” in his post that I quoted and responded to.
Maybe because he is on your side?

People should be repremanded for asking questions should they hound?

Well, what can you say...

The question to DD (in response to his question to BST about future Labour policy on trade with Europe) was about what he thinks future Labour Party policy should be. Clearly they have to have one.

Wilts, you have picked up the wrong end of the stick matey.
Read the the opening sentence of Katos volley at me and he says “the vote, as you put it”.
I was explaining to him that you had used the expression (vote) and asked him why he hadn’t jumped on you, rather than me, for calling the vote, the vote, so to speak.
I never suggested that people should be reprimanded for asking questions.

I have picked up exactly on what you wrote hound. I asked a very simple question and you asked Kato why he didn't repremand me for asking it.

If you want to argue with Kato thats between you and him, dont go dragging me into it just for the sake of it - or you will need to justify doing it.

But I am justifying it wilts.
None of my comment was aimed at you.
I simply asked Kato why he jumped on me for saying “the vote”,instead of jumping on you for saying “the vote.”
You are being very sensitive about something that doesn’t exist.

Hound, I haven’t ‘jumped’ on anyone. I simply stated what I believed should have happened given the scenario of the 2016 referendum, and the reason we are in the mess we currently are with respect to leaving the EU. It was you who asked should we honour the result of the referendum, I simply gave my view on that question - or are you suggesting I should be barred from giving my opinion?
 
I stand by my response to your question, wholeheartedly.


Kato, in my previous reply to you I said that I agreed with most of what you had written.
But then you have slightly altered the context of my post.
Your words were “it was you who asked if we should honour the result of the referendum”.
But I didn’t , I simply asked wilts that question, not everyone else, in my direct reply to him after he quoted my post.
I had earlier said that I think we have to honour the result of the referendum because there isn’t anything we can do right now to change that decision.

This is getting really silly and drawn out now.
You wrote the words below and directed them to me:

“The 'vote' as you put it”


You and I have a history on here of not getting along, probably due to you being an avid Labour supporter and me not agreeing with some of the stuff you sometimes write.
I do sometimes agree with what you write by the way.

When you wrote what you did about “the vote” part of a post of mine I had thought how odd it was that you didn’t pick up on wilts using “the vote” but chose to do so to me.

That’s it, that’s all it was.

Oh, and by the way, no I don’t think you should be barred from giving your opinion on stuff.

You have me wrong Hound, I'm not a Labour supporter.  Rather, I'm a supporter of what I believe is best for the, 'majority' - as you can't please everyone - of the people of this country.  I have particular concern for those less well off; and it is them who will suffer the worst effect of Brexit the most.  I am also an advocate of Proportional Representation as a means of achieving better representation for everyone and making each vote count.
 
At this point in time, given our First Past The Post voting system and the lack of depth of parties other than Labour and the Conservatives then I currently see Labour as the better of the two main options to better represent the people of this country.
 
The Tories have been extremely poor in everything other than the vaccine roll-out. The lies, cronyism and deceit are clear for all to see, (though it appears an awful lot of people in the country don't WANT to see it); and I have said many times that if Johnson were to walk up to some of them and kick them in the groin they'd actually thank him for doing so! The final sentence in Oliver Dowden's resignation letter is a classic example of this where he says, without qualification, "I will, as always, remain loyal to the Conservative Party".  So, without any qualification, he's actually saying that it doesn't really matter what the Party do, however corrupt it continues to be, he will always remain loyal to it.  Very 1984, Julia would be proud.
 
Then there's Russia's part in the Brexit 'Vote', (that word again!); the lack of an independent enquiry and report into the subject is very telling, as is the redacted report the Government themselves produced - particularly in light of the amount of money the Tory Party receives from wealthy Russians and the election of a Russian with links to the FSB to the House of Lords!
 
But Labour are not without their issues.  They need a clear policy, or set of policies, that will address all the failings of the Tory Party - and I see no clear sign of that at present, sadly.  They seem to be relying on highlighting the continuing gaffs and failings of Johnson in particular and the Cabinet in general to garner support.  Whilst this is highlighting the problems the country faces and can be seen as 'scoring points', it does nothing to address them.  Starmer's stance on reviewing membership of the EU in some form or other is also disheartening as any form of partnership or move to PR will be fraught with conflict, particularly with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP who are both ardent re-joiners.
 
Hope the above clears up my political leanings.

Kato, thanks for that honest and well made response to me.
You may be surprised to hear that I agree with most of that but perhaps not surprised to hear that FPTP or PR don’t enter my thoughts as I am not particularly interested in politics.
I know a bit about it but certainly don’t allow it to dominate my day as appears to be the case with some of our posters.
I am with you all the way on Johnson’s failings and think he has to go if the Conservatives want to have a chance of winning the GE, which I think is what will happen because I can’t see a split Labour support getting behind the Party in their current guise.
Just a point on Oliver Dowdens words that you highlight, I read it as him saying that he backs the Party but not Johnson.
I may be wrong of course.
Anyway, I’m glad we appear to have ended what was a daft argument and hope we can get on better in the future.

And thank you for your words also Hound, appreciated. I have had an interest in politics since I was a teenager - I was reading one of the daily's, (as I did every day at the time), when my Dad asked me what I was doing.  I responded that I was trying to keep up with what was happening in the world.  Dad simply asked me "Do you not stop to question why only so many things happen in the world to fill the same number of pages every day? If you reject that impossibility then do you not wonder what they are not telling you? And do you not question why they are telling you what they do?"  Since that day I learned to question and not accept things at face value, it seems to have stood me well.
 
In respect of Oliver Dowden's final sentence though, I was questioning the lack of any form of qualification re his support, for without such qualification it can be interpreted as I read it or as you read it, which is fine; unless you question it, and when you do, in the light of his whole resignation letter, IMO, it can only be interpreted as 'I don't like what Johnson is doing to the party but I'm happy to turn a blind eye to all the other current failings of the Party.  Far better to remove any ambiguity by qualifying his support with terms such words as 'so long as the Party returns to traditional Conservative values', or such like - then it becomes completely unambiguous.
 
Oh, and I didn't see it as an argument, rather a discussion; and I certainly agree we should all try to get on better.
 

tyke1962

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  • Posts: 3760

wilts rover

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  • Posts: 10145
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #584 on June 30, 2022, 07:24:34 pm by wilts rover »
Project Reality:


   Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
   https://www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-f9fc-4f1e-84c1-3632f194d05a

   The UK’s trade performance this year fell to its worst level since records began, heaping more pressure on sterling in international currency markets.

The country’s current account deficit was calculated at 8.3 per cent of gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2022, a deterioration from an average of 2.6 per cent across all of 2021.

It was the worst figure on record since quarterly balance of payments data was first published in 1955.

The weak performance of UK exports and a surge in imports highlight the economic effects of Brexit. The figures tally with academic studies that show a decline in exports since 2021, when the UK left the EU single market and new border controls were introduced.

From the Financial Times - free to view here:

https://www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-f9fc-4f1e-84c1-3632f194d05a

BillyStubbsTears

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  • Posts: 36596
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #585 on June 30, 2022, 11:42:37 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
That trade deficit (remember, the Brexit Death Cult told us Brexit would be great because we exported less to the EU than we imported from them so making it harder to do business with them would be a net benefit for us...)

Let's see.

1st quarter of 2016, our trade deficit was £7.3bn.

1st quarter of 2022....


















£32.5bn.

That's right. The difference between how much we export to the world and how much we import is now 4.5 times worse than it was before the Brexit vote.

SydneyRover

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  • Posts: 13576
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #586 on July 01, 2022, 02:44:49 am by SydneyRover »
''It was the worst figure on record since quarterly balance of payments data was first published in 1955''

£32.5bn.

but it's taken 6 years to get here ............... just nitpicking is all


Not Now Kato

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #587 on July 01, 2022, 03:52:10 pm by Not Now Kato »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #588 on July 01, 2022, 04:27:19 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Meanwhile. The consequence of Austerity and Brexit.

https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1542560637930405890

Of course, our retired friends don't feel the effect of this unprecedented depression in wages for working people. But out there in the working world, this is the consequence of a decade of catastrophically bad economic choices.

Branton Red

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  • Posts: 942
Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #589 on July 02, 2022, 11:24:13 am by Branton Red »
Meanwhile. The consequence of Austerity and Brexit.

https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1542560637930405890

Of course, our retired friends don't feel the effect of this unprecedented depression in wages for working people. But out there in the working world, this is the consequence of a decade of catastrophically bad economic choices.

This being a Brexit thread I thought I'd test the validity of the underlined bit of the above assertion i.e. Brexit depressing wages. The graph below answers the question: -

https://www.statista.com/statistics/933075/wage-growth-in-the-uk/#:~:text=In%20the%20three%20months%20to%20April%202022%2C%20total,percent%20while%20regular%20pay%20shrank%20by%202.2%20percent.

So total real wages consistently falling between Jul 08 and Oct 14 accounts for the UK's 2% fall in real wages over the decade to 2018 highlighted. This, together with the international comparisons, confirms with great certainty the assertion that Austerity was to blame for this.

However in the 6 years to 30/4/22 (encompassing the referendum) real wages have grown 6.3%. A healthy 1%+ per year.

In the 3 years to 30/4/22 (encompassing leaving the EU) real wages have grown 4.6%. A strong 1.5%+ per year.

This strong real wage growth is in spite of the impact of Covid on delaying pay rises/damaging the economy.

Therefore in fact we can say with some certainty that Brexit has had a positive impact on real wage growth. Billy's assertion being tested is clearly false.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2022, 11:29:24 am by Branton Red »

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #590 on July 02, 2022, 11:39:44 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Meanwhile. The consequence of Austerity and Brexit.

https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1542560637930405890

Of course, our retired friends don't feel the effect of this unprecedented depression in wages for working people. But out there in the working world, this is the consequence of a decade of catastrophically bad economic choices.

But there's also the bigger picture.  More young people active in the economy, lower unemployment etc etc.

It would be interesting to see how the wage changes since 2010 have been spread over the economy and added alongside that the impact of tax cuts too.

wilts rover

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #591 on July 02, 2022, 01:19:01 pm by wilts rover »
I have to disagree with everybody here (whats new eh) and say the economic situation has been far to complicated since 2016 to put wage growth/depression down to any one thing other than the Tory government(s) mis-managment of the economy.

Actual real wage growth in 2021 is thought to be lower than the published figures due to the ending of the furlough scheme (and workers going back to their original salaries - other than in BA)

https://www.ft.com/content/169bc232-6d9f-4006-b60e-9b7c2809026f

But undoubably this growth has been uneven. Public sector workers have seen a 6% fall year on year. And since the whole economy opened up in January real wage growth has seen the biggest fall on record - 3.4%:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/uk-cost-of-living-squeeze-intensifies-as-wage-growth-slows

Which it shouldn't have done according to any orthodox economic theory (including the Brexiteers who said EU workers going home would raise wages/living standards for UK workers) as we have 1 1/2 million job vacancies - so wages should be rising?

Brexit has not caused this fall in living standards - but nor has it helped wage growth as people said it would.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #592 on July 02, 2022, 03:12:48 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Ok Branton. Let's look at the big picture of real wages rather than picking fixed periods. To really understand how policy choices affect wages, it's better to look at a graphical representation.

First of all, let's put to bed your claim that 1% growth in real wages since 2016 was "healthy" or that 1.5% growth from 2019 was "strong".

It isn't. Not by historical comparison.



In the 62 years from the end of WWII to the Great Financial crash, real wages slightly more than quadrupled.

That's equivalent to an annual growth R of  about 2.3%. (The formula is total increase factor = (1+R/100)^n, where n is the number of years. R at 2.3% gives a total increase over 62 years of 4.10.

So the recent real wage growth is very weak by long term historical standards. It's only "healthy" and "strong" by comparison to the appalling Austerity years.

So...let's have a look at recent years.




This graph shows the utterly unprecedented collapse in real wages after the GFC. But look carefully at the left hand side. The fall up to early 2010 was small and had bottomed out by the 2010 election. We'd had a gut punch from the GFC but we were about to recover.

Then came Austerity. Half a decade of collapsing real wages. Annual drop of 2% for 4 years.  Nothing like it had been seen in the recovery from a recession since the Napoleonic Wars. THAT is how damaging Austerity was to people's pockets.

Of course, when you stop smashing your head into a wall, you have a chance to stop the pain. And Osborne did, without trumpeting it, stop Austerity late 2014. And of course, the economy rebounded and so did real wages.

Look at the graph. For two years before the Brexit vote, real wages grew strongly. How strongly? Have a guess.

Yep.

2.3% per year. Bang on the long term trend.

Then the Brexit vote.

Sterling collapsed by 20% overnight.

And when your currency collapses, inflation goes up. Which it did. Up from around 1% to above 3%.

So real wage growth had the brakes jammed on for two years before that inflation effect work through the system.

And after that, growth has been insipid at best. 1.5% as you helpfully point out Branton. Way below our long term trend. It's a difference that will mean a 10% loss of real wage level if it carries on for a decade, as the BoE suggested it will, just this week.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2022, 03:17:34 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

Branton Red

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #593 on July 02, 2022, 08:05:07 pm by Branton Red »
Billy

Thank you for the interesting if irrelevant history lesson.

Irrelevant to this debate as I wholeheartedly agree with you on Austerity's impact on real wages.

Irrelevant in fact because the 2.3% long term average you cite is sadly no longer applicable. In Western Europe since the '08 crash real wage growth has stubbornly averaged around 1% pa. 2.3% in modern times would be exceptional.

See graph half way down this article https://www.ft.com/content/ed477fe9-46fa-43d0-b315-4170763261c2

It is in considering this much more relevant statistic that I describe 1% growth as healthy and 1.5% growth as strong.

Given Covid this 1.5% average real wage growth experienced in the UK over the last 3 years looks particularly strong.

Consider how whilst over the last 3 years real wage growth was 4.6% in the UK it was in Germany (1.7%); France (1.4%); and the Eurozone (2.6%).

I therefore maintain that Brexit has had a positive impact on real wage growth.

danumdon

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #594 on July 04, 2022, 11:51:51 am by danumdon »
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/04/labour-keir-starmer-vows-cut-red-tape-not-unpick-brexit

Starmer announcing new Labour policy to not seek membership of the SM or the CU and seeking a new arrangement with the NIC, that sounds very much like what the Tories are suggesting.

Sounds like ToryLite policy, is he right? or is this a pledge that will be conveniently forgotten and kicked into the long grass after he's bagged the votes, this from a man who was a staunch remainer, can he be taken at his word? or is he just a typical politician.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #595 on July 04, 2022, 11:59:12 am by BillyStubbsTears »
It's called political reality.

wilts rover

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #596 on July 04, 2022, 12:53:18 pm by wilts rover »
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/04/labour-keir-starmer-vows-cut-red-tape-not-unpick-brexit

Starmer announcing new Labour policy to not seek membership of the SM or the CU and seeking a new arrangement with the NIC, that sounds very much like what the Tories are suggesting.

Sounds like ToryLite policy, is he right? or is this a pledge that will be conveniently forgotten and kicked into the long grass after he's bagged the votes, this from a man who was a staunch remainer, can he be taken at his word? or is he just a typical politician.

I think he is trying to appeal to people who are never going to vote for him - but I guess its up to the people who he is trying to appeal to comment on that.

However as I have said for a while now - this position only stands if he gets a majority for the next Labour government. If as looks likely he doesn't get enough votes and has to form a coalition with a pro-rejoin party - well...

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #597 on July 04, 2022, 12:56:23 pm by SydneyRover »
and no party states they will form a coalition before an election, unless it's a permanent fixture as with the Oz federal Lib-Nats

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #598 on July 04, 2022, 01:01:17 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
There's no way we can or should reopen the wounds on this at this moment.

We WILL end up back in the SM and CU. Maybe back in the EU.

But that will only be feasible when enough people in this country realise what damage they have done to our economic prospects by Brexit.

And of course the following should go without saying but, y'know.

I would be delighted for Labour to be able to make a success of Brexit and restore our prosperity in a way that made rejoining European institutions unnecessary. But I'm a realist. They won't because it ain't possible. 

danumdon

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Re: Brexit Dividend
« Reply #599 on July 04, 2022, 01:11:59 pm by danumdon »
There's no way we can or should reopen the wounds on this at this moment.

We WILL end up back in the SM and CU. Maybe back in the EU.

But that will only be feasible when enough people in this country realise what damage they have done to our economic prospects by Brexit.

And of course the following should go without saying but, y'know.

I would be delighted for Labour to be able to make a success of Brexit and restore our prosperity in a way that made rejoining European institutions unnecessary. But I'm a realist. They won't because it ain't possible. 

Never say never BST, ANYTHING is possible whilst your still alive and kicking.

 

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