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Author Topic: Brexit deal  (Read 366032 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3570 on June 13, 2019, 05:40:50 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
SS

You mean the BBC whose chief political interviewer is a Brexit supporter who has regularly been involved in trolling and encouraging abuse of the reporter who has worked extensively to find the source of Farage's funding?

The BBC who have had Farage on QT 34 times? Which is 34 times more than all other MEPs put together.

The BBC who regularly have interviews with people from the rabidly Brexit supporting IEA? That's the IEA who won't tell anyone who funds it to the tune of several million quid per year.

The BBC who just this afternoon interviewed Peter Lilley, who was pouring out gibberish claptrap about No Deal Brexit and saying that everyone who said it was a problem were conspiracy theorists?

That BBC?



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3571 on June 13, 2019, 05:49:03 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Albie.

For a very intelligent person, you are totally and utterly misreading what I thought I was saying very clearly.

1) I'm NOT saying that the Tory vote will revert back after Brexit. I'm saying it will revert back BECAUSE of Brexit, when Johnson tacks to Hard Brexit and Farage calls off the attack.

I'm not extrapolating anything from polls. I'm saying what I think the political landscape will be this summer.

You are assuming that Labour's vote will rebound because people will see that it's Corbyn or Johnson. I don't agree with that logic. And I've pointed out that many hundreds of thousands of people on the Left did NOT go back to Labour in 2010, when the alternative was Austerity. You may well have been one of them, I don't know. But given that fact, I fail to see why you think Left Remainers will be more pragmatic that the Hard Left were in 2010.

I do know all about Cummings and CA. I've written about it extensively here. And yes, that does make the political prediction situation harder. But polls are not out by more than a few%, even so.

I've no idea what you're talking about in suggesting that I quote ancient polls. That sounds like you've lost the plot to be honest.

wilts rover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3572 on June 13, 2019, 05:59:10 pm by wilts rover »
You forget the most interesting one Billy.

Sarah Sands, ex-Daily Mail & Daily Telegraph columnist, now editor of the Radio4 Today Programme (which means she decides the guests and topics that programme covers) celebrated the Brexit result with Farage, Rupert Murdoch and Liam Fox.

https://twitter.com/dylanstrain/status/976748201976975360?lang=en

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3573 on June 13, 2019, 06:43:50 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Wilts.

My typing finger got cramp.

wilts rover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3574 on June 13, 2019, 09:07:28 pm by wilts rover »
Billy

I still disagree with your analysis of how popular Johnson will be in the country - and if that will lead to an election victory. Yougov have him at 31% positive and 47% negative.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson

PoliticsHome say he is alienating for the floating voters needed to win an election
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/104363/boris-johnson-failing-appeal

We could however find out as early as next month which hypothesis is right. The result of the recall petiton for Chris Davis will be announced next Thursday. IF he is recalled there will be a byelection in Brecon, which will be a Tory/LD fight. Can Boris hold an 8000 majority - or will Welsh farmers frightened of No Deal overturn this? It may not happen, but that would be a proper test.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3575 on June 13, 2019, 09:18:13 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Wilts.

As I keep repeating, if Labour can't reunite the vote on the Left, Johnson doesn't need floating voters to win a majority.

Con 35
Lab 25
LD 20
Green 10
Equals landslide.

By the way, I know you don't believe in polls (although oddly you DO keep quoting them) but on the same site, Corbyn's figures are 26% positive, 54% negative, and Theresa May's (the worst PM in 100 years) are 27% and 49%.

Quite an achievement for Corbyn to be behind those two and be unassailable. Still, I'm sure those of you who took over the party all know what you are doing.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 09:23:26 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

albie

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3576 on June 13, 2019, 09:28:12 pm by albie »
BST,

There is no significant variation between a Tory rebound after Brexit, or because of it.
It is a distinction without a difference.

You have posted many times offering conclusions based on polling in earlier elections.

You seem to think austerity came forward in 2010. That is not so.
Austerity was underway before 2010, and it was enabled through mechanisms like PFI in public procurement.
The drive was to acquire facilities off balance sheet.

It may not suit your agenda, but you need to face up to the legacy of New Labour.
The existing direction of travel created the conditions under which Cameron/Osbourne and the coalition could follow through with their own Tory austerity package.

You say you recognise the Cambridge Analytica  input, then say;
"But polls are not out by more than a few%, even so"........completely missing the point that it is the small % at the margin which is the critical battleground.

You can lead a horse to water, so they say!

wilts rover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3577 on June 13, 2019, 09:57:21 pm by wilts rover »
Thing is though Billy, I don't trust polls because there are so many variables they don't capture. Like that one you have quoted - the interpretation of which some pollsters have called 'bonkers'.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-poll-tory-leadership-race-election-corbyn-conservatives-a8954861.html

I could of course point you to the two other polls that came out this week, both of which show Labour with a small lead, but that of course doesn't suit your narrative.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3578 on June 13, 2019, 10:39:02 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Albie.

I'm really not sure to start with that scattergun rant, but I'll have to choose somewhere.

What about the most illuminating aspect. You've gone into detail several times about your hatred of Brown's economics. Since you didn't answer my direct question, I'll assume therefore that you didn't vote Labour in 2010 on a matter of principle. Two things then immediately jump out. The first is utterly irrelevant to the discussion we are having, but since you raise it, I'll address it. Conflating Brown's economics with Osborne's that followed is a pathetically childish stance that doesn't warrant a response. What DOES warrant a response is the consequence of that opinion.

The several hundred thousand left wingers who, through that idiotic logic that you've shown, chose not to vote Labour in 2010 are the DIRECT reason why we've had a decade of stagnated NHS funding, real terms massive cuts in school funding, decimation of local council and social care funding and zero real wage growth.

That logic is, if I can't have a Labour party just as I want it, I might as well have the Tories.

But let's get onto what we were actually discussing. You, presumably, approve of left wingers who didn't vote for Brown. Because they were acting through conscience. Doesn't that apply to Left Remainers who are deserting Labour in millions? My experience (and its wide and deep) of dealing with the Far Left is that their opinion is "WE don't vote for YOUR Labour because we're principled. But YOU don't vote for OUR Labour because you're a centrist, Blairite, Red Tory, neolib class traitor."

On the issue of voter rebound, I truly haven't got a clue what you are on about now. You started off saying that I was saying it would happen after Brexit. I responded saying I neither said nor thought anything of the sort. You responded by saying it's irrelevant.

On CA and polling accuracy, I'm clearly not making myself clear so I'll explain a bit more carefully. I AGREE that CA's methods throw a hand grenade into the system. I AGREE that polls are not infallible. But none of that explains away the fact that Labour has lost something between 35-50% of its support since Xmas. And, my central point, if Johnson's Tories make up the ground that they have lost, Labour will have to do the same or risk being wiped out. My point all along is that there are obvious means by which BOTH parties can recover much of their lost support. The Tories will undoubtedly take that opportunity over the summer. Corbyn's inner circle seems determined not to take Labour's obvious route.

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3579 on June 13, 2019, 10:46:01 pm by SydneyRover »
A message from Gary Lineker

Dear SydneyRover

We’ve got some huge news for you.

The Brexit crisis is escalating. Crunch time is approaching. So the People’s Vote campaign is today launching an all-out nationwide offensive with rallies in 15 towns and cities in every corner of the country, starting in Leeds on 22 June and culminating in a massive, historic march in London on October 12.

This campaign - ‘Let Us Be Heard’ – will show the strength, the scale and the sheer bloody-mindedness of our movement. We will not allow a destructive Brexit – deal or No Deal – to be forced on us.

Our success now depends on the efforts of every one of us. So we want to see you there. And we also need your help to pay for this programme of activity – the events, the logistics, the materials and the staff that will make it happen. Will you chip in to help us in this fight?

 I'll chip in £3

 I'll chip in £7

 I'll chip in £15

Barely a year after being created, our campaign has gone from the margins of political debate to one with a real chance of securing the British people the chance to be heard through a final say referendum. We are now entering the most intense and sustained period of campaigning activity we have ever undertaken. We want you to be a part of it.

So, save the dates. And together let’s save the country.

Gary Lineker,
Leading Supporter of the People's Vote campaign

Is this the same Gary Lineker whose obscene salary is one of the reasons why that disgusting organisation, the BBC, is scrapping free TV licences for many pensioners?

What a horrible loudmouthed gobsh*te he is.

Yes Steve, that disgusting party that put the mechanism in place to phase out free licences. Tht's how the tory ideology works, give tax cuts to the top end of town wait until there is no money left in the pot then you can say the country can no longer afford free tv licences for pensioners or a NHS or ........., instead why not means test it so the those that can afford to pay do so?.

''The policy of free TV licences for the over-75s was introduced in 1999 by the then Labour chancellor, Gordon Brown, with the cost met by the government, which paid the BBC to provide the service.

However, in 2015 the Conservative government, guided by George Osborne, struck a deal under which the subsidy would be phased out by 2020, with the broadcaster having to shoulder the cost of free TV licences.

The government later gave the BBC responsibility for deciding what to do about the benefit, meaning any unpopular decisions on charging over-75s had to be made by the BBC rather than ministers.

A consultation was launched at the end of 2018, with the BBC arguing that many over-75s were increasingly wealthy and it could not afford the cost of providing them with a service for free.

The corporation argued that the £745m annual cost of maintaining the status quo would have taken up a fifth of its budget, equal to the total amount it spends on all of BBC Two, BBC Three, BBC Four, the BBC News channel, CBBC and CBeebies. The BBC estimates that the new proposal will cost it £250m a year, requiring some cuts but no channel closures''

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/jun/10/bbc-confirms-plans-to-make-over-75s-pay-licence-fee

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3580 on June 13, 2019, 10:52:13 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Wilts.
I know you don't trust polls. You keep telling me that. Usually followed by a quote of figures from a poll.

But I don't understand what poll I'm supposed to have quoted, mind. I haven't quoted ANY poll about Johnson. Certainly not THAT stupid one. I've given my opinion on how I think politics and party support will play out over the summer. Sorry not to have said what you want me to have said.

Finally, it's great that a couple of polls have shown Lab picking up. I have noticed those. If the next few fall in line that will be good. We can all join hands and dance a jig at, after 9 years of Tory rule and with the Tories in chaos,  Labour is at the giddy heights of having slightly worse support than in 1983 and 2010. And yes, these polls give us a small lead over the Tories. But NOW is not the point. The time to judge will be when Johnson does the obvious things he needs to do to pull in 3-4m erstwhile Tory voters who've gone over to Farage. My worry is that Labour on 26% in the polls won't look like much to celebrate then. So Labour needs to have a strategy for getting back into the mid-high 30s pretty damn quickly. And the obvious way to do that is being blocked by Corbyn and the 4Ms.

Now, maybe I'm being too pessimistic. Maybe Left Remainers who have currently deserted Labour WILL drift back in their millions, despite Corbyn's almost obsessive zeal to drive them away over Brexit. I deeply hope that they do. But a strategy that assumes that will happen, from a Left that turned its nose to Brown in 2010 because he didn't represent the Labour party that they wanted is...well, "risky" to put it mildly. You might even say "hypocritical".
« Last Edit: June 13, 2019, 10:58:18 pm by BillyStubbsTears »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3581 on June 15, 2019, 12:34:44 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Well, I see where Albie's getting his steer from.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1139611599789051904

We're just about to get Johnson as PM. We're 9 years into Tory Austerity. Our foreign policy is in chaos. The current PM is the worst in a century.

And Comrade Lansmann's Momentum army decides to turn it's fire on...New Labour as the source of all evil.

This is what happens when you get in a bunker and everyone who is not in there with you is the enemy. We've seen attacks on people as far to the Left as Thornberry, McDonnell and Paul Mason over the past few weeks, for having the temerity to question the doctrine of Corbynite Infallibility.

It's heartbreaking. A tiny group of ideological maniancs are systematically destroying Labour's electability and swinging punches at anyone who questions them. PRECISELY at a time when they need to be building a broad Left alliance.

wilts rover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3582 on June 15, 2019, 05:25:26 pm by wilts rover »
Interesting bit of polling here that shows the country is becoming more polarised and hardline than ever. 78% of people are purists, prepared to accept on Remain or No Deal, with only 22% prepared to compromise over a deal.

https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/06/14/a-country-of-purists-the-polling-which-lays-bare-the-death

As rightly pointed out by Billy I think it is always valid to question how poll results will actually transfer into real world votes. In this case how do these figures account for the Perterborough By-Election? Where over 50% of the electorate voted for a 'compromise' party.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3583 on June 15, 2019, 05:54:20 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Wilts.

Fundamental error of logic there buddy.

50% of those who voted not of the electorate.

14% of the electorate voted Labour. 10% voted Tory.

And then there's a contextual error. In assuming that anyone who voted for what you call a compromise party did so for the sole reason that they were a compromise party. Had I been a Peterborough elector, I would have voted Labour while passionately disagreeing with Corbyn's EU policy. Because not to have voted Labour would have risked a Farageist getting in.

wilts rover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3584 on June 15, 2019, 10:27:06 pm by wilts rover »
Billy

And your conclusion from a poll that says only 22% of electors will vote for a compromise when in reality 50% of people did is...

PS - interesting story on the home page of The Independent website don't you think?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3585 on June 15, 2019, 10:52:22 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Wilts.

I've got lots of conclusions. The biggest one is that the Labour vote from 2017-now in Peterborough fell by 18%. Which is pretty much exactly what the average of the polls is saying Labour's current national support is below it's 2017 support.

Tell me something. Are you actually relaxed about Labour's current position? Only I'm f**king incandescent about it.

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3586 on June 16, 2019, 03:29:54 am by SydneyRover »
The vacuous supporting the unedifying?

''Boris Johnson is supporting my agenda – which is why I'm supporting him''

esther mcvey food banks-r-us.

''The Conservative Party needs to become a natural home for voters in hard-working communities who have been abandoned by Jeremy Corbyn’s divisive Labour Party.

If we are to win again we have got to deliver for our people in the North, the Midlands and the regions, and we need a leader who can reach out to them''

''So prey tell mcvey, what have you delivered for the north since the second world war?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/15/boris-johnson-supporting-agenda-supporting/

drfcdrfc

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3587 on June 16, 2019, 04:12:09 am by drfcdrfc »
What posseses a working class man to vote anything other than labour?

I understand that in the grand scheme of things and after all that had been said in this thread, it's quite a question to ask.

But in reality, what posseses the working man here? Are they traitors to their people?

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3588 on June 16, 2019, 12:33:40 pm by SydneyRover »
''Dominic Raab: Tories are toast if they miss Brexit October deadline''

'The Conservatives cannot win an election unless we’ve delivered Brexit,” he added, speaking to Sophy Ridge on Sky News.

Raab also again declined to rule out proroguing parliament, if as prime minister he believed a no-deal Brexit was the right course and MPs sought to block it.

“I don’t think it’s something we would want to do,” he said, “and I think it’s very unlikely. But what’s really scandalous about this, is where people have been trying to sabotage the will of the people, and break their promises left, right and centre.”

Just remember he's talking about his own party here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! as it's the tories  that are holding up brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/16/dominic-raab-tories-are-toast-if-they-miss-brexit-october-deadline


SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3589 on June 18, 2019, 02:33:12 am by SydneyRover »
''Theresa May could yet give us the ultimate parting gift: a Brexit referendum''

"The obscene sight of Tory leadership candidates splashing out cash by the bucketload is just one of the head-clutching, this-can’t-be-happening unbelievables of this extraordinary time. Spaffing it up the wall doesn’t begin to express the revolting spectacle of wild tax cuts and eye-catching gimmicks from the same austerians who garrotted every public service. Theresa May is the biggest spender, spraying goodbye billions on mental health, schools, colleges and a zero-carbon pledge, while Philip Hammond’s Treasury declares it “immoral” to steal from the emergency no-deal fund. What does she care? She is taking her revenge on them all''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/17/theresa-may-brexit-referendum


Donnywolf

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3590 on June 18, 2019, 06:41:38 am by Donnywolf »

“I don’t think it’s something we would want to do,” he said, “and I think it’s very unlikely. But what’s really scandalous about this, is where people have been trying to sabotage the will of the people, and break their promises left, right and centre.”

Just remember he's talking about his own party here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! as it's the tories  that are holding up brexit.



As I have said many many times on here (broken record) - they say it would be undemocratic NOT to deliver on the Referendum result YET it was them (largely) who ignored the huge 33% majority* in the 1976 Referendum and brought us to this point - and that was seemingly ok

They have go so close to their goal and they aint gonna give up now

* After a trial Membership it was around 66 remain in / or to join permanently and 34 to chck it there and then

Sprotyrover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3591 on June 18, 2019, 06:51:50 am by Sprotyrover »
What posseses a working class man to vote anything other than labour?

I understand that in the grand scheme of things and after all that had been said in this thread, it's quite a question to ask.

But in reality, what posseses the working man here? Are they traitors to their people?

The current leadership!

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3592 on June 18, 2019, 01:43:05 pm by SydneyRover »
What posseses a working class man to vote anything other than labour?

I understand that in the grand scheme of things and after all that had been said in this thread, it's quite a question to ask.

But in reality, what posseses the working man here? Are they traitors to their people?

The current leadership!

Well Sproty this is what the really smart people of the world are thinking about the government

''Britain is being led to a no-deal Brexit by a political elite “which has great difficulties discerning and telling the truth”, the UK’s former ambassador to the EU has said, in a withering assessment of the Conservative candidates vying to be prime minister.

Ivan Rogers, who resigned from his post in 2017 after clashing with Theresa May’s senior advisers, suggested it was “probable” the UK would leave the EU without a deal in what he described as an act of “economic lunacy”.

He said the Tory leadership election brought to mind the quote of the French statesman Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord about the Bourbons in that they had “learned nothing and forgotten nothing”.

“We hear all manner of undeliverable promises, made as if the events of the last three years have made no impact on the collective consciousness,” Rogers said of the remaining leadership candidates''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/18/uk-led-towards-no-deal-brexit-by-untruthful-elite-says-ex-eu-envoy-ivan-rogers

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3593 on June 18, 2019, 03:40:33 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
This is simply astonishing.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye

59% of Tory members would be prepared to see civil war in Northern Ireland.
60% would be prepared to see significant damage to our economy, with the attendant huge reductions in our living standards.
63% would be prepared to see the break up of the UK.

Just so long as we get Brexit...

This isn't logical thinking. This is an obsessive death cult.

It's become like Gollum and the ring.

And here's the really bizarre thing. Back in the early 2010's, only a slack handful of people said in opinion polls that the EU and our relationship with it was the most important thing in politics. Now, it's become the thing that defines us. and the people who will choose your new PM this summer are overwhelmingly prepared to see us brought to our knees, just so long as we get Brexit.


BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3594 on June 18, 2019, 05:14:01 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Well now. This looks like fun.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/18/brexit-party-check-donations-for-illegal-funding-nigel-farage

Farage has been told that his party needs to check the source of all the donations it received in the run up to the EU elections. And to return it or give the money to the Treasury if it cannot demonstrate that the donations came from bona fide UK citizens.

Which will be a tad difficult for him to do, because their funding page was deliberately and consciously set up so that they DIDN'T check who the money was coming from.

i_ateallthepies

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3595 on June 18, 2019, 09:00:13 pm by i_ateallthepies »
“They need to go back and look at the payments they have received, over or under £500, and they need to satisfy themselves that they are sure those amounts of money are permissible. And if they are not, they need to forfeit those amounts of money."

“It’s for the party to satisfy themselves of that"

WTF!!! What is this 'digital, culture, media and sport committee'.  What about doing all of that for them and then taking some action against them when you get proof of what they've done?!!!

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3596 on June 18, 2019, 09:43:12 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Pies.

The Electoral Commission has said that they want to be sat at the side of them when the BP do those checks.

The EC has to be seen to be whiter than white in the current febrile atmosphere.

But the noose is closing on the crooked bas**rds.

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3597 on June 18, 2019, 11:37:56 pm by SydneyRover »
This is simply astonishing.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye

59% of Tory members would be prepared to see civil war in Northern Ireland.
60% would be prepared to see significant damage to our economy, with the attendant huge reductions in our living standards.
63% would be prepared to see the break up of the UK.

Just so long as we get Brexit...

This isn't logical thinking. This is an obsessive death cult.

It's become like Gollum and the ring.

And here's the really bizarre thing. Back in the early 2010's, only a slack handful of people said in opinion polls that the EU and our relationship with it was the most important thing in politics. Now, it's become the thing that defines us. and the people who will choose your new PM this summer are overwhelmingly prepared to see us brought to our knees, just so long as we get Brexit.
[/quote

This is unbelievable, if I can't have it I going to smash it into little pieces-so there.

SydneyRover

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3598 on June 19, 2019, 01:04:20 pm by SydneyRover »
The times are a-changing but not fast enough.

''MPs take Met to court over leave campaign investigation delays''

''A group including three MPs has begun a legal bid to challenge police over delays to the investigation into alleged offences by leave campaigners in the Brexit referendum.

The application for judicial review says that it is nearly a year since the Metropolitan police were given evidence connected to the Vote Leave and Leave.EU campaigns and the delays were “exceptional, unjustified and in breach of the proposed defendants’ respective duties”.

''The National Crime Agency is also looking into allegations of multiple criminal offences by Banks and Bilney, it announced in November.

In October the Conservative MP Damian Collins asked the Met why it had not opened a formal investigation into the allegations, following reports the force had delayed the process due to “political sensitivities”.

Lets hope they get their day in court well before October.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/19/mps-take-met-to-court-over-leave-campaign-investigation-delays


Bentley Bullet

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Re: Brexit deal
« Reply #3599 on June 19, 2019, 05:07:06 pm by Bentley Bullet »
Is that why there are vote fiddling allegations in Peterborough, a sort of 'justified' means of stopping the Brexit party from winning? ....Or are we saying nowt about that until it's proved! Guilty until innocent like, you know like the way proper grown-ups act?

 

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