Brexit deal

[Not Now Kato]

Fair play to all those Brexiteers who said the German car industry would loose jobs over Brexit, well fair play to you - you were right again. Ford is closing its engine plant at Bridgend with the loss of 2000 jobs. Congratulations.

https://www.ft.com/content/7901282a-87b6-11e9-97ea-05ac2431f453

Have ford not said it’s nothing to do with brexit?

''The former Wales first minister Carwyn Jones, the assembly member for Bridgend, turned up at the plant to offer support to sacked workers. He believes the threat of a no-deal Brexit has played a part in Ford’s decision''

“I think the worry of the impact of a no deal has played its part. It might have made Ford reassess its investment strategy in the UK. That’s the tragedy for the workers. All that is happening in Westminster, the climate it creates, has an outcome for the workers here. My focus now is to keep this plant open if at all possible. I’ll fight for it.”

With an ever dwindling amount of money in people's pockets due to brexit coma and Austrerity it's no wonder ford are pulling out BP

Stuart Rowley, President of Ford Europe “This action has nothing to do with Brexit and the simple way to think of it is, if Brexit had never happened would there be a different decision, and the answer to that is no.”

Remainers: “I don’t believe it.”

You're absolutely right HA, Brexit had nothing whatsoever to do with that decision.  In fact, Brexit has had nothing to do with British Steel or indeed any of the other ills that have befallen the UK since the vote to leave.
 
We are also going to give the NHS the £350M a week we send to the EU, it said so on the side of a bus, and BJ said so too.
 
The reason our GDP is lower than it should be is nothing to do with Brexit, Farage said so.
 
In fact all our problems are down to the EU.  It's all their fault. We should leave, now.  And if things get worse it either would have happened anyway or it will be the fault of the EU - I read it all in the Daily Mail.

NNK

Come on! Look at it this way

The Head of Ford Europe says it’s not Brexit
The workers said this has been in the cards for years
Industry commentators say this is due to worldwide economics and changing demand
Even larger redundancies are taking place across Europe

And yet, despite this you insist on blaming Brexit? Tell me, who did you blame in 2005 when MG Longbridge closed?

Look, if Brexit was to blame then I’d be absolutely holding that candle. But it isn’t and that’s that

HA.  I though the tongue-in-cheek nature of my post would have been the giveaway!  I was parodying how some Brexiters on here respond to facts.
 
Having said that, whilst I fully accept that Brexit was not the cause of fords decision to close a rather old factory, I can't believe that it wasn't one of the considerations in arriving at that decision.
 
The change in demand part is interesting though.  Yes, there is a definite move away from fossil fuel driven vehicles, (so far as direct propulsion is concerned - electricity will continue to be produced by fossil fuel, at least in part, for a long time yet), but demand for petrol/diesel powered vehicles will continue for quite some time.  There are a number of reasons for this, not least that electric power is in its infancy so far as motor vehicles are concerned, the infrastructure to support them isn't there in sufficient volume, there are parts of the world where the technology is inappropriate or unaffordable etc etc.  This demand will require to be fulfilled and, unless Ford has plans for a new design of engine, (I have no idea whether they do or not), those same engines will have to be built somewhere.  If that is so then cost has to have been a factor taken into consideration.  Given that we seem to be evermore moving towards a No Deal situation, (either by default or desire), the costs of producing those engines in the UK will have been part of those considerations; and those costs would certainly be significantly higher after a hard Brexit - and then there's likely customs delays, paperwork etc!  All of which would have an effect.
 
As to Longbridge, it suffered much in the same way as Leyland and others before them - lack of investment, poor management and diabolical industrial relations, (from both sides).  A malaise common in British industry - and on this I speak from much experience!
 

[Herbert Anchovy]

NNK

If I mis interpreted the message and tone of your post then I apologise

[Not Now Kato]

NNK

If I mis interpreted the message and tone of your post then I apologise

No problem HA, and no apology needed.  I don't always get what I'm trying to put over right, I should have used a smiley or two. 

[idler]

That’s a lesson for a few posters on here of how to resolve a potential misunderstanding.
Well done chaps.👍🙂

[SydneyRover]

Gove says he will scrap VAT and sprinkle some fairy dust around we'll all live happily ever after.

Sunday Tele

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-48570896

While the Sunday Mirror says most of them are dopes.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Angel dust, surely?

[SydneyRover]

Angel dust, surely?

hehe

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fantastic news!

After 3 years, we've finally signed a draft free trade agreement with a major economy. The agreement with South Korea will kick in after Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48577667

"The agreement is roughly in line with the terms of the existing Korea-EU FTA."

Remind me again. What was Brexit supposed to be about?

[SydneyRover]

Fantastic news!

After 3 years, we've finally signed a draft free trade agreement with a major economy. The agreement with South Korea will kick in after Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48577667

"The agreement is roughly in line with the terms of the existing Korea-EU FTA."

Remind me again. What was Brexit supposed to be about?

"The deal is significant as it eased uncertainties sparked by Brexit, amid the already challenging environment for exports on the escalating trade row between Washington and Beijing," Ms Yoo said.

South Korea - Asia's fourth largest economy - is a global leader in electronics, steel and auto industry.

SK will help supply the cars and steel we will no longer make?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile. Now the Brexit-panic stockpiling boost to GDP has stopped...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1TB0VU

[Not Now Kato]

This guy sums up pretty accurately, in 96 seconds, where we as a country are right now.
 
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2019/06/10/this-96-second-take-on-the-state-of-english-politics-went-viral-because-it-nails-it-so-well/?fbclid=IwAR3YhnGE0OZyLNSCP_N2xFmTtV0vAG8tg33e3rAcW0z00kFput0DbdDCNt8&tb_cb=2

[wilts rover]

In the latest installment of the world has gone mad and you just don't know what is actual news or fake news - Oliver Letwin and all the other party leaders (apart from the DUP) have joined Corbyn in signing an official Labour motion to be debated tomorrow to allow parliament to block a No Deal Brexit.

That's confirmed marxist and IRA terrorist Jeremy Corbyn and the man who devised the Poll Tax for Margaret Thatcher and was David Cameron's fixer, putting a joint motion to Parliament.

And if you don't know why that is amazing - google it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well now.

All this talk about how Brexit is all about supporting democracy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1138391996349984768

Just stop and think.

45% of Leave supporters and 43% of Conservative voters would support the unprecedented action of the PM asking the Queen to close down Parliament at the end of October, in order to stop MPs blocking a No Deal.

7% of each of those would support that even though they think it would not be legitimate for the PM to do that.

Democracy eh? I'm happy for the PM to do something I know is illegal as long as it gets me what I want.

[scawsby steve]

In the latest installment of the world has gone mad and you just don't know what is actual news or fake news - Oliver Letwin and all the other party leaders (apart from the DUP) have joined Corbyn in signing an official Labour motion to be debated tomorrow to allow parliament to block a No Deal Brexit.

That's confirmed marxist and IRA terrorist Jeremy Corbyn and the man who devised the Poll Tax for Margaret Thatcher and was David Cameron's fixer, putting a joint motion to Parliament.

And if you don't know why that is amazing - google it.

Wilts, I think you'd better quickly change that to IRA terrorist sympathiser Jeremy Corbyn.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Well that's put the cat among the pigeons.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48613921

What is Labour's policy now? There won't be another deal cut before October. Certainly not one that would be acceptable to the vast majority of Labour supporters. And this, on the face of it, has just given a big boost to the PM candidates who are prepared to tip us into the catastrophe of No Deal.

[wilts rover]

I haven't yet seen a breakdown of the voting but I would guess that it's irrelevant what Labour's policy is because there are enough Labour MP's in Leave constituencies to decide it. If they wont vote to take No Deal off the table - they certainly wont vote for a 2nd referendum.

A more pertenent question is what will the Tory remainers, Rudd, Gaulke (May?) do if they are faced with a choice or No Deal or voting down the new PM in a vote of confidence? Because that's where we are going...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yeah Wilts, I'll agree on all of that.

Problem then comes that if the Johnson's Govt is brought down in a NC vote in September, say, but Labour is still prevaricating on its Brexit policy, we have a split centre-to-left electorate, while Johnson has spent the summer wooing back BP supporters through telling them how hard he is being with Brussels...

In those conditions, I'd want decent odds to bet against Johnson getting back in with a tidy majority.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fascinating (well, to me, anyway) analysis of data from a big YouGov poll of how people voted at the Referendum, and what their take on Brexit is now.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1138426160671535105

Big picture is that the following groups have moved more in favour of Remain.

Younger voters (younger than 50-60)
Voters with higher educational qualification.
Voters who are in work.
Lab, LD, Green, SNP voters from 2017.
People who didn't vote in 2017 GE.

The following have moved more in favour of Leave.

Older people (60+)
Non-working voters
Voters with lower educational qualifications.
Tory voters from 2017.

And before anyone gets the arse on, those are just the facts from that very big poll.

[wilts rover]

And that data in your last post is why I think your 2nd to last post is wrong Billy.

If Johnson leads the Tories into the next GE without delivering Brexit (and remember he is now promising No deal on 31st October) why would those people vote for him and not Farage? Who will be telling them Johnson is a liar that can't be trusted as he voted for May's deal and refused to follow through a No Deal.

So for my money that will split the leave vote letting in Labour, LD's & SNP and we will be looking to Ed Milliband to form a coalition of chaos. Or something like that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

The point is that if Labour can't pu back the Remain vote that they've lost to the LDs and Greens, Johnson doesn't NEED to pull the other groups in. The 60+ group is by far the biggest single group of voters. If he goes all Rule Brittannia and bring back those who have gone to Farage, he can easily get the Tory vote share back up into the mid-30s. As things currently stand, that would be enough for a landslide.

[albie]

Too early to call the outcomes at the moment.

8 Labour MP's voted Tory (including Mann and Flint), 13 others either abstained or did not vote.
Some thinking that they will get another shot to change their position.
They will be toast if they do not support a Labour No Confidence motion.

Some Tories might have been concerned about the threat of withdrawing the whip if they supported Labour.
This would mean that they could not vote in the leadership election.
Keeping their powder dry.

The critical vote is going to be the vote of no confidence, which Labour will table after the new Tory leader shows his hand.

How many will join the 10 Tory refuseniks today?.......How many of the Labour rebels will think on?

[BillyStubbsTears]

And once again Albie. What will be the point of a NC vote if Johnson's Tories are 15% ahead in the polls?

[albie]

False predicate IMHO, BST.

There is no evidence that the Tories would be 15% ahead at the time of a GE, Billy.
Your speculations based on the incorrect extrapolation of polling data is not evidence.

You keep reciting this stuff without any error bars.
Failure to show uncertainty is nonsense on stilts.

It is possible to regain such a vote, but not likely by any measure at this stage.
An assumption of a 15% lead is improbable.

It is clear from the Cambridge Analytica episode that the machine learning/AI data driving electoral decisions at the margin, will come into play in the final days before the vote.

The data from polls is part of the feedstock for micro targeting the undecided in the last push.

If you do not support the Labour position for a public vote, then your previous passion for Ref2 looks very odd.

You must agree that a GE is the better option because of the wider policy debate and the need to change HoC numbers?

[SydneyRover]

A message from Gary Lineker

Dear SydneyRover

We’ve got some huge news for you.

The Brexit crisis is escalating. Crunch time is approaching. So the People’s Vote campaign is today launching an all-out nationwide offensive with rallies in 15 towns and cities in every corner of the country, starting in Leeds on 22 June and culminating in a massive, historic march in London on October 12.

This campaign - ‘Let Us Be Heard’ – will show the strength, the scale and the sheer bloody-mindedness of our movement. We will not allow a destructive Brexit – deal or No Deal – to be forced on us.

Our success now depends on the efforts of every one of us. So we want to see you there. And we also need your help to pay for this programme of activity – the events, the logistics, the materials and the staff that will make it happen. Will you chip in to help us in this fight?

 I'll chip in £3

 I'll chip in £7

 I'll chip in £15

Barely a year after being created, our campaign has gone from the margins of political debate to one with a real chance of securing the British people the chance to be heard through a final say referendum. We are now entering the most intense and sustained period of campaigning activity we have ever undertaken. We want you to be a part of it.

So, save the dates. And together let’s save the country.

Gary Lineker,
Leading Supporter of the People's Vote campaign

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

That last post sounds for all the world like a Twitter thread when the Russian bots have decided to pile in.

I'm not extrapolating anything from the polls. That's a very silly thing to say because if we extrapolate the polls, both Lab and the Tories will be on zero by October.

What I'm doing is making a judgement on how I think the polls will move over the summer. With reasoning behind that judgement.

You can agree or disagree with that reasoning and the conclusions. You can ignore it.

Hey, you could even explain why you think it's wrong.

Whatever you do, I'm sure you can do better than your last post.

By the way. The final sentence in that post. I think that's where we differ in our assessment of the landscape.

You think that the wider policy issues will determine a near-future election.

I think it will be dominated by Brexit and that people who feel that Labour has betrayed them on that score are not guaranteed to vote Labour.

Just as so many people on the Left put conscience before pragmatism in 2010 and in doing so gave us Austerity, so Left Remainers may well do the same and secure PM Johnson for 5 years.

Could YOU blame them?

[Glyn_Wigley]

Bots? Scam pure and simple more like.

[scawsby steve]

A message from Gary Lineker

Dear SydneyRover

We’ve got some huge news for you.

The Brexit crisis is escalating. Crunch time is approaching. So the People’s Vote campaign is today launching an all-out nationwide offensive with rallies in 15 towns and cities in every corner of the country, starting in Leeds on 22 June and culminating in a massive, historic march in London on October 12.

This campaign - ‘Let Us Be Heard’ – will show the strength, the scale and the sheer bloody-mindedness of our movement. We will not allow a destructive Brexit – deal or No Deal – to be forced on us.

Our success now depends on the efforts of every one of us. So we want to see you there. And we also need your help to pay for this programme of activity – the events, the logistics, the materials and the staff that will make it happen. Will you chip in to help us in this fight?

 I'll chip in £3

 I'll chip in £7

 I'll chip in £15

Barely a year after being created, our campaign has gone from the margins of political debate to one with a real chance of securing the British people the chance to be heard through a final say referendum. We are now entering the most intense and sustained period of campaigning activity we have ever undertaken. We want you to be a part of it.

So, save the dates. And together let’s save the country.

Gary Lineker,
Leading Supporter of the People's Vote campaign

Is this the same Gary Lineker whose obscene salary is one of the reasons why that disgusting organisation, the BBC, is scrapping free TV licences for many pensioners?

What a horrible loudmouthed gobsh*te he is.

[DonnyOsmond]

A message from Gary Lineker

Dear SydneyRover

We’ve got some huge news for you.

The Brexit crisis is escalating. Crunch time is approaching. So the People’s Vote campaign is today launching an all-out nationwide offensive with rallies in 15 towns and cities in every corner of the country, starting in Leeds on 22 June and culminating in a massive, historic march in London on October 12.

This campaign - ‘Let Us Be Heard’ – will show the strength, the scale and the sheer bloody-mindedness of our movement. We will not allow a destructive Brexit – deal or No Deal – to be forced on us.

Our success now depends on the efforts of every one of us. So we want to see you there. And we also need your help to pay for this programme of activity – the events, the logistics, the materials and the staff that will make it happen. Will you chip in to help us in this fight?

 I'll chip in £3

 I'll chip in £7

 I'll chip in £15

Barely a year after being created, our campaign has gone from the margins of political debate to one with a real chance of securing the British people the chance to be heard through a final say referendum. We are now entering the most intense and sustained period of campaigning activity we have ever undertaken. We want you to be a part of it.

So, save the dates. And together let’s save the country.

Gary Lineker,
Leading Supporter of the People's Vote campaign

Is this the same Gary Lineker whose obscene salary is one of the reasons why that disgusting organisation, the BBC, is scrapping free TV licences for many pensioners?

What a horrible loudmouthed gobsh*te he is.

No one's forcing them to pay him that much? They're free to reduce his salary or get rid. He didn't tell them to f*ck pensioners over.

[scawsby steve]

A message from Gary Lineker

Dear SydneyRover

We’ve got some huge news for you.

The Brexit crisis is escalating. Crunch time is approaching. So the People’s Vote campaign is today launching an all-out nationwide offensive with rallies in 15 towns and cities in every corner of the country, starting in Leeds on 22 June and culminating in a massive, historic march in London on October 12.

This campaign - ‘Let Us Be Heard’ – will show the strength, the scale and the sheer bloody-mindedness of our movement. We will not allow a destructive Brexit – deal or No Deal – to be forced on us.

Our success now depends on the efforts of every one of us. So we want to see you there. And we also need your help to pay for this programme of activity – the events, the logistics, the materials and the staff that will make it happen. Will you chip in to help us in this fight?

 I'll chip in £3

 I'll chip in £7

 I'll chip in £15

Barely a year after being created, our campaign has gone from the margins of political debate to one with a real chance of securing the British people the chance to be heard through a final say referendum. We are now entering the most intense and sustained period of campaigning activity we have ever undertaken. We want you to be a part of it.

So, save the dates. And together let’s save the country.

Gary Lineker,
Leading Supporter of the People's Vote campaign

Is this the same Gary Lineker whose obscene salary is one of the reasons why that disgusting organisation, the BBC, is scrapping free TV licences for many pensioners?

What a horrible loudmouthed gobsh*te he is.

No one's forcing them to pay him that much? They're free to reduce his salary or get rid. He didn't tell them to f*ck pensioners over.

That's not what I'm talking about. I've made my feelings known on here before about overpaid celebrities thinking they're representative of ordinary people; they're not, they live in a different world to us.

As for the BBC, we all know their views on Brexit.

[albie]

BST,

OK...one more time.

"Hey, you could even explain why you think it's wrong".
It has been explained to you many times....you just cannot see it.

The extrapolation is based on your own assumptions about trend, without qualification.

It has been pointed out to you before that you cannot refer back to polling data from the year dot, from various sources, and draw any conclusion about future intentions for an unknown date.
As an analytical process it is totally invalid.

Since 2010 the variation in polling error has been growing year on year. This is alongside the rise of social media as a campaign tool.
The success of Cambridge Analytica was in micro targeting messages to voters in the short window prior to the vote.
In doing this, polls from the previous week were turned around in the polling station.
Watch the Dominic Cummins vid again;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4
You can FF to 15;45 to get the explanation on polls and machine learning.

It shows the political world you advocate is lost forever.
I am not saying that this is a good thing...it is just a reality to which we must adapt.

Once the Brexit issue is concluded, votes realign back into the earlier mould.
Your own assessment of a Tory rebound is based on this.

It is an open question as to the extent of that rebound. I also think Labour will get a rebound, in response to the new Tory leader.

Lets leave it there, and agree to disagree, before you start referring to polling information from before the Siege of Mafeking.