Coronavirus

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'll upload the daily graph shortly.

Here's a brilliant little video on exponential growth of epidemics by the way. This might explain why folk who are familiar with maths on a daily basis were so scared about CV-19, from such an early time. And why any politician who, at those early times, pooh-poohed the small number of deaths, should never be trusted with a serious decision ever again.

https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's today's graph. I actually did a "Get the f**k in!" thing with my fist when today's number came out. Not quite on the level of the response when Butler scored at Charlton, but getting there.

It's getting more certain that the early social distancing that most of us started practicising a few weeks ago is paying dividends. Massive big ups to the whole country. Nothing certain yet, but if that's the case, and we don't f**k it up from here, it's looking like we might just get out of the first wave without the NHS reaching breaking point. Got to keep working at it though.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Numbers to look out for tomorrow.

60 or less and we are dropping below China.

60-90 and we are still broadly tracking them.

90-130 and we are rising above China but not horrendously.

Much above 130 would have us heading back towards USA/France levels, but we would need to have ~350 to catch up to them.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.

[BigH]

BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?

[Superspy]

Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.

Wonder if that's why there was a delay in the number being released? Maybe they're shifting the 24 hour measure period or something?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Hang on...

This from the Dept for Health.

"Please note these figures do not cover a full 24 hour period."

Back on tenterhooks then.

Also seen it mentioned they wont add people to the numbers without family consent, which seems weird.

[Superspy]

That can't be right, it almost completely defeats the purpose of tracking the numbers, surely? To the best of my knowledge every other death at any other point is recorded in some way in official figures so why would this be any different?

[Donnywolf]

First casualty of war is truth - it is always said

Does anyone have corroboration on Chinas death toll ? Spain said to be overtaking Chinas death toll figure

Anyone got the Italy v UK stats that were on here recently as I would like to see the updated version

Cheers DW 35.6 (Armpit Temp - checked every few hours)

[knockers]

BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?

They’ve done this on the BBC news site

[nightporter]

Some interesting data here. 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-shopping-travel-data-coronavirus

[BillyStubbsTears]

BST, is it possible to break down the numbers on some sort of regional basis or, say, between London and the rest of the UK?

I'm.sure it is, but I'm not planning on doing anything with those numbers at the moment.

The whole point is that, until the numbers of deaths get into relatively big numbers in each region or country, the "trend" doesn't really exist. It's dominated by the randomness of when the deaths actually occur. Once you are getting into several 10s per day, the randomness dies down. 31 Vs 30 isn't a big difference. 2 Vs 1 is a huge difference.

Plus, I've got too much other stuff on to spend time drilling down into more detail. I'm just going to stick with the big picture for now.

[Metalmicky]

Not sure if already posted - but I thought this was interesting...

[BillyStubbsTears]

It is a nice graphic, but it is doing the rounds, sent by people (I say "people": I suspect Russian bots) who are suggesting that CV-19 is all being blown out of proportion.

That ignores the concept of exponential growth.

That graphic is just 10 days old. Already it is out of date. The number of deaths worldwide as of this morning is 21,200. (Edit: 11:05 - the figure is now 22,020...)

The global death toll is currently doubling about every 5-6 days. That equates to increasing tenfold every 2.5 weeks. Project that through to the end of April, and CV-19 is ninth on the list at the bottom of that graphic. Take it to early June and CV-19 will (if we don't stop it) have killed as many people in 5 months as AIDS has killed in 40 years.


So yeah. Pretty graphic. And a really REALLY dangerous one if people look at it and decide that they don't need to listen to advice on stopping the spread.

[Metalmicky]

It is a nice graphic

And that is why I put it on - no conspiracy or attempt to blow anything out of proportion...... at least not from me.

[Copps is Magic]

One interesting study from Iceland, showing that there are 40 mutations of the virus there. On the positive side, apparently as the virus mutates - generally less deadly (but more contagious) strains of the virus spread. Another interesting finding is that one of those strains derived from a 'football match in England'

https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/03/forskere-sporet-40-mutationer-coronavirus-alene-paa-island

Also, you may have seen in Northern Italy many doctors and mayors suggesting that the Atalanta vs Valencia match was a major source of the spread of the virus. They estimate 1/3rd (one third) of the Bergamo population was at that match.

We know the virus is aerosolised to a certain extent, to the extent that in confined spaces with close contact it can be transmitted via aerosolised droplets. There was some weird brief consensus a few weeks back among the football community that only if we put hand-sanitisers in football stadiums we could somehow avoid transmission. That was, in retrospect, very wrong.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/

[Copps is Magic]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4eu-h_owaI

I would recommend watching this guys videos. Very informative. This one talks about the role of 'fever' as a response of the body to fight viruses. In layman's terms, fever is a natural resposnse of the body and shouldn't be supressed - you body is literally cooking itself to produce good things to kills viruses.

But people chose over the counter medicines to supress fever...

[BillyStubbsTears]

It is a nice graphic

And that is why I put it on - no conspiracy or attempt to blow anything out of proportion...... at least not from me.

No problem. No finger pointing from me - I'm just saying this as a warning.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Christ almighty! USA unemployment has gone up from 5.7 million in Feb to 9 million this month.

[Filo]

3 more deaths in Scotland today
6 in Wales

[Bristol Red Rover]

Love the graphic - as BST mentions, would be better if adjusted by population eg to present population. It does significantly miss out malaria, TB and others.

[Bristol Red Rover]

One interesting study from Iceland, showing that there are 40 mutations of the virus there....

Mutations aren't something to be overly concerned with, as you say often they mutate to a weaker strain, but also there is a resistance to most if not all strains that people get from having contact from any variant. Not immunity but resistance, ie a less dangerous immune response by a partially primed system.

[Metalmicky]

The news in Spain today is full of the story that the government bought a huge amount of unreliable tests from an uncertified source because they were cheaper.

Underlines what the UK Governments advisers have been saying about testing the tests and a bad test being worse than no test at all.

[ChrisBx]

115 new deaths reported.

[ian1980]

115 is a bigger number than I’d hoped for today but could the number be out slightly if yesterday’s period wasn’t a full 24 hours meaning this period was longer??

Ie. If yesterday’s figure was 20 higher and today’s figure 20 lower, it wouldn’t look so bad a jump

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

No they did a short period followed by a normal 24hr period.  So he next few days will be interesting.

[Dutch Uncle]

Would it be reasonable as a one time rough guide to add today’s and yesterday’s and divide by 2? So 115 + 28 / 2 = ca 72?

[Filo]

115 new deaths reported.

113

[Copps is Magic]

Would it be reasonable as a one time rough guide to add today’s and yesterday’s and divide by 2? So 115 + 28 / 2 = ca 72?

I think what they have done is give figures for an 8 hour period 'yesterday' and give figures for a 24 hour period 'today', not overlapping. So if you added them up and divided by two you would technically have the figure for only a 16 hour period.

Its a little awkward, but technically now, the number of deaths for the last day is 115 (113?), as they announced.

[Bristol Red Rover]

115 new deaths reported.

113

Has a long haired semitic immigrant been employed by the NHS?