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BST given the thread I started last night, I suspect as a nation we are a lot more cavalier about the lockdown
Quote from: Copps is Magic on April 04, 2020, 02:54:33 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 04, 2020, 02:49:35 pmQuote from: IDM on April 04, 2020, 02:42:36 pmSurely any decline in the rate of deaths will have a couple of weeks lag at least to any reduction in rate of increase of infections.?Yes but the worry is that we locked down two weeks after Italy, but their death rate started slowing more than two weeks ago and ours has barely changed.That means one of two things.1) We were being more careless than them before we locked down.2) We as a country have not been as sensible as them during the lockdown. At the moment, we are not even close to reducing the death rate as rapidly as Italy was doing at the same point if their epidemic.Well, you can look at it in that perjorative sense but my intial thoughts were a) the incidence of infection is much much higher than we anticipate (for whatever reason, political, social) or b) some other environmental conditions are playing a part. Intially, age was seen to be the biggest determining factors in how well people would respond but I am reading a lot about how obseity is a major risk factor. The UK is one of the most obese countries in the world, Italy much lower.I'm not sure I get your point Copps. I wasn't saying anything perjorative. I was merely stating a fact that our rate of increase of deaths is now significantly worse than Italy's was two weeks ago and has barely changed at all in the 12 days since we locked down. Whereas Italy's rate of increase of deaths was starting to slow significantly by this time after their lockdown.Look at the graph below. Both Italy and UK locked down when the total number of deaths was in the mid 400s. It's clear that, around that time, the trends in the two countries were very similar. Both of us had doubling trends of around three days and both countries' trends tracked up to about 1000 total deaths. That suggests that there is nothing fundamentally different in the early death rate trend in both countries, whatever the differences in societal structure or background health. So it's hard to see why similar mitigation measures in each country shouldn't have similar effects. But since hitting 1000 deaths, the trends have diverged markedly. With the number of deaths in the mid 3000s, our doubling rate is about 3.8 days whereas Italy's was about 4.8 days. It doesn't sound like much, but if that difference remains, it means we would have 4 times more deaths than Italy over a month. And Italy is certainly on track to hit 20,000 or so overall.Today's data is a little better than the numbers we have had for most of the past week, and may just show the start of our doubling time increasing. Let's hope so.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 04, 2020, 02:49:35 pmQuote from: IDM on April 04, 2020, 02:42:36 pmSurely any decline in the rate of deaths will have a couple of weeks lag at least to any reduction in rate of increase of infections.?Yes but the worry is that we locked down two weeks after Italy, but their death rate started slowing more than two weeks ago and ours has barely changed.That means one of two things.1) We were being more careless than them before we locked down.2) We as a country have not been as sensible as them during the lockdown. At the moment, we are not even close to reducing the death rate as rapidly as Italy was doing at the same point if their epidemic.Well, you can look at it in that perjorative sense but my intial thoughts were a) the incidence of infection is much much higher than we anticipate (for whatever reason, political, social) or b) some other environmental conditions are playing a part. Intially, age was seen to be the biggest determining factors in how well people would respond but I am reading a lot about how obseity is a major risk factor. The UK is one of the most obese countries in the world, Italy much lower.
Quote from: IDM on April 04, 2020, 02:42:36 pmSurely any decline in the rate of deaths will have a couple of weeks lag at least to any reduction in rate of increase of infections.?Yes but the worry is that we locked down two weeks after Italy, but their death rate started slowing more than two weeks ago and ours has barely changed.That means one of two things.1) We were being more careless than them before we locked down.2) We as a country have not been as sensible as them during the lockdown. At the moment, we are not even close to reducing the death rate as rapidly as Italy was doing at the same point if their epidemic.
Surely any decline in the rate of deaths will have a couple of weeks lag at least to any reduction in rate of increase of infections.?
Why are Donny figures so low? Not only compared with the rest of the country, but compared with the rest of South Yorkshire?Are we taking the lockdown more seriously?
talking of dying , here's another one of this circus clown car government doing sweet f.a. ( or is it herd immunity ? )Home Secretary Priti Patel has been challenged to explain why travellers from coronavirus hotspots like New York are not being made to self-isolate after arriving in the UK.Self-isolation guidance for people arriving from the Chinese city of Wuhan and Hubei province, Italy, Iran or hard-hit parts of South Korea was withdrawn by the government on 13 March and has not been replaced.
It is actually amazing how its brought people out in to outdoors. I run and walk a lot and quite often can go a decent stretch without seeing people, at the minute it is massively more crowded out and about. Quite nice to see in some ways but also quite nervy given the need to avoid people.Ironic that my health requires me to exercise as part of managing it, yet being vulnerable to this you could put yourself at risk by doing so.
Filo.It's clear that the effects of their lockdowns are showing now.