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BRR.Do we have that many deaths in one month when we have a bad year with flu?And do we need to shut half the country down to keep it to those numbers?I assume your point is that you don't believe the modellers who are telling us there would have been half a million deaths if we hadn't locked down?If so, I wonder what your evidence is for that. Because currently, our deaths total is doubling every three days or so and it has been doing for a month. I'm wondering what the mechanism is that stops that apart from lockdown?
Going back a page or so I would like to take issue with BRR saying that we can't stop covid-19 without a vaccine (and a vaccine isn't about to arrive anytime soon)....
BRR.You are right that many annual flu epidemic a stretch the NHS to breaking point.But did you see the Imperial College modelling?They were estimating that, in the absence of any action to mitigate CV-19, at the height of the epidemic, there would be 20-50 times more CV-19 patients requiring ICU beds than there are ICU beds in the country. And that would mean not only that 500k people would die of CV-19. For 3 months, anyone who had a serious heart attack or stroke, or car crash or work accident would also die. Because the hospital's would not be able to treat them.It is simply ridiculous to compare this epidemic with seasonal flu. If we are lucky, we will have no more deaths than a bad flu season. But we'll only manage that by shutting the country down for months.
It probably should have started sooner idm but most people are going through enough shit and really can’t be bothered listening to some people simply trying to score political points, when this is all over there is plenty of time to question how they handled it
yes I ageee Sydney was just fed up of the haters but will not rise to it anymore Quote from: bpoolrover on April 03, 2020, 12:51:33 pmIt probably should have started sooner idm but most people are going through enough shit and really can’t be bothered listening to some people simply trying to score political points, when this is all over there is plenty of time to question how they handled itSuch as 'how is the mayor of London' going?
Spanish Flu had three waves in the UK, many theories on why. As for it being corona, I don't know, but thought I'd read conclusive evidence of it being flu. I'll try and check that out again.
Surely any decline in the rate of deaths will have a couple of weeks lag at least to any reduction in rate of increase of infections.?
Quote from: IDM on April 04, 2020, 02:42:36 pmSurely any decline in the rate of deaths will have a couple of weeks lag at least to any reduction in rate of increase of infections.?Yes but the worry is that we locked down two weeks after Italy, but their death rate started slowing more than two weeks ago and ours has barely changed.That means one of two things.1) We were being more careless than them before we locked down.2) We as a country have not been as sensible as them during the lockdown. At the moment, we are not even close to reducing the death rate as rapidly as Italy was doing at the same point if their epidemic.
Quote from: IDM on April 04, 2020, 02:42:36 pmSurely any decline in the rate of deaths will have a couple of weeks lag at least to any reduction in rate of increase of infections.?Yes, but not really related to what I said to be honest.
Positive news on the number of cases. The increase has dipped below 10% for the first time. Less positive news on the deaths. If the same rate of increase continues we will have 13160 deaths in the UK by the end of the next five days. The rate of increase of deaths is much higher than Italy at similar stages.
Quote from: Copps is Magic on April 04, 2020, 02:33:54 pmPositive news on the number of cases. The increase has dipped below 10% for the first time. Less positive news on the deaths. If the same rate of increase continues we will have 13160 deaths in the UK by the end of the next five days. The rate of increase of deaths is much higher than Italy at similar stages.By the way Copps - have you any idea whether the huge carnival celebrations in the south of the Netherlands (especially Maastricht) took place in late February this year? I see New Orleans may be suffering from letting Mardi Gras take place.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on April 04, 2020, 02:49:35 pmQuote from: IDM on April 04, 2020, 02:42:36 pmSurely any decline in the rate of deaths will have a couple of weeks lag at least to any reduction in rate of increase of infections.?Yes but the worry is that we locked down two weeks after Italy, but their death rate started slowing more than two weeks ago and ours has barely changed.That means one of two things.1) We were being more careless than them before we locked down.2) We as a country have not been as sensible as them during the lockdown. At the moment, we are not even close to reducing the death rate as rapidly as Italy was doing at the same point if their epidemic.Well, you can look at it in that perjorative sense but my intial thoughts were a) the incidence of infection is much much higher than we anticipate (for whatever reason, political, social) or b) some other environmental conditions are playing a part. Intially, age was seen to be the biggest determining factors in how well people would respond but I am reading a lot about how obseity is a major risk factor. The UK is one of the most obese countries in the world, Italy much lower.