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Quote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 06:47:24 amThey’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December.
They’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them
When you say certificate do you mean the card they gave you when you had your jabs?
Quote from: ravenrover on July 22, 2021, 03:09:42 pmWhen you say certificate do you mean the card they gave you when you had your jabs?I think he means he's been certified.....
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 23, 2021, 09:42:42 amQuote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 06:47:24 amThey’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December. School, universities, more people in workplaces seems an obvious thing in September plus poorer weather. Essentially the uni term "Freshers flu" effect that happens every year. Right now universities, schools all closed and many not in offices etc.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 23, 2021, 09:42:42 amQuote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 06:47:24 amThey’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December. I didn’t say it would be riskier! But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions. Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early. It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do
Quote from: drfchound on July 23, 2021, 07:06:49 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 22, 2021, 10:57:35 pmBFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?Hindsight will tell us.And some people will excuse the government's actions whatever they turn out to be. A government that has droppd all restrictions whilst a pandemic is raging through its population - unlike every other country in the world and against WHO and apparently its own scientific advise.The more people who have the disease the more disruption it will cause the health service and the economy.Only 55% of the population (70% of all adults) have had two jabs.Vaccines are not 100% effective and recent data shows there is a link between the more vulnerable you are - the less chance of the vaccine working.2 million people received a shielding letter.The more covid there is around, the more chance of a new, vaccine resistant varient emerging.None of that is hindsight. It's all plain sight.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 22, 2021, 10:57:35 pmBFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?Hindsight will tell us.
BFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?
Quote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 12:42:10 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 23, 2021, 09:42:42 amQuote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 06:47:24 amThey’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December. I didn’t say it would be riskier! But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions. Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early. It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do Apologies Dickos, I must have misunderstood this "doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so."I've no idea what you are talking about regarding last summer. I cannot recall anyone complaining that the Govt didn't use the school holidays as a firebreak in 2020. What they complained about was the lack of action on getting Test and Trace up to standard during last Summer.
36k new cases today so 3 rd day in a row it's gone down, unfortunately 64 deaths
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 23, 2021, 01:08:55 pmQuote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 12:42:10 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 23, 2021, 09:42:42 amQuote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 06:47:24 amThey’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December. I didn’t say it would be riskier! But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions. Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early. It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do Apologies Dickos, I must have misunderstood this "doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so."I've no idea what you are talking about regarding last summer. I cannot recall anyone complaining that the Govt didn't use the school holidays as a firebreak in 2020. What they complained about was the lack of action on getting Test and Trace up to standard during last Summer.I never mentioned last summer, Last sept/October, the government were getting slated for not waiting until October half term to relax restrictions, Northern Ireland waited but we relaxed earlier.Turned out Northern Ireland re-opened after half term for a week before being forced to lock down again. As for waiting now and relaxing in the autumn/winter, then this is one of the things scientists seem to agree on, Virus’s become much more dominant in the colder weather, we saw that last year, from Having very few cases in the summer they went crazy once the weather turned throw into the mix that flu is expected to go through the roof this winter and also the fact schools will be starting back up it’s a certain recipe for disaster. And a sensible man such as yourself would realise this if you weren’t just obsessed with criticising anything the tories say or do.
Quote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 12:42:10 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 23, 2021, 09:42:42 amQuote from: dickos1 on July 23, 2021, 06:47:24 amThey’re never going to be certain it’s going to work out, doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so.Which is why there’s so much debate amongst scientists, there’s not right or wrong answer however much people try and say there is there just isn’t.The government have to make the tough decisions and live by them How do you know opening up in September would be riskier?The SAGE modellers have not been asked to model that option. They were asked to model opening up now or opening up in December. I didn’t say it would be riskier! But the point is nobody knows, all the critics spent last year moaning that the government didn’t use the school holidays as a fire breaker when releasing restrictions. Yet now that’s exactly what they’re doing and people are moaning that they’re doing it too early. It’s stuff like this that dilutes everyone’s argument because they moan whatever they do Apologies Dickos, I must have misunderstood this "doing it in September/October would be just as risky if not more so."I've no idea what you are talking about regarding last summer. I cannot recall anyone complaining that the Govt didn't use the school holidays as a firebreak in 2020. What they complained about was the lack of action on getting Test and Trace up to standard during last Summer.
Quote from: bpoolrover on July 23, 2021, 04:31:14 pm36k new cases today so 3 rd day in a row it's gone down, unfortunately 64 deaths Could we have reached the peak already? Deaths will always go up for a bit now as there’s a lag, but if cases are going down then the scenario is much better than even the government suggested
Quote from: drfchound on July 23, 2021, 07:06:49 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 22, 2021, 10:57:35 pmBFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?Hindsight will tell us.And some people will excuse the government's actions whatever they turn out to be. A government that has droppd all restrictions whilst a pandemic is raging through its population - unlike every other country in the world and against WHO and apparently its own scientific advise.The more people who have the disease the more disruption it will cause the health service and the economy.Only 55% of the population (70% of all adults) have had two jabs.Vaccines are not 100% effective and recent data shows there is a link between the more vulnerable you are - the less chance of the vaccine working.2 million people received a shielding letter.The more covid there is around, the more chance of a new, vaccine resistant varient emerging.None of that is hindsight. It's all plain sight.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on July 22, 2021, 10:57:35 pmBFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?Hindsight will tell us.
BFYP"So called wave"?Hound. Agreed. And if it doesn't work out?
Schools in Sheffield finished last Friday.
After all restrictions were relaxed on Monday, people on here were adamant we would see cases rocket this week. The opposite seems to be happening, be interesting to see if it continues over the next couple of weeks
I've heard anecdotally of several families keeping kids off school for the last few days before the official closure to make sure the kids didn't cop a dose and bugger up holidays.
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1418704500458594304It's been the plan for six months to let COVID rip through the population this summer. Seems like it's only in the last few days that anyone in Govt has started thinking what that might mean in practice.