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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860857 times)

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SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15810 on January 10, 2022, 09:07:43 pm by SydneyRover »
  NR, your observations of years gone by are correct, the figures given on the radio stated that the numbers in ICU units last week numbered less than the numbers in the previous four years week for week (last Weeks corresponding  dates) before 2019 and Covid, about 3400 of which only six per cent were Covid patients

I’ve researched ONS stats for flu and pneumonia also. Given we just don’t hear about this in the news at all currently.
Between 2015 and 2019, 30,000 people sadly lost their lives every year with flu or pneumonia on their death certificate.that’s 150,000. No 28 day nonsense either.
I’ll be interested to see how many flu deaths there have been for 2020/2021.

And the nonsense bit is?



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15811 on January 10, 2022, 09:14:48 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Worth digging in to those figures NR.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/adhocs/12267numberofdeathswhereinfluenzaandpneumoniaweretheunderlyingcauseofdeath2015to2019englandandwales/finalfileflurequest.xlsx

Flu, which is caused by community-spread viruses has killed under 2000 people in each of those years.

Pneumonia, which had traditionally been a final stage of other chronic illnesses, and often applies the coup de grace to people who are genuinely on their last legs, has killed the overwhelming majority of the numbers that you quote.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15812 on January 10, 2022, 09:22:50 pm by SydneyRover »
''pneumonia is the "old man's friend"''

Not very pc nowadays but that's what is/was called by Willian Osler.

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15813 on January 10, 2022, 09:38:21 pm by normal rules »
  NR, your observations of years gone by are correct, the figures given on the radio stated that the numbers in ICU units last week numbered less than the numbers in the previous four years week for week (last Weeks corresponding  dates) before 2019 and Covid, about 3400 of which only six per cent were Covid patients

I’ve researched ONS stats for flu and pneumonia also. Given we just don’t hear about this in the news at all currently.
Between 2015 and 2019, 30,000 people sadly lost their lives every year with flu or pneumonia on their death certificate.that’s 150,000. No 28 day nonsense either.
I’ll be interested to see how many flu deaths there have been for 2020/2021.

And the nonsense bit is?

Why pick 28 days? What’s the significance?
We don’t classify any other deaths “within 28 days”

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15814 on January 10, 2022, 09:40:27 pm by normal rules »
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiw4_vZkqj1AhUDg_0HHe_bB8YQFnoECA4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ons.gov.uk%2Faboutus%2Ftransparencyandgovernance%2Ffreedomofinformationfoi%2Fdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumonia20152020&usg=AOvVaw0xMI9bAkjI1r6tBcqSVKuy

I have rounded the numbers up. But you get the idea. These are not insignificant numbers. And are the cause on death certificates.
I am no5 belittling covid btw. Just adding perspective.
The comparison of flu/ pnu deaths for 20/21 will be interesting.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2022, 09:42:52 pm by normal rules »

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15815 on January 10, 2022, 09:42:51 pm by SydneyRover »
Death certificate record the sequence of contributing factors that lead to death

''in accordance with World Health Organisation
(WHO) recommendations in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and
Related Health Problems (ICD). You are asked to start with the immediate, direct cause
of death on line Ia, then to go back through the sequence of events or conditions that
led to death on subsequent lines, until you reach the one that started the fatal
sequence.
If the certificate has been completed properly, the condition on the lowest
completed line of part I will have caused all of the conditions on the lines above it. This
initiating condition, on the lowest line of part I will usually be selected as the underlying
cause of death, following the ICD coding rules. WHO defines the underlying cause of
death as “a) the disease or injury which initiated the train of morbid events
leading directly to death, or b) the circumstances of the accident or violence
which produced the fatal injury”. From a public health point of view, preventing
this first disease or injury will result in the greatest health gain. Most routine
mortality statistics are based on the underlying cause. Underlying cause statistics are
widely used to determine priorities for health service and public health programmes and
for resource allocation. Remember that the underlying cause may be a longstanding,
chronic disease or disorder that predisposed the patient to later fatal complications.

AFAIK the recording of DCs has not changed due to covid NR.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15816 on January 10, 2022, 09:53:43 pm by SydneyRover »
Another link from ONS, which is in answer to:

''You asked
​Since March 2020 - January 2021, how many patients have died solely due to Covid-19 - not within 28 days of receiving a positive test?''

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathssolelyfromcovid19ratherthandeathswithin28daysofapositivetest

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15817 on January 10, 2022, 10:06:05 pm by bpoolrover »

Filo

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15818 on January 10, 2022, 10:13:13 pm by Filo »
Death certificate record the sequence of contributing factors that lead to death

''in accordance with World Health Organisation
(WHO) recommendations in the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and
Related Health Problems (ICD). You are asked to start with the immediate, direct cause
of death on line Ia, then to go back through the sequence of events or conditions that
led to death on subsequent lines, until you reach the one that started the fatal
sequence.
If the certificate has been completed properly, the condition on the lowest
completed line of part I will have caused all of the conditions on the lines above it. This
initiating condition, on the lowest line of part I will usually be selected as the underlying
cause of death, following the ICD coding rules. WHO defines the underlying cause of
death as “a) the disease or injury which initiated the train of morbid events
leading directly to death, or b) the circumstances of the accident or violence
which produced the fatal injury”. From a public health point of view, preventing
this first disease or injury will result in the greatest health gain. Most routine
mortality statistics are based on the underlying cause. Underlying cause statistics are
widely used to determine priorities for health service and public health programmes and
for resource allocation. Remember that the underlying cause may be a longstanding,
chronic disease or disorder that predisposed the patient to later fatal complications.

AFAIK the recording of DCs has not changed due to covid NR.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

That sums it up, on my dads death certificate the list is

Pulmonary embolism
Carcinomotosis
Carcinoma of the main bronchi

So although he had Cancer it was the pulmonary embolism that finished him off

And an added explanation which didn’t appear on the death certificate was the inquest where the coroner ruled Death by industrial disease
« Last Edit: January 10, 2022, 10:16:46 pm by Filo »

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15819 on January 11, 2022, 04:50:44 pm by bpoolrover »
Strange that Scotland have let football fans back again when there rate is higher than in England?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15820 on January 11, 2022, 05:45:40 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Strange how no-one is talking about the daily death figures which are rocketing up.

The 7 day average of deaths by date of death (rather than the more erratic deaths by date reported) went up from 113 on Xmas Eve to 161 by 2 Jan. This is always a lagging indicator, so we don't yet know how it's gone over the past week and a half, but at the back end of December the trend was pretty much exactly tracking the daily new cases and daily hospitalisations from 3 and 1.5 weeks earlier.

That is a big worry, because if the deaths carry on tracking the rise in cases, we are heading back up to 3-400 a day later this month.

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15821 on January 11, 2022, 06:11:38 pm by bpoolrover »
Strange how no-one is talking about the daily death figures which are rocketing up.

The 7 day average of deaths by date of death (rather than the more erratic deaths by date reported) went up from 113 on Xmas Eve to 161 by 2 Jan. This is always a lagging indicator, so we don't yet know how it's gone over the past week and a half, but at the back end of December the trend was pretty much exactly tracking the daily new cases and daily hospitalisations from 3 and 1.5 weeks earlier.

That is a big worry, because if the deaths carry on tracking the rise in cases, we are heading back up to 3-400 a day later this month.
while I think they will rise with numbers looking like they are coming down and hopefully more people up north being vaccinated numbers should hopefully decrease quite quickly

roversdude

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15822 on January 11, 2022, 06:42:01 pm by roversdude »
Strange how no-one is talking about the daily death figures which are rocketing up.

The 7 day average of deaths by date of death (rather than the more erratic deaths by date reported) went up from 113 on Xmas Eve to 161 by 2 Jan. This is always a lagging indicator, so we don't yet know how it's gone over the past week and a half, but at the back end of December the trend was pretty much exactly tracking the daily new cases and daily hospitalisations from 3 and 1.5 weeks earlier.

That is a big worry, because if the deaths carry on tracking the rise in cases, we are heading back up to 3-400 a day later this month.

Genuine question how does this relate to death rates for that period in pre covid years

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15823 on January 11, 2022, 06:58:27 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Pre COVID, there would typically be about 1750 deaths per day on average in January from all causes.

selby

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15824 on January 12, 2022, 01:32:36 pm by selby »
  In week 51 of last year there was just over 13000 deaths in the week  with only 6% being because of and with Covid and over 90% of the total deaths with and because of Covid were unvaccinated many with long lasting serious health issues according to a report this morning on the radio.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2022, 02:08:26 pm by selby »

Bentley Bullet

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15825 on January 12, 2022, 01:40:51 pm by Bentley Bullet »
« Last Edit: January 12, 2022, 01:43:53 pm by Bentley Bullet »

Metalmicky

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15826 on January 13, 2022, 04:27:50 pm by Metalmicky »
109K cases and 335 deaths today...

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15827 on January 13, 2022, 04:31:23 pm by normal rules »
Reports suggest omicron has gone past peak in London. We will get a better picture nationally in the next week or two.
Could it be omigone soon?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15828 on January 13, 2022, 07:05:35 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
So the country's most famous Boston Utd fan, Jonathan van Tam is stepping down.

Should have been sacked last year. He's obviously part of the World Government, pulling the bas**rd strings.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/video/topvideos/3-0-can-become-4-3-jvts-latest-covid-metaphor/vp-BB1e3g6a

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15829 on January 13, 2022, 07:47:17 pm by wilts rover »
Reports suggest omicron has gone past peak in London. We will get a better picture nationally in the next week or two.
Could it be omigone soon?

Be another week before we know the effect of the schools going back - but yes, the sheer amount of people who have had it - surely it will be omigone over and out soon?

drfchound

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15830 on January 13, 2022, 07:49:57 pm by drfchound »
Reports suggest omicron has gone past peak in London. We will get a better picture nationally in the next week or two.
Could it be omigone soon?

Be another week before we know the effect of the schools going back - but yes, the sheer amount of people who have had it - surely it will be omigone over and out soon?


On the news earlier this evening someone said that the virus is running out of people to infect.

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15831 on January 14, 2022, 12:08:17 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Given that the spread rate of Covid in hospitals is so high, surely this nails the mask debate once and for all?

Masks have been required in all areas of hospitals for a very long time now and yet just under half of people get Covid in hospital when they are in for something else.

Just a thought.

My kid has returned to secondary school today. She was supposed to go back on tuesday but the school closed for 3 days prior to going back to test all the pupils on site.

Quite why they don't just test at home like they normally do and then report the result is beyond me and then school would not be used as a testing site for 3 days.

This has happened 3 times now and 9 days of school have been missed due to the school closing to do mass asymptomatic testing at the school when kids could just test at home before they go back like normal and no need to delay the reopening of the school.

I have queried this and sent a freedom of information request to the school to find out how much the school is receiving as i reckon they do the testing in school because they get funding from the Government to test and the school would rather have the cash than provide the education they are legally obliged to provide.

The headteacher will no doubt send parents a snotty letter in a few months reminding parents of their duty to ensure that their kids attend school as attendance is key to optimal learning.

The irony.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 12:27:08 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15832 on January 14, 2022, 12:28:07 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Reports suggest omicron has gone past peak in London. We will get a better picture nationally in the next week or two.
Could it be omigone soon?

Be another week before we know the effect of the schools going back - but yes, the sheer amount of people who have had it - surely it will be omigone over and out soon?


On the news earlier this evening someone said that the virus is running out of people to infect.


I know, and very soon with the high levels of fully jabbed people it will just be the vaccinated infecting the vaccinated, as it mostly is now.

Then it will be interesting to find out who they blame then.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 12:37:33 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15833 on January 14, 2022, 12:58:48 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Partner has just come home.

Her mum has been in a care home for a number of months for recovery for a condition.

She tested positive for Covid in the care home about 3 weeks ago, as all but one resident did. They are all fine.

She was allowed to go back to her home on Monday to live independently and she tested negative before going home.

Yesterday she had a fall at home and had to go back into Rotherham hospital where she has a positive Covid test again!

WTF is going on? Nobody takes these tests seriously do they?
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 01:05:20 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15834 on January 14, 2022, 01:08:37 pm by ravenrover »
Is that why the school insists on them checking the pupils if nobody takes it seriously?

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15835 on January 14, 2022, 01:14:40 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Is that why the school insists on them checking the pupils if nobody takes it seriously?

Kids are supposed to test Sun / Weds every week since April and this has been deemed good enough. However, whenever they have gone back at our kids school after a break such as after Easter and after the summer holidays and after Christmas, they close the school for 3 days and invite kids in for testing.

Why can't kids just test at home on the sunday before school resumes after each holiday period if this has been deemed perfectly fine since April?

We don't test our child though.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2022, 01:22:27 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »

bpoolrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15836 on January 14, 2022, 01:54:12 pm by bpoolrover »
Partner has just come home.

Her mum has been in a care home for a number of months for recovery for a condition.

She tested positive for Covid in the care home about 3 weeks ago, as all but one resident did. They are all fine.

She was allowed to go back to her home on Monday to live independently and she tested negative before going home.

Yesterday she had a fall at home and had to go back into Rotherham hospital where she has a positive Covid test again!

WTF is going on? Nobody takes these tests seriously do they?
my wife tested positive on new year, then negative on 2 lateral flows so went back to work, did another test and work and positive again!

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15837 on January 14, 2022, 02:14:38 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Didn't all but one of the Liverpool team a few weeks ago register false positives? Sure i read that?

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15838 on January 14, 2022, 02:14:51 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
Is that why the school insists on them checking the pupils if nobody takes it seriously?

Kids are supposed to test Sun / Weds every week since April and this has been deemed good enough. However, whenever they have gone back at our kids school after a break such as after Easter and after the summer holidays and after Christmas, they close the school for 3 days and invite kids in for testing.

Why can't kids just test at home on the sunday before school resumes after each holiday period if this has been deemed perfectly fine since April?

We don't test our child though.

I think your last sentence answers your own question....

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #15839 on January 14, 2022, 02:15:56 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Is that why the school insists on them checking the pupils if nobody takes it seriously?

Kids are supposed to test Sun / Weds every week since April and this has been deemed good enough. However, whenever they have gone back at our kids school after a break such as after Easter and after the summer holidays and after Christmas, they close the school for 3 days and invite kids in for testing.

Why can't kids just test at home on the sunday before school resumes after each holiday period if this has been deemed perfectly fine since April?

We don't test our child though.

I think your last sentence answers your own question....

How so?

 

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